Cagliari vs Bologna
Bologna's brace sinks Cagliari
Casale and Bernardeschi secure a solid away win in Serie A.
Bologna overturned expectations with a confident 2-0 victory at Cagliari, thanks to N. Casale's first-half strike and a penalty from F. Bernardeschi after the break. This result defied Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a narrow home win, proving the visitors' clinical edge on the day.
Outcome probability
Cagliari and Bologna face off in the eighth round of the regular season, with both sides eager to improve their league standing. The match promises a tactical battle, with Cagliari looking to leverage their stronger form and goal difference advantage.
Match factors
Cagliari's midfield control through Winks and Romano
Winks and Romano exceed league passing averages, likely to dominate possession and supply attacking chances.
Bologna's scoring relies heavily on Bernardeschi
Bernardeschi is Bologna's only consistent scorer with 1 goal in 7 games, focal point of attack.
Cagliari's recent home form is solid with multiple wins
Cagliari has won 4 of last 6 home games, scoring in most matches, supporting home win prediction.
Cagliari missing key attacker Felici and midfielder Trepy
Absence of Felici and Trepy limits Cagliari's attacking options, increasing reliance on midfielders and defenders for creativity.
The context
Cagliari currently sit 7th in the league with 13 points from six games, showcasing solid form and a positive goal difference of +3. Bologna, on the other hand, find themselves 14th with just 5 points from seven matches and a goal difference of -4. Historically, Bologna have had the upper hand in head-to-head clashes, but recent form favours Cagliari.
Key insights
Federico Bernardeschi
Bologna
Bernardeschi is Bologna's key attacking threat, being their only consistent scorer this season.
Serie A 26/271 goal in 7 appearances, 463 minutes played
Nicolò Cambiaghi
Bologna
Cambiaghi leads Bologna's assists with 2, playing a crucial creative role.
Serie A 26/272 assists in 7 appearances, 513 minutes played
- A
Adam Obert
Cagliari
Obert is vital defensively with a high duel win rate and strong tackling to disrupt Bologna's attacks.
Serie A 26/2763% duel win rate, strong tackling and interceptions
Analysis
The data suggests a tight encounter, with a 0-0 halftime scoreline most probable, reflecting cautious play in the opening stages. Cagliari's midfield duo, Winks and Romano, are expected to dominate possession and create chances, compensating for the absence of key attacker Felici. Bologna's attacking threat largely depends on Federico Bernardeschi, their only consistent scorer this season. Defensively, Cagliari's Adam Obert stands out for his tackling and interception prowess, crucial for stifling Bologna's forwards.
Key facts
- 1.Cagliari rank 7th with 13 points from 6 games, Bologna 14th with 5 points from 7 games.
- 2.Cagliari have a +3 goal difference; Bologna have -4, indicating stronger overall performance for Cagliari.
- 3.In 20 head-to-head matches, Bologna lead with 11 wins to Cagliari's 5, with 4 draws.
- 4.Cagliari have won 4 of their last 6 home games, scoring in most matches.
- 5.Federico Bernardeschi is Bologna's only consistent scorer with 1 goal in 7 appearances.
- 6.Cagliari's midfielders Winks and Romano exceed league passing averages, likely to control the game.
- 7.Adam Obert is a defensive standout for Cagliari with a 63% duel win rate and strong tackling.
Prediction
We predict a narrow 1-0 victory for Cagliari, with the decisive goal coming in the second half after a tight first 45 minutes. The match is expected to feature around four cards, reflecting a competitive but disciplined contest. Cagliari's home advantage and current form give them the edge in this closely fought battle.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Cagliari
No standout top scorers flagged for Cagliari
Away — Bologna
The verdict
While Bologna have the historical upper hand in this fixture, Cagliari's recent performances and stronger league position suggest they will edge this one. Expect a tense, tactical game with Cagliari clinching the points by the slimmest of margins.
Prediction generated 19 Oct 2026, 18:23 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Bernardeschi
Yellow Card
Zé Pedro
Yellow Card
Winks
Zé Pedro
Gagliardini
Yellow Card
Casale
Assist: Miranda
Maldini
Zortea
Romano
Miranda
Odgaard
Deiola
Yellow Card
Bernardeschi
Penalty
Darmian
Massolin
Bernardeschi
Match Statistics
Cagliari
4-3-2-1Starting XI
- 1E. CaprileG
- 2Zé PedroD
- 4A. RomanoM
- 6H. WinksM
- 8M. AdopoM
- 14A. DeiolaD
- 15J. RodríguezD
- 31P. MendyF
- 33A. ObertD
- 70D. MaldiniM
- 79Y. MassolinM
Substitutes
- 9Kevin CarlosF
- 10J. FazziniM
- 12A. SherriG
- 18M'Bala NzolaF
- 20R. CiervoF
- 21R. GagliardiniM
- 22R. KoflerD
- 23B. RadunovićG
- 24G. AurelioD
- 26Y. MinaD
- 27J. LitetaM
- 28Y. SugawaraD
- 32Ivan Stoyanov SulevM
- 39A. FaderaF
Bologna
3-4-3Starting XI
- 1Ł. SkorupskiG
- 3A. TheateD
- 4T. PobegaM
- 10F. BernardeschiF
- 16N. CasaleD
- 19L. FergusonM
- 20N. ZorteaM
- 21J. OdgaardF
- 28N. CambiaghiF
- 33Juan MirandaM
- 36M. DarmianD
Substitutes
- 5E. HellandD
- 6N. MoroM
- 8M. AmondarainM
- 9A. DovbykF
- 11S. MbangulaF
- 14T. HeggemD
- 17O. El AzzouziM
- 18M. LibraM
- 22J. EnemF
- 23R. AlhassaneD
- 25M. PessinaG
- 29L. De SilvestriD
- 41M. VitíkD
- 72U. HapponenG
Cagliari
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Sugawara | D | 44 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Rodríguez | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Caprile | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Obert | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| H. Winks | M | 46 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Adopo | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| P. Mendy | F | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| Kevin Carlos | F | 23 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| G. Aurelio | D | 4 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Fadera | F | 15 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Y. Massolin | M | 86 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/4 |
| A. Deiola | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Maldini | M | 67 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| A. Romano | M | 75 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Zé Pedro | D | 46 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| R. Gagliardini | M | 44 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Kofler | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Radunović | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Liteta | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ivan Stoyanov Sulev | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Sherri | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Fazzini | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Mina | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M'Bala Nzola | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Ciervo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Bologna
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Casale | D | 90 | 8.4 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| F. Bernardeschi | F | 88 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3/5 |
| A. Theate | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Darmian | D | 85 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| L. Ferguson | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Juan Miranda | M | 75 | 7.1 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Libra | M | 15 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| R. Alhassane | D | 15 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ł. Skorupski | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Amondarain | M | 15 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Zortea | M | 75 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. Vitík | D | 5 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Mbangula | F | 2 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| T. Pobega | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Odgaard | F | 75 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| N. Cambiaghi | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/4 |
| T. Heggem | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. El Azzouzi | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Enem | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Helland | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| U. Happonen | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Pessina | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Moro | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Dovbyk | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. De Silvestri | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Cagliari vs Bologna?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Cagliari to win against Bologna.
- What score did Fipster predict for Cagliari vs Bologna?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Cagliari 1–0 Bologna.
- What were the win probabilities for Cagliari vs Bologna?
- Fipster's model gave Cagliari a 46% chance of winning, Bologna a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 46% confidence — a medium-confidence call.