CF Montreal vs Philadelphia Union
Match recap
Philadelphia Union beat CF Montreal 2–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Jaime scored for CF Montreal; Sery Larsen and Bueno replied for Philadelphia Union. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.96 for CF Montreal versus 1.07 for Philadelphia Union.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-3 Philadelphia Union win
Actual
1–2
Outcome probability
CF Montreal and Philadelphia Union face off in what promises to be an entertaining MLS regular season match. Both teams have shown attacking intent this season, setting the stage for a close contest.
Match factors
Philadelphia's potent attack led by Iloski
Milan Iloski's 17 goals this season and recent 6-goal streak give Philadelphia a strong attacking edge
Owusu's scoring form for CF Montreal
Prince-Osei Owusu has 15 goals this season with strong home scoring, key for Montreal's chances
Philadelphia's 5-game scoring streak
Philadelphia Union have scored in their last 5 matches, showing strong offensive momentum
CF Montreal missing starting goalkeeper Gillier
Thomas Gillier is confirmed out, weakening Montreal's defense and increasing vulnerability
Westfield's assist threat from defense
Francis Westfield's 8 assists and set-piece role provide Philadelphia with creative outlets from the back
The context
This fixture is part of the MLS regular season, round 7. Both sides have been active in front of goal recently, with Philadelphia Union boasting a strong scoring streak in their last five matches. CF Montreal will be looking to leverage their home form, while Philadelphia aims to continue their offensive momentum.
Key insights
Milan Iloski
Philadelphia Union
Iloski's 17 goals this season and recent 6-goal streak give Philadelphia a strong attacking edge.
Major League Soccer 26/2717 goals in 28 apps, 0.61 avg per game
Prince-Osei Owusu
CF Montreal
Owusu's 15 goals this season with strong home scoring make him Montreal's key offensive threat.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals in 26 apps, 0.58 avg per game
Francis Westfield
Philadelphia Union
Westfield's 8 assists and set-piece role provide creative outlets from defense.
Major League Soccer 26/278 assists in 23 apps, 0.35 avg per game
- T
Thomas Gillier
CF Montreal
Montreal's defensive stability is compromised with starting goalkeeper Gillier out.
Analysis
Philadelphia Union's attack, spearheaded by Milan Iloski who leads the league with 17 goals, gives them a clear edge. Iloski's recent form, with six goals in the last five matches, highlights his threat. Meanwhile, CF Montreal's Prince-Osei Owusu, with 15 goals this season and strong home scoring, remains a key player. However, Montreal's defensive vulnerability is exposed by the absence of their starting goalkeeper Thomas Gillier, which could be decisive. Philadelphia's creative outlets, including Francis Westfield's eight assists from defense, add to their attacking options. The predicted halftime score of 1-2 aligns with the expectation of Philadelphia taking an early lead and maintaining it.
Key facts
- 1.Philadelphia Union have scored in their last 5 matches, showing strong offensive momentum.
- 2.Milan Iloski leads the league with 17 goals this season, including 6 in the last 5 matches.
- 3.Prince-Osei Owusu is CF Montreal's top scorer with 15 goals, excelling at home.
- 4.CF Montreal's starting goalkeeper Thomas Gillier is out, weakening their defense.
- 5.Francis Westfield has provided 8 assists this season, a key creative outlet for Philadelphia.
- 6.Head-to-head, Philadelphia Union have won 11 of 20 meetings against CF Montreal.
- 7.Average goals per head-to-head match is 3.5, indicating open games.
Prediction
We foresee a closely fought match ending in a 3-2 victory for Philadelphia Union. The away side's attacking quality and recent form should see them edge out CF Montreal despite the home side's efforts and Owusu's goal threat.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — CF Montreal
Away — Philadelphia Union
The verdict
Expect a high-scoring, competitive match with Philadelphia Union's firepower just enough to overcome CF Montreal. Fans should brace for an exciting encounter with goals and fine margins deciding the outcome.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:02 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Penalty cancelled
Gillier
Yellow Card
Jaime
Assist: Morales
Goal confirmed
Owusu
Yellow Card
Carmona
Loturi
Yellow Card
Sery Larsen
Yellow Card
Sery Larsen
Assist: Iloski
Makhanya
Yellow Card
Bender
Bueno
Assist: Alladoh
Þórhallsson
Morales
Iloski
Sery Larsen
Unknown
Loturi
Damiani
Yellow Card
Vassilev
Lukić
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
CF Montreal
Starting XI
- 4B. VeraD
- 8M. LongstaffM
- 9P. OwusuF
- 10Iván JaimeM
- 13L. PetrassoD
- 16W. CarmonaM
- 17D. ÞórhallssonM
- 22V. LoturiM
- 24E. MoralesD
- 27D. BugajD
- 31T. GillierG
Substitutes
- 1S. BrezaG
- 3T. AvilésD
- 5B. CraigD
- 6S. PietteM
- 7K. OpokuF
- 14D. RíosF
- 18H. SynchukM
- 21F. HerbersF
- 29O. EscobarF
Philadelphia Union
4-4-2Starting XI
- 4J. LukićM
- 5J. Sery LarsenD
- 8J. BuenoM
- 9B. DamianiF
- 10M. IloskiF
- 16B. BenderM
- 18A. BlakeG
- 19I. VassilevM
- 26N. HarrielD
- 29O. MakhanyaD
- 39F. WestfieldD
Substitutes
- 2G. MartínezD
- 6Cavan SullivanM
- 11A. BedoyaM
- 14J. RafanelloM
- 20P. Ndinga OssibadjouoD
- 23E. AlladohF
- 51M. JakupovicF
- 66F. SundstromD
- 76A. RickG
CF Montreal
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iván Jaime | M | 90 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2/4 |
| Thomas Gillier | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Efraín Morales | D | 70 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Prince-Osei Owusu(C) | F | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Wikelman Carmona | M | 37 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Luca Petrasso | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Victor Loturi | M | 82 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| Matthew Longstaff | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Dagur Dan Þórhallsson | M | 70 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Dawid Bugaj | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| Brayan Vera | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Brandan Craig | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Rios | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sebastian Breza | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samuel Piette | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hennadiy Synchuk | M | 20 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Fabian Herbers | F | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Olger Escobar | F | 8 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomás Avilés | D | 20 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Kwadwo Opoku | F | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Philadelphia Union
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japhet Sery Larsen | D | 81 | 8.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Jesus Bueno | M | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Andre Blake(C) | G | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Damiani | F | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 4 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Milan Iloski | F | 81 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Nathan Harriel | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Indiana Vassilev | M | 88 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Ben Bender | M | 65 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Frankie Westfield | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Jovan Lukić | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Olwethu Makhanya | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Geiner Martínez | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Finn Sundstrom | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Malik Jakupovic | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Rafanello | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrew Rick | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ezekiel Alladoh | F | 25 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Philippe Ndinga | D | 9 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Alejandro Bedoya | M | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Cavan Sullivan | M | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win CF Montreal vs Philadelphia Union?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Philadelphia Union to win against CF Montreal.
- What score did Fipster predict for CF Montreal vs Philadelphia Union?
- Fipster predicted a final score of CF Montreal 2–3 Philadelphia Union.
- What were the win probabilities for CF Montreal vs Philadelphia Union?
- Fipster's model gave CF Montreal a 16% chance of winning, Philadelphia Union a 68% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 68% confidence — a high-confidence call.