CF Montreal vs New York City FC
Match recap
CF Montreal beat New York City FC 1–0 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Owusu scored for CF Montreal. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.95 for CF Montreal versus 0.43 for New York City FC.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-2 CF Montreal win
Actual
1–0
Outcome probability
CF Montreal and New York City FC face off in what promises to be a lively MLS regular season match. Both teams boast attacking talents capable of lighting up the scoreboard, setting the stage for a close contest.
Match factors
Montreal's attacking trio in form
Owusu and Ríos lead Montreal's attack with strong recent scoring, supported by creative midfielders
Ojeda's playmaking edge for NYCFC
Ojeda's 10 assists and recent form provide NYCFC a creative edge to unlock Montreal's defense
Montreal missing starting goalkeeper Gillier
Gillier is confirmed out, potentially weakening Montreal's defensive stability
Montreal's home scoring strength vs NYCFC's away defense
Montreal averages 1.36 goals at home, while NYCFC concedes 1.21 goals away, favoring Montreal's attack
Montreal's recent scoring streak
Montreal has scored in 4 of last 5 home games, showing positive attacking momentum
The context
This fixture is part of the MLS regular season's 10th round. Historically, New York City FC have had the upper hand in head-to-head meetings, but Montreal's recent home scoring form suggests they are ready to challenge that trend.
Key insights
Prince-Osei Owusu
CF Montreal
Owusu leads Montreal's attack with 15 goals and a strong home scoring rate, making him a key threat in this fixture.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals in 26 apps, 0.8 goals/game in last 10 home matches
Agustin Ojeda
New York City FC
Ojeda's 10 assists this season, including 4 in the last 5 games, provide NYCFC with creative edge to unlock Montreal's defence.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 assists in 28 apps, 4 assists in last 5 games
Luca Petrasso
CF Montreal
Petrasso's crossing and set-piece delivery make him Montreal's top assisting defender, adding to their attacking options.
Major League Soccer 26/273 assists in 26 apps
Nicolás Fernández Mercau
New York City FC
Mercau's pace and dribbling skills pose a tactical challenge for Montreal's defence, contributing 15 goals and 4 assists this season.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals and 4 assists in 27 apps
Analysis
Montreal's attack is spearheaded by Prince-Osei Owusu, who leads the team with 15 goals this season and has been particularly effective at home, scoring 0.8 goals per game in his last 10 home matches. Supporting him is Daniel Ríos, who has netted three times in his last five appearances. On the other side, New York City FC rely heavily on Nicolás Fernández Mercau, their top scorer with 15 goals, and playmaker Agustin Ojeda, who has provided 10 assists this season and is in excellent recent form. Montreal's defensive stability might be tested due to the absence of their starting goalkeeper Gillier, which could give NYCFC opportunities to exploit. However, Montreal's home scoring average of 1.36 goals per game and recent streak of scoring in four of their last five home matches give them a slight edge in this encounter.
Key facts
- 1.CF Montreal have scored in 4 of their last 5 home games this season.
- 2.Prince-Osei Owusu leads Montreal with 15 goals, averaging 0.58 goals per game.
- 3.New York City FC's Nicolás Fernández Mercau also has 15 goals this season.
- 4.Agustin Ojeda tops NYCFC's assists chart with 10 this season, including 4 in the last 5 games.
- 5.Montreal's starting goalkeeper Gillier is out, potentially affecting their defensive solidity.
- 6.In 20 head-to-head matches, NYCFC have won 11 times, Montreal 5, with 4 draws.
- 7.Head-to-head matches average 2.0 goals, with NYCFC scoring more overall (28) than Montreal (13).
- 8.Montreal averages 1.36 goals per home game; NYCFC concedes 1.21 goals away.
Prediction
Despite New York City FC's attacking threats and historical head-to-head advantage, the prediction leans towards a home win for CF Montreal with a 3-2 scoreline. The match is expected to be a high-scoring affair with both sides finding the net, but Montreal's home form and attacking trio should see them edge this one.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — CF Montreal
Away — New York City FC
The verdict
Expect an entertaining match with plenty of goals and attacking intent from both sides. Montreal's offensive firepower and home advantage are likely to be the deciding factors in a closely fought contest.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:55 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Owusu
Assist: Longstaff
Unknown
Piette
Yellow Card
Farnos
Parks
Ojeda
Piette
Gray
Yellow Card
Owusu
Gray
Yellow Card
Gray
Red Card
Fernández Mercau
Yellow Card
Escobar
Yellow Card
Moralez
Vera
Yellow Card
Longstaff
Yellow Card
Neal
Bugaj
Yellow Card
Trewin
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
CF Montreal
4-3-3Starting XI
- 2J. NealD
- 4B. VeraD
- 6S. PietteM
- 8M. LongstaffM
- 9P. OwusuF
- 10Iván JaimeF
- 13L. PetrassoD
- 22V. LoturiM
- 27D. BugajD
- 31T. GillierG
Substitutes
- 1S. BrezaG
- 5B. CraigD
- 7K. OpokuF
- 14D. RíosF
- 17D. ÞórhallssonM
- 21F. HerbersF
- 24E. MoralesD
- 26I. LosenkoM
- 29O. EscobarF
New York City FC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5K. TrewinD
- 7N. Fernández MercauF
- 10M. MoralezM
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 21A. O'NeillM
- 22K. O'TooleD
- 24T. GrayD
- 26A. OjedaM
- 49M. FreeseG
- 55K. ParksM
- 87A. FarnosM
Substitutes
- 2Nico CavalloD
- 8A. PereaM
- 11Talles MagnoF
- 19S. TanasijevićD
- 29M. CarrizoM
- 30T. RomeroG
- 32J. ShoreM
- 34Raul GustavoD
- 99S. ReidF
CF Montreal
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Longstaff | M | 90 | 8.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 4 | — |
| Prince-Osei Owusu | F | 75 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Jalen Neal | D | 87 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thomas Gillier | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Victor Loturi | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/3 |
| Brayan Vera | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Luca Petrasso | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/4 |
| Dawid Bugaj | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Samuel Piette(C) | M | 70 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Noah Streit | F | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| Iván Jaime | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Kwadwo Opoku | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brandan Craig | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sebastian Breza | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dagur Dan Þórhallsson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ivan Losenko | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Rios | F | 15 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabian Herbers | F | 20 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Efraín Morales | D | 10 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Olger Escobar | F | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
New York City FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Fernández | F | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3/4 |
| Aiden O'Neill | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 3/3 |
| Thiago Martins(C) | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Kai Trewin | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Arnau Farnos | M | 65 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Keaton Parks | M | 65 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Matthew Freese | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tayvon Gray | D | 77 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin O'Toole | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Maxi Moralez | M | 82 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Agustin Ojeda | M | 65 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Jonathan Shore | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomás Romero | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Máximo Carrizo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nico Cavallo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Strahinja Tanasijević | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raul Gustavo | D | 25 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrés Perea | M | 8 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Talles Magno | F | 25 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Seymour Garfield-Reid | F | 25 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win CF Montreal vs New York City FC?
- Fipster's AI model predicted CF Montreal to win against New York City FC.
- What score did Fipster predict for CF Montreal vs New York City FC?
- Fipster predicted a final score of CF Montreal 3–2 New York City FC.
- What were the win probabilities for CF Montreal vs New York City FC?
- Fipster's model gave CF Montreal a 35% chance of winning, New York City FC a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.