Cardiff vs Stoke City
Stoke City snatch draw at Cardiff
B. Johnson's early strike earns Stoke a point despite Cardiff's fightback.
Stoke City took the lead through B. Johnson's 22nd-minute goal, but Cardiff responded after the break with J. Colwill leveling the score at 1-1. The match ended in a share of the spoils, defying Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a Cardiff win by two goals. Both sides had to settle for a point in this Championship encounter.
Outcome probability
Cardiff face Stoke City in the sixth round of the regular season, both sides eager to improve their league standings. Cardiff have yet to win this season but will be looking to turn their fortunes around, while Stoke City have shown some scoring consistency despite mixed results.
Match factors
Cardiff's defensive depth weakened by confirmed absences
Three defenders confirmed out, reducing defensive options and increasing reliance on Bagan and Ng
Stoke's attacking midfield strength vs Cardiff's leaky defense
Stoke's Galbraith and Bocat provide creativity and assists against Cardiff conceding in all recent matches
Stoke's scoring consistency contrasts Cardiff's struggles
Stoke scored in all last 5 matches, Cardiff failed to win and concedes frequently
Bagan's passing and duel success key to Cardiff's buildup
Bagan's 87% passing accuracy and 63% duel win rate exceed league defender averages
The context
Cardiff currently sit 20th in the league with just 3 points from 4 games, having drawn three and lost one. Stoke City are placed 10th with 6 points from 5 games, winning twice but also losing three times. Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities, but Stoke's attacking midfielders have been particularly creative this season.
Key insights
- J
J. Bagan
Cardiff
Bagan's excellent passing and duel success are crucial for Cardiff's buildup play amid defensive absences.
Championship 26/27Passing accuracy 87%, duel win rate 63% vs league defender average 79% and 53%.
- E
E. Galbraith
Stoke City
Galbraith's recent scoring form adds a creative threat Stoke will rely on to break down Cardiff.
Championship 26/27Scored in last two home matches, with 126 passes in 4 games.
- E
E. Bocat
Stoke City
Bocat's playmaking and defensive work rate make him a key figure in Stoke's midfield.
Championship 26/272 assists in last home game, 10 tackles and 10 interceptions in 4 games.
Analysis
Cardiff's defence has been stretched due to confirmed absences, increasing reliance on key defenders like J. Bagan, who boasts an impressive 87% passing accuracy and a 63% duel win rate, well above league averages. Stoke City's midfielders, including E. Bocat and E. Galbraith, have been instrumental in creating chances and scoring goals, with Galbraith scoring in the last two home matches and Bocat providing assists. Despite Stoke's attacking threat, Cardiff's home advantage and defensive resilience, combined with their ability to capitalise on chances, suggest they will edge this contest.
Key facts
- 1.Cardiff are 20th in the league with 3 points from 4 games (W0 D3 L1).
- 2.Stoke City are 10th with 6 points from 5 games (W2 D0 L3).
- 3.Cardiff have conceded in all recent matches, highlighting defensive struggles.
- 4.Stoke City have scored in all of their last 5 matches, showing attacking consistency.
- 5.J. Bagan's passing accuracy is 87%, well above the league defender average of 79%.
- 6.E. Galbraith has scored in the last two home matches for Stoke City.
- 7.E. Bocat provided 2 assists in Stoke's last home game.
- 8.The predicted halftime score is 1-0 in favour of Cardiff.
Prediction
We expect Cardiff to take an early lead, going into halftime 1-0 up. They should build on this advantage in the second half to secure a 3-1 victory. The match is likely to feature a handful of cards, with a total of around four expected, reflecting the competitive nature of the fixture.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Cardiff
Away — Stoke City
No standout best passers flagged for Stoke City
The verdict
Cardiff's need for a win and Stoke's attacking promise set the stage for an entertaining match. However, the home side's tactical edge and key player performances should see them through to a confident 3-1 victory, finally delivering the three points they crave.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Johnson
Assist: Boženík
Wilmot
Yellow Card
Ng
Yellow Card
Hirst
Bombino
Colwill
Assist: Willock
Boženík
Devenny
Graham
Yellow Card
Willock
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 17 |
| 6 |  QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 |  Bristol City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 19 |  Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 20 |  Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 21 |  Bolton | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
Match Statistics
Cardiff
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1N. TrottG
- 3J. BaganD
- 4G. OshoD
- 5K. BielikD
- 8J. MoylanM
- 9Y. SalechF
- 11O. TannerM
- 16C. WillockM
- 18A. RobertsonM
- 27J. ColwillM
- 38P. NgD
Substitutes
- 14D. TurnbullM
- 23C. ScanlonD
- 30H. TyrerG
- 33R. TankiewiczM
- 40N. AnyadikeD
- 43P. MorenoM
- 44R. KpakioD
- 45Cian AshfordF
- 47C. RobinsonF
Stoke City
3-5-2Starting XI
- 1V. JohanssonG
- 2B. JohnsonM
- 5L. GrahamD
- 8E. GalbraithM
- 9R. BoženíkF
- 13J. DevennyM
- 15G. HirstF
- 16B. WilmotD
- 21L. BombinoM
- 27El Hadji Djibril SoumaréM
- 40M. TalovierovD
Substitutes
- 4B. PearsonM
- 7J. McGlynnM
- 10Bae Jun-HoM
- 11L. CisséF
- 17E. BocatD
- 19T. RigoM
- 24J. GriffithsG
- 42M. ManhoefF
- 43F. AndersonD
Cardiff
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Colwill | M | 90 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| C. Willock | M | 82 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 5 | 1/1 |
| K. Bielik | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Robertson | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1/1 |
| G. Osho | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| N. Trott | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Bagan | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1/2 |
| J. Moylan | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0/1 |
| P. Ng | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Cian Ashford | F | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Y. Salech | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | — |
| O. Tanner | M | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 7 | — | 1 | 3/5 |
| C. Robinson | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Kpakio | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Tankiewicz | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Moreno | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Anyadike | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Scanlon | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Tyrer | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Turnbull | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Stoke City
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Johnson | M | 90 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| V. Johansson | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Boženík | F | 69 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 3 | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| L. Bombino | M | 59 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| G. Hirst | F | 59 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| M. Talovierov | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Galbraith | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Bae Jun-Ho | M | 31 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| E. Bocat | D | 31 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| L. Cissé | F | 21 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| El Hadji Djibril Soumaré | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. McGlynn | M | 21 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Devenny | M | 69 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| L. Graham | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| B. Wilmot | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Anderson | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Pearson | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Griffiths | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Manhoef | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Rigo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Cardiff vs Stoke City?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Cardiff to win against Stoke City.
- What score did Fipster predict for Cardiff vs Stoke City?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Cardiff 3–1 Stoke City.
- What were the win probabilities for Cardiff vs Stoke City?
- Fipster's model gave Cardiff a 85% chance of winning, Stoke City a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.