Burnley vs Wolves
Match recap
Burnley and Wolves drew 1–1 in their Premier League fixture. Flemming scored for Burnley; Armstrong replied for Wolves. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.06 for Burnley versus 2.05 for Wolves. Burnley sit 19th in the Premier League table while Wolves are 20th.
Analysis
As the Premier League season draws to a close, Burnley host Wolves in a crucial bottom-of-the-table clash. Both teams are desperate for points, but Burnley's recent home scoring form and key players give them the edge.
Burnley and Wolves sit at the foot of the table with 21 and 19 points respectively. Historically, Burnley have had the upper hand in their 17 meetings, winning 7 to Wolves' 4, with an average of 2.1 goals per match. This fixture could be pivotal for pride and momentum.
Burnley's attacking midfield duo, Z. Flemming and J. Anthony, have been in fine form, combining for 18 goals this season and showing particular potency at home. Q. Hartman's set-piece deliveries add another dimension to their attack. Wolves' defence, despite stalwarts like S. Bueno, has been leaky, which Burnley are likely to exploit. The absence of J. Cullen may limit Burnley's midfield creativity, but their recent scoring streak at home suggests they can still find the net.
Prediction
Expect a tight first half with no goals, as both sides feel each other out. Burnley should edge the second half, scoring twice through their in-form midfielders and set-piece opportunities. Wolves will respond with a goal of their own, but ultimately Burnley will hold on for a 2-1 victory. The match is likely to see around four cards, reflecting the high stakes and tension.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Burnley's attacking midfield strength vs Wolves' defense
Burnley's Flemming and Anthony have strong recent scoring form against Wolves' leaky defense, favoring home attack.
Burnley's set-piece threat via Hartman and Mejbri
Hartman leads assists with set-piece delivery, supported by Mejbri's creativity, increasing scoring chances.
Burnley's recent scoring streak at home
Burnley has scored in 4 of last 5 home games, showing positive offensive momentum despite overall poor form.
Absence of Cullen reduces midfield creativity for Burnley
Cullen's injury deprives Burnley of a key passer with high accuracy, potentially limiting midfield control.
Wolves' defensive stalwarts to counter Burnley attack
Bueno and Mosquera provide defensive solidity, but Wolves' overall defensive form is weak, posing risk.
Key Takeaways
Burnley have the tools and home advantage to claim a vital win against Wolves. Their attacking midfield and set-piece threat, combined with Wolves' defensive vulnerabilities, point to a narrow but deserved victory to close out the season.
- Burnley have won 7 of 17 meetings against Wolves, who have won 4, with 6 draws.
- Head-to-head matches average 2.1 goals per game, indicating a moderately open contest.
- Burnley are 19th with 21 points; Wolves are 20th with 19 points, both fighting relegation scraps.
- Z. Flemming is Burnley's top scorer with 10 goals, including 3 in the last 5 games.
- Q. Hartman leads Burnley with 5 assists, showing strong set-piece delivery.
- Burnley have scored in 4 of their last 5 home games, showing improved offensive form.
- Wolves' defence includes S. Bueno, a consistent starter with strong passing and defensive stats.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Burnley
Away — Wolves
No standout top scorers flagged for Wolves
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Penalty confirmed
Armstrong
Penalty
Hwang Hee-Chan
Yellow Card
Mejbri
Yellow Card
Flemming
Assist: Tchaouna
Krejčí
Gomes
Mejbri
Armstrong
Møller Wolfe
Ugochukwu
Tchaouna
Rodrigo Gomes
Anthony
Flemming
Mosquera
Yellow Card
Barnes
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Burnley
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2K. WalkerD
- 6A. TuanzebeD
- 8L. UgochukwuM
- 11J. AnthonyM
- 12B. HumphreysD
- 13M. WeißG
- 16FlorentinoM
- 17L. TchaounaM
- 19Z. FlemmingF
- 23Lucas PiresD
- 28H. MejbriM
Substitutes
- 1M. DúbravkaG
- 7J. Bruun LarsenF
- 10M. EdwardsF
- 14C. RobertsD
- 18H. EkdalD
- 20J. Ward-ProwseM
- 25Z. AmdouniF
- 29J. LaurentM
- 35A. BarnesF
Wolves
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1José SáG
- 4S. BuenoD
- 6D. Møller WolfeM
- 7AndréM
- 9A. ArmstrongF
- 11Hwang Hee-ChanF
- 15Y. MosqueraD
- 21Rodrigo GomesM
- 36M. ManeF
- 37L. KrejčíD
- 47A. GomesM
Substitutes
- 3Hugo BuenoD
- 14T. ArokodareF
- 17Pedro LimaD
- 24Toti GomesD
- 25D. BentleyG
- 38J. TchatchouaD
- 50J. AbbeyM
- 60Ethan SutherlandM
- 74T. Edozie
Burnley
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Weiss | G | 90 | 8.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Zian Flemming | F | 84 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Hannibal Mejbri | M | 66 | 7.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Florentino Luís | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Bashir Humphreys | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Kyle Walker(C) | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Lesley Ugochukwu | M | 75 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Axel Tuanzebe | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Pires | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2/3 |
| Jaidon Anthony | M | 85 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/6 |
| Loum Tchaouna | M | 75 | 6.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Connor Roberts | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hjalmar Ekdal | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Dúbravka | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Laurent | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| James Ward-Prowse | M | 15 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Marcus Edwards | F | 15 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Ashley Barnes | F | 14 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen | F | 13 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zeki Amdouni | F | 24 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
Wolves
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateus Mané | F | 90 | 8.3 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 6 | 1/2 |
| José Sá(C) | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yerson Mosquera | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Angel Gomes | M | 66 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| André | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Møller Wolfe | M | 74 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hwang Hee-chan | F | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| Adam Armstrong | F | 74 | 6.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Santiago Bueno | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Rodrigo Gomes | M | 82 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/4 |
| Ladislav Krejčí | D | 66 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Daniel Bentley | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jackson Tchatchoua | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ethan Sutherland | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tom Edozie | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Toti Gomes | D | 24 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jerome Abbey | M | 16 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Lima | D | 8 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Tolu Arokodare | F | 24 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hugo Bueno | D | 16 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |