Celta Vigo vs Alaves
Celta Vigo edge past Alaves in tight contest
Jutglà and Rodríguez secure a narrow home win despite Novoa's late reply.
Celta Vigo claimed a 2-1 victory over Alaves in La Liga, with Ferran Jutglà opening the scoring early in the second half and Javi Rodríguez doubling the lead before the hour mark. Hugo Novoa pulled one back for Alaves late on, but it wasn't enough to prevent the hosts from taking all three points. Fipster's prediction of a home win was spot on, though the actual scoreline was a bit closer than the forecasted 2-0.
Outcome probability
Celta Vigo and Alaves face off in the ninth round of the La Liga season, with both sides eager to improve their league standing. Celta, currently 15th, look to leverage their home advantage against sixth-placed Alaves, who have shown flashes of attacking promise this campaign.
Match factors
Alaves' Lucas Boyé is a key scoring threat
Boyé's 4 goals in 6 games and strong recent form make him a focal point in attack against Celta's defense
Celta's injury absences weaken attacking options
Celta has multiple confirmed outs including attackers, limiting their scoring threats and increasing reliance on midfielders
Alaves' Mariano Díaz contributes goals and assists
Díaz has 3 goals and 3 assists this season, showing good form and creativity to support Boyé
Celta's defensive doubts may expose them to Alaves' attack
Doubtful defender S. Cáceres could be a key defensive presence if fit; his absence may increase vulnerability
Alaves midfielders provide strong defensive cover
Antonio Blanco leads tackles and interceptions, helping shield defense and enable counter-attacks
The context
Celta Vigo have struggled to find consistent form, sitting 15th with just one win from seven games. Alaves, meanwhile, are in a better position at sixth, having collected 11 points from eight matches. Despite Alaves' higher league position, Celta's home performances and tactical setup could prove decisive.
Key insights
Lucas Boyé
Alaves
Boyé's 4 goals in 6 games and strong recent form make him a focal point in attack against Celta's defence.
La Liga 26/274 goals in 6 appearances, 0.67 goals/game
- M
Mariano Díaz Mejía
Alaves
Díaz has 3 goals and 3 assists this season, showing good form and creativity to support Boyé.
La Liga 26/273 goals and 3 assists in 7 appearances, 0.43 goals/game and 0.43 assists/game
- S
S. Cáceres
Celta Vigo
Doubtful defender S. Cáceres could be a key defensive presence if fit; his absence may increase vulnerability.
Analysis
The prediction leans towards a home win with a 2-0 scoreline, supported by a strong probability of Celta taking the lead by halftime at 1-0. Alaves' attacking threat is spearheaded by Lucas Boyé, who boasts four goals in six appearances, and Mariano Díaz Mejía, contributing both goals and assists. However, Celta's defensive resilience, even with some doubts over key defender S. Cáceres, is expected to contain Alaves' forwards. The match is also anticipated to be moderately disciplined, with around four cards predicted.
Key facts
- 1.Celta Vigo are 15th in La Liga with 7 points from 7 games (W1 D4 L2).
- 2.Alaves sit 6th with 11 points from 8 games (W3 D2 L3).
- 3.Lucas Boyé leads Alaves scoring with 4 goals in 6 appearances.
- 4.Mariano Díaz Mejía has contributed 3 goals and 3 assists this season.
- 5.Celta Vigo's modal predicted scoreline is a 2-0 home win.
- 6.Halftime predicted score is 1-0 in favour of Celta Vigo.
- 7.Four total cards are expected, indicating moderate discipline.
Prediction
Expect Celta Vigo to edge this encounter 2-0, taking an early lead and maintaining control throughout. Alaves will pose challenges, particularly through Boyé and Díaz, but Celta's home advantage and tactical discipline should see them secure the three points.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Celta Vigo
No standout top scorers flagged for Celta Vigo
Away — Alaves
The verdict
In summary, Celta Vigo's home form and defensive organisation are likely to be the difference against a capable Alaves side. While Alaves have attacking talents to watch, the balance of probabilities favours a comfortable home victory with a clean sheet.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 13:53 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Cáceres
Yellow Card
Swedberg
Moriba
Toni Martínez
Yellow Card
Jutglà
Assist: Javi Rodríguez
Aleñá
Toni Martínez
Jonny
Burcio
Driouech
Javi Rodríguez
Assist: Aspas
Cáceres
Novoa
Assist: Díaz
Blanco
Rebbach
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 6 |  Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 |  Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 |  Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 |  Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
Match Statistics
Celta Vigo
3-4-3Starting XI
- 5Sergio CarreiraM
- 6I. MoribaM
- 9Ferran JutglàF
- 13I. RaduG
- 18Yoel LagoD
- 19W. SwedbergF
- 20Javi RodríguezD
- 21S. CáceresD
- 23Hugo ÁlvarezM
- 24C. DriouechF
- 30H. BurcioM
Substitutes
- 1A. BayındırG
- 3Marcos AlonsoD
- 4A. FayeD
- 10Iago AspasF
- 14Aleix FebasM
- 15Álvaro NúñezD
- 16Hugo GonzálezF
- 17Javi RuedaD
- 22Javi GalánD
- 25Iván VillarG
- 28Andrés AntañónM
- 31Ángel ArcosF
Alaves
5-3-2Starting XI
- 1SiveraG
- 2N. ValentiniD
- 8Antonio BlancoM
- 10Carles AleñáM
- 11Toni MartínezF
- 14N. TenagliaD
- 15L. BoyéF
- 16V. KoskiD
- 17JonnyD
- 19Pablo IbáñezM
- 21A. RebbachD
Substitutes
- 3YusiD
- 4Denis SuárezM
- 6GuevaraM
- 9M. DíazF
- 12Hugo NovoaF
- 13A. GiménezG
- 20Aitor MañasF
- 22Miguel RodríguezF
- 23C. BenavídezM
- 24Selu DialloM
- 27X. OlaizD
- 31G. SwiderskiG
Celta Vigo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Radu | G | 90 | 8.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Javi Rodríguez | D | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Ferran Jutglà | F | 90 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| Yoel Lago | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Burcio | M | 70 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Alonso | D | 13 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iago Aspas | F | 20 | 6.8 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| W. Swedberg | F | 46 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| S. Cáceres | D | 77 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hugo Álvarez | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/3 |
| Aleix Febas | M | 44 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Javi Rueda | D | 44 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Moriba | M | 46 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Driouech | F | 70 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Sergio Carreira | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Andrés Antañón | M | 20 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iván Villar | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Javi Galán | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bayındır | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hugo González | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álvaro Núñez | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Faye | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ángel Arcos | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Alaves
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Novoa | F | 28 | 7.4 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Antonio Blanco | M | 88 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| A. Rebbach | D | 88 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| V. Koski | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Ibáñez | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 2/3 |
| N. Tenaglia | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| M. Díaz | F | 28 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jonny | D | 62 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| N. Valentini | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Toni Martínez | F | 62 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| L. Boyé | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Aitor Mañas | F | 2 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carles Aleñá | M | 62 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Guevara | M | 2 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Denis Suárez | M | 28 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Sivera | G | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| X. Olaiz | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Benavídez | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Giménez | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Rodríguez | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Selu Diallo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yusi | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Swiderski | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Celta Vigo to win against Alaves.
- What score did Fipster predict for Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Celta Vigo 2–0 Alaves.
- What were the win probabilities for Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
- Fipster's model gave Celta Vigo a 71% chance of winning, Alaves a 14% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 71% confidence — a high-confidence call.