Casa Pia vs Santa Clara
Santa Clara snatches late winner at Casa Pia
João Vasconcelos seals a narrow 1-0 victory deep into stoppage time.
Santa Clara secured a slender 1-0 win over Casa Pia thanks to João Vasconcelos' decisive goal in the second minute of added time. The match was tightly contested with no goals until that dramatic late breakthrough. Fipster's prediction of an away win was spot on, albeit the exact scoreline differed.
Outcome probability
Casa Pia face a tough challenge against Santa Clara, who have been in impressive form this season. With Casa Pia struggling near the bottom of the table, this match looks set to favour the visitors.
Match factors
Santa Clara's potent attack led by Gonçalo Paciência
Gonçalo Paciência leads Santa Clara with 5 goals in 6 games, providing a clear attacking edge over Casa Pia's struggling defense
Casa Pia's low scoring and defensive frailty
Casa Pia has scored only 1 goal in 6 games and concedes over 2 goals per game, making them vulnerable to Santa Clara's attack
Santa Clara's strong recent form and clean sheets
Santa Clara has won 4 of 6 games with a 57% clean sheet rate, indicating solid defense and confidence
Casa Pia relies heavily on Henrique Araújo for goals
Henrique Araújo is Casa Pia's only top scorer with limited team support, reducing overall scoring threat
The context
Santa Clara currently sit 4th in the league with 14 points from 6 games, unbeaten so far with 4 wins and 2 draws. Casa Pia, on the other hand, are languishing in 18th place with just 1 point from 6 games, having yet to win this season. Their head-to-head record is fairly balanced, but Santa Clara hold a slight edge with 3 wins to Casa Pia's 2 in their 7 meetings.
Key insights
Gonçalo Paciência
Santa Clara
Top scorer in the league with 5 goals in 6 games, providing a clear attacking edge over Casa Pia's defence.
Primeira Liga 26/275 goals in 6 appearances, 0.83 goals/game
Henrique Araújo
Casa Pia
Casa Pia relies heavily on Henrique Araújo for goals, but his limited support reduces their overall scoring threat.
Primeira Liga 26/271 goal in 6 appearances, 0.17 goals/game
Analysis
Santa Clara's attacking threat is led by Gonçalo Paciência, who has netted 5 goals in 6 games, making him the league's top scorer and a constant menace. Casa Pia's offensive output is limited, with Henrique Araújo their only notable scorer on 1 goal. Defensively, Casa Pia have conceded over 2 goals per game, which plays into Santa Clara's hands. The visitors have also kept clean sheets in over half their matches, showing defensive solidity. The predicted halftime score of 0-2 suggests Santa Clara will start strongly, with Casa Pia likely pulling one back late on.
Key facts
- 1.Santa Clara are 4th with 14 points from 6 games (W4 D2 L0).
- 2.Casa Pia are 18th with 1 point from 6 games (W0 D1 L5).
- 3.Santa Clara have a significantly better goal difference (21 goals) than Casa Pia.
- 4.In 7 meetings, Santa Clara have won 3, Casa Pia 2, with 2 draws.
- 5.Casa Pia have scored only 1 goal in 6 games and concede over 2 goals per game.
- 6.Gonçalo Paciência is the league's top scorer with 5 goals in 6 games.
- 7.Santa Clara have kept clean sheets in 57% of their matches this season.
Prediction
We expect Santa Clara to claim a 2-1 victory, capitalising on their superior form and goal difference. The match should see around 4 cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter. Santa Clara's attacking prowess and Casa Pia's defensive vulnerabilities make the away win the most probable outcome.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Casa Pia
Away — Santa Clara
The verdict
In summary, Santa Clara look set to continue their fine run with a narrow win over Casa Pia. Casa Pia will need to tighten up at the back and find more support for Henrique Araújo if they are to avoid another defeat.
Prediction generated 20 Sep 2026, 19:01 UTC · Fipster Model v1.161
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
José Luís Rocha Tavares
Yellow Card
Card upgrade confirmed
Sousa
Red Card
Araújo
José Luís Rocha Tavares
Araújo
Yellow Card
Fernandes
Yellow Card
Lopes
Tiago Ribeiro
Ofori
Rosas
Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos
Fernandes
El Boukammiri
Pauwels
Gabi Pereira
Yellow Card
João Vasconcelos
Assist: Soares
João Vasconcelos
Yellow Card
Geraldes
Yellow Card
Paciência
Yellow Card
Pedro Ferreira
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +16 | 24 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 17 |
| 15 |  Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 |  Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
Match Statistics
Casa Pia
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3KalyD
- 9Henrique AraújoF
- 11M. El BoukammiriM
- 16SilviM
- 18GeraldesD
- 43David SousaD
- 70João Pedro Seno Luís RêgoM
- 75Pedro RosasD
- 77B. PauwelsM
- 80L. OforiM
- 95Ivan MandićG
Substitutes
- 1P. SequeiraG
- 4João GoulartD
- 8Gabi PereiraM
- 10RochinhaF
- 17E. MaurinF
- 19K. PrietoF
- 20A. JattaF
- 21A. ZouinF
- 24S. PérezM
- 44Felipe SilvaD
- 90CassianoF
- 98JPM
Santa Clara
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1Lucas FrançaG
- 4Pedro PachecoD
- 5Guilherme RomãoD
- 6Pedro FerreiraM
- 8José Luís Rocha TavaresM
- 9Gonçalo PaciênciaF
- 10Brenner Lucas Gonçalves SantosF
- 20Tiago RibeiroM
- 21Emanuel FernandesD
- 42Lucas SoaresD
- 70Vinícius LopesF
Substitutes
- 3Henrique SilvaD
- 7Luis Fernando Santos OliveiraF
- 11Welinton TorrãoF
- 12NenecaG
- 17João VasconcelosM
- 22VitinhoM
- 41Daniel BorgesM
- 73Léo JacóF
- 99SorrisoF
Casa Pia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaly | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| João Goulart | D | 17 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/5 |
| Felipe Silva | D | 36 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Rosas | D | 73 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| B. Pauwels | M | 80 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Silvi | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. El Boukammiri | M | 79 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Henrique Araújo | F | 54 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Zouin | F | 11 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| E. Maurin | F | 10 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Geraldes | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Ofori | M | 72 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Gabi Pereira | M | 18 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Ivan Mandić | G | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Sousa | D | 52 | 5.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| K. Prieto | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| JP | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Sequeira | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Pérez | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Jatta | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rochinha | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cassiano | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Santa Clara
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Vasconcelos | M | 33 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Henrique Silva | D | 13 | 7.6 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Pedro Pacheco | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Romão | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Pedro Ferreira | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Lucas Soares | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Tiago Ribeiro | M | 70 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Luis Fernando Santos Oliveira | F | 20 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Vitinho | M | 20 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Lucas França | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emanuel Fernandes | D | 77 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonçalo Paciência | F | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3/5 |
| José Luís Rocha Tavares | M | 57 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Léo Jacó | F | 13 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vinícius Lopes | F | 70 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos | F | 77 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Neneca | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Borges | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Welinton Torrão | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sorriso | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Santa Clara to win against Casa Pia.
- What score did Fipster predict for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Casa Pia 1–2 Santa Clara.
- What were the win probabilities for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
- Fipster's model gave Casa Pia a 7% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 85% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.