Cardiff vs Birmingham
Cardiff edge Birmingham with Salech strike
A single goal from Y. Salech secures a narrow win for Cardiff in the Championship clash.
Cardiff claimed a tight 1-0 victory over Birmingham thanks to Y. Salech's first-half goal at 31 minutes, despite missing a penalty earlier in the game. The match was a close affair with no further goals, reflecting a narrow but deserved home win. Fipster had predicted a Cardiff win with high confidence, though the actual scoreline was less emphatic than the forecasted 3-1.
Outcome probability
This fixture sees Cardiff take on Birmingham in the 12th round of the regular season. Despite Birmingham's superior league position, Cardiff's recent home scoring streak and attacking midfield duo promise an entertaining encounter.
Match factors
Cardiff's midfield attacking duo in form
J. Moylan and O. Tanner show strong recent scoring and assist form, likely to drive Cardiff's attack
Birmingham's defensive solidity vs Cardiff's attack
Birmingham concedes fewer goals on average, with defensive stalwarts Klarer and Osayi-Samuel key to limiting Cardiff's scoring
Cardiff's home scoring streak
Cardiff has scored in all recent home games, supporting the predicted 3 goals at home
Cardiff missing key defenders
Confirmed outs Chambers, Bielik, Colwill, and Lawlor weaken Cardiff's defense, increasing risk of conceding
The context
Birmingham currently sit 4th in the league with 17 points from 10 games, boasting a +6 goal difference and a points-per-game average of 1.70. Cardiff, on the other hand, are 19th with 10 points and a +1 goal difference, reflecting a tougher season so far.
Key insights
- J
J. Moylan
Cardiff
Top recent scorer for Cardiff with multiple multi-goal games, driving the team's attack.
Championship 26/27High shot volume and conversion rate in competition 40, season 2026.
- O
O. Tanner
Cardiff
Consistent goal contributions and high match ratings, linking midfield and attack effectively.
Championship 26/27Above average shooting and passing accuracy in competition 40, season 2026.
- C
C. Klarer
Birmingham
Key figure in Birmingham's build-up play with high passing volume and accuracy for a defender.
Championship 26/27Strong recent match ratings in competition 40, season 2026.
- B
B. Osayi-Samuel
Birmingham
Top tackler with a high duel win rate, crucial in breaking up opposition attacks.
Championship 26/27Consistent starter with solid defensive stats in competition 40, season 2026.
Analysis
Cardiff's midfielders J. Moylan and O. Tanner have been standout performers, contributing significantly to the team's attack with multiple goals and assists. Meanwhile, Birmingham's defence, anchored by C. Klarer and B. Osayi-Samuel, has been solid, conceding fewer goals on average. However, Cardiff's home scoring consistency and the absence of key defenders for Cardiff could tilt the balance in favour of the hosts.
Key facts
- 1.Cardiff are ranked 19th with 10 points from 10 games (W2 D4 L4).
- 2.Birmingham are ranked 4th with 17 points from 10 games (W4 D5 L1).
- 3.Birmingham have a +6 goal difference compared to Cardiff's +1.
- 4.Birmingham average 1.70 points per game, Cardiff 1.00.
- 5.Cardiff have scored in all recent home games.
- 6.Cardiff are missing key defenders Chambers, Bielik, Colwill, and Lawlor.
- 7.J. Moylan is Cardiff's top recent scorer with multiple multi-goal games.
- 8.Birmingham's defenders Klarer and Osayi-Samuel are key to their defensive strength.
Prediction
The prediction favours a home win for Cardiff with a halftime lead of 1-0 and a fulltime score of 3-1. The match is expected to be competitive with around four cards shown, reflecting a lively contest. Cardiff's attacking momentum at home is likely to overcome Birmingham's defensive strengths.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Cardiff
Away — Birmingham
The verdict
In summary, Cardiff's attacking form and home advantage should see them through to a 3-1 victory over Birmingham. While Birmingham's league position and defensive solidity are notable, the hosts' recent performances and key player contributions make them the favourites in this encounter.
Prediction generated 17 Oct 2026, 15:54 UTC · Fipster Model v1.164
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Salech
Missed Penalty
Salech
Assist: Tanner
Solis
Yellow Card
Solis
Vázquez
Vicente
Tanner
Scanlon
Millar
Osayi-Samuel
Klarer
Yellow Card
Bagan
Yellow Card
Moylan
Ashford
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +10 | 25 |
| 2 |  Birmingham | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | +10 | 23 |
| 3 |  Stoke City | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | +4 | 23 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
Match Statistics
Cardiff
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1N. TrottG
- 2W. FishD
- 3J. BaganD
- 8J. MoylanM
- 9Y. SalechF
- 11O. TannerM
- 18A. RobertsonM
- 23C. ScanlonD
- 27J. ColwillM
- 38P. NgD
- 45Cian AshfordM
Substitutes
- 14D. TurnbullM
- 16C. WillockM
- 30H. TyrerG
- 33R. TankiewiczM
- 39I. DaviesF
- 40N. AnyadikeD
- 44R. KpakioD
- 52T. PerrettM
Birmingham
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1J. BeadleG
- 4C. KlarerD
- 5P. NeumannD
- 7Carlos VicenteM
- 14J. SolisM
- 17L. MillarM
- 20A. CochraneD
- 24T. IwataM
- 26B. Osayi-SamuelD
- 28J. StansfieldM
- 32L. VázquezF
Substitutes
- 2E. LairdD
- 3L. BuchananD
- 10D. GrayF
- 16P. RobertsM
- 18M. BirdM
- 19T. Gardner-HickmanM
- 21R. AllsopG
- 23D. FryD
- 33M. DuckschF
Cardiff
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Fish | D | 90 | 7.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Y. Salech | F | 90 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 8 | 2 | — | 0/3 |
| C. Willock | M | 22 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| P. Ng | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 3/4 |
| A. Robertson | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| O. Tanner | M | 68 | 7.1 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| J. Colwill | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| J. Moylan | M | 87 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 3 | 3/4 |
| C. Scanlon | D | 68 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Turnbull | M | 3 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Kpakio | D | 22 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Bagan | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| N. Trott | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cian Ashford | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | 4/4 |
| T. Perrett | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Tankiewicz | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Davies | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Anyadike | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Tyrer | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Birmingham
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Ducksch | F | 26 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| P. Neumann | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Gray | F | 20 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Stansfield | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Beadle | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Bird | M | 26 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Carlos Vicente | M | 64 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| A. Cochrane | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| L. Millar | M | 70 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| T. Iwata | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Solis | M | 64 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| E. Laird | D | 12 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Klarer | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| P. Roberts | M | 26 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| L. Vázquez | F | 64 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Osayi-Samuel | D | 78 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Allsop | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Fry | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Buchanan | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Gardner-Hickman | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Cardiff vs Birmingham?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Cardiff to win against Birmingham.
- What score did Fipster predict for Cardiff vs Birmingham?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Cardiff 3–1 Birmingham.
- What were the win probabilities for Cardiff vs Birmingham?
- Fipster's model gave Cardiff a 85% chance of winning, Birmingham a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.