Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg
Celje snatch late draw against Salzburg
A spirited fightback sees Celje claw back twice to deny Salzburg victory.
Red Bull Salzburg looked in control with early goals from S. Kitano and J. Lindstrøm, but Celje refused to lie down. B. Kramer pulled one back soon after the break, and A. Kučys secured a dramatic equaliser right on the 90th minute. This 2-2 draw defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a narrow home win for Celje.
Outcome probability
This group stage fixture sees Celje face off against Red Bull Salzburg in what promises to be a closely contested match. Both teams have shown glimpses of attacking prowess, but the prediction leans towards a slim home victory.
Match factors
Red Bull Salzburg's recent scoring consistency
Salzburg has scored in 3 of their last 4 matches, showing good attacking form despite predicted away challenges.
Celje's home defensive solidity
Celje's recent home fixtures include a 3-0 win and a 3-3 draw, indicating strong home goal scoring but mixed defense.
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have no confirmed absences, so full squads are expected, maintaining tactical stability.
Home advantage for Celje despite low confidence
Predicted 1-0 home win with low confidence suggests Celje may leverage home conditions against Salzburg's away struggles.
The context
Red Bull Salzburg have played four matches in this competition so far, with a record of two wins, one draw, and one loss, scoring seven goals and conceding four. Their recent knockout success includes a 3-0 home win against Mjallby AIF in the play-offs. Celje, meanwhile, have demonstrated strong home performances, including a 3-0 win and a 3-3 draw, indicating a potent attack but somewhat mixed defensive form.
Key facts
- 1.Celje's recent home results include a 3-0 win and a 3-3 draw, showing strong attack but mixed defence.
- 2.Red Bull Salzburg have scored in 3 of their last 4 matches in this competition.
- 3.Salzburg's recent knockout success includes a 3-0 home win over Mjallby AIF in the play-offs.
- 4.No confirmed injuries for either team, so full squads expected.
- 5.Home win probability is highest at 0.37 among all outcomes.
- 6.1-0 is the most probable fulltime scoreline for a home win at 0.18 probability.
- 7.Halftime 1-0 scoreline aligns with the fulltime prediction, suggesting an early goal could decide the match.
Analysis
The prediction favours Celje to win 1-0, reflecting a scenario where their home defensive solidity could stifle Salzburg's attack. Salzburg have scored in three of their last four matches, showing decent attacking form, but may struggle to break down Celje's defence. Both teams have full squads available, so tactical plans should be executed without personnel disruptions. The low confidence in this prediction stems from limited data and the tight probabilities between outcomes, but the 1-0 scoreline aligns well with the statistical likelihoods.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Celje
Away — Red Bull Salzburg
Prediction
Expect Celje to take an early lead and hold on to it through a disciplined defensive effort. The halftime and fulltime scoreline is predicted to be 1-0, with a total of four cards likely to be shown as the match remains competitive but controlled.
The verdict
While the prediction is for a narrow home win, this match could easily swing either way given the close form and limited data. Fans should anticipate a tactical battle with few goals, where Celje's home advantage might just tip the scales.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Kitano
Assist: Redzic
Tutyškinas
Yellow Card
Redzic
Yellow Card
Širvys
Yellow Card
Vertessen
Tohumcu
Lindstrøm
Assist: Redzic
Kramer
Assist: Sešlar
Tusha
Kitano
Verbič
Širvys
Redzic
Mazurek
Yellow Card
Kvesić
Kučys
Assist: Dukuly
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 |  Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 32 |  Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 33 |  Celje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 34 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Match Statistics
Celje
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1Žan-Luk LebanG
- 2P. ŠirvysD
- 6A. TutyškinasD
- 7B. VerbičF
- 8M. KvesićM
- 9B. KramerF
- 10S. SešlarM
- 11M. AvdyliD
- 19M. ZabukovnikM
- 25V. TushaF
- 44Ł. BejgerD
Substitutes
- 4D. HrkaM
- 12L. KolarG
- 13Papa Mustapha DanielM
- 15Ž. ŽužekD
- 20A. DionkouD
- 23Ž. FrelihG
- 31D. SuhovrsnikF
- 33L. KoútrisD
- 47A. KučysF
- 77M. IvanšekF
- 91Y. DukulyF
Red Bull Salzburg
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 7U. TohumcuM
- 8S. KitanoM
- 9H. TabakovićF
- 11Y. VertessenM
- 21T. DrexlerD
- 23D. RedzicM
- 31D. SchmidD
- 32A. BarryM
- 39L. MorgallaD
- 44K. BomaD
- 52Christian ZawieschitzkyG
Substitutes
- 1C. FrüchtlG
- 4J. MellbergD
- 5S. DiabatéM
- 13F. KrätzigD
- 15B. MazurekM
- 19K. KonatéF
- 22S. LainerD
- 30G. DiakitéF
- 33A. CamaraM
- 35J. LindstrømM
- 41Nikola ŠarčevićG
- 47Valentin ZabranskyD
Celje
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Kramer | F | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2/2 |
| A. Kučys | F | 9 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| M. Avdyli | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 4/5 |
| Y. Dukuly | F | 30 | 7.1 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| B. Verbič | F | 81 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 4/7 |
| S. Sešlar | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 2/5 |
| Ł. Bejger | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Tusha | F | 60 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| A. Tutyškinas | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Kvesić | M | 94 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Žan-Luk Leban | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Širvys | D | 81 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ž. Žužek | D | 9 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. Zabukovnik | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Ž. Frelih | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Hrka | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Dionkou | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Papa Mustapha Daniel | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Kolar | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ivanšek | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Koútris | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Suhovrsnik | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Red Bull Salzburg
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Redzic | M | 83 | 7.6 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 6 | 3/5 |
| S. Kitano | M | 65 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| J. Lindstrøm | M | 44 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 0/3 |
| G. Diakité | F | 25 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| K. Boma | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| D. Schmid | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| T. Drexler | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Mazurek | M | 44 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| A. Barry | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 4 | — | — | 1/3 |
| L. Morgalla | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/4 |
| H. Tabaković | F | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | — |
| F. Krätzig | D | 7 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| U. Tohumcu | M | 46 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Vertessen | M | 46 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christian Zawieschitzky | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nikola Šarčević | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Camara | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Diabaté | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Mellberg | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Konaté | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Früchtl | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Lainer | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Valentin Zabransky | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Celje to win against Red Bull Salzburg.
- What score did Fipster predict for Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Celje 1–0 Red Bull Salzburg.
- What were the win probabilities for Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg?
- Fipster's model gave Celje a 35% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.