Burnley vs Wolves
Wolves snatch win at Burnley
Fer López and T. Chirewa turn the tide after Vardy's opener
Burnley took an early lead through J. Vardy's 20th-minute strike, but Wolves fought back with Fer López equalising before the break and T. Chirewa sealing the victory in the second half. The 2-1 result defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a Burnley win, proving Wolves' resilience on the road.
Outcome probability
Burnley and Wolves are set for an intriguing clash in the regular season's 11th round. Both teams have shown competitive form, promising an entertaining encounter with goals likely at both ends.
Match factors
Burnley missing key attackers including Ramsey
Burnley confirmed out players include Aaron Ramsey and others, weakening attacking options and shifting scoring burden
Wolves' Raúl Jiménez out reduces attacking threat
Jiménez is confirmed out with knee injury, lowering Wolves' striker options and goal threat
Burnley showing consistent scoring streak at home
Burnley have scored in last 5 home games, indicating strong offensive momentum despite defensive issues
Fer López leads Wolves in scoring and minutes
Fer López has 4 goals in 9 games with high minutes and consistent starts, key Wolves scoring outlet
Lucas Pires' assist threat from defense key for Burnley
Pires leads assists for Burnley with 3 in 7 games, providing creative outlet from defense and set-pieces
The context
Burnley currently sit 21st in the league with 8 points from 10 games, while Wolves hold a stronger position at 9th with 14 points from 9 games. Historically, Burnley have a slight edge in head-to-head meetings, having won 7 of their 17 encounters against Wolves, who have won 4, with 6 draws.
Key insights
Fer López
Wolves
Wolves' top scorer with 4 goals in 9 games, consistently starting and contributing both offensively and defensively.
Championship 26/274 goals in 9 apps, 0.44 goals/game
Lucas Pires
Burnley
Leading assist provider for Burnley with 3 assists in 7 games, offering creativity and set-piece threat from defence.
Championship 26/273 assists in 7 apps, 0.43 assists/game
Largie Ramazani
Burnley
Key attacking player with 2 goals in 7 appearances, strong home form and consistent scorer recently.
Championship 26/272 goals in 7 apps, 0.29 goals/game
Mohamed Amdouni
Burnley
Doubtful for the match but has shown strong recent form with 3 goals in 9 games, could impact if fit.
Championship 26/273 goals in 9 apps, 0.33 goals/game
Analysis
Despite Wolves' better league standing and goal difference (+2 compared to Burnley's -4), the prediction leans towards a home win for Burnley. Wolves' top scorer Fer López has been in fine form with 4 goals in 9 games, but the absence of Raúl Jiménez due to injury reduces their attacking threat. Burnley, meanwhile, are missing key attacker Aaron Ramsey, which shifts scoring responsibility to players like Largie Ramazani and Jacob Bruun Larsen. Lucas Pires' creativity from defence could be crucial for Burnley's attacking output. The match is expected to be closely fought, with both sides likely to score, reflecting the predicted 3-2 scoreline.
Key facts
- 1.Burnley have won 7 of 17 matches against Wolves, with 6 draws and 4 losses.
- 2.Wolves are 9th in the league with 14 points from 9 games; Burnley are 21st with 8 points from 10 games.
- 3.Wolves have a better goal difference (+2) than Burnley (-4) this season.
- 4.Burnley have scored in their last 5 home games, showing consistent offensive form.
- 5.Wolves' top scorer Fer López has 4 goals in 9 games, leading their attack.
- 6.Burnley are missing key attacker Aaron Ramsey due to injury.
- 7.Wolves' Raúl Jiménez is out with a knee injury, reducing their striking options.
- 8.Lucas Pires leads Burnley with 3 assists in 7 games, providing key creativity from defence.
Prediction
The forecast is for Burnley to secure a 3-2 victory. The game should be a thrilling contest with goals from both teams, but Burnley's home advantage and key contributors like Ramazani and Pires might just tip the scales in their favour.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Burnley
Away — Wolves
The verdict
In what promises to be a tight and entertaining match, Burnley are predicted to edge out Wolves by a single goal. Expect an open game with attacking intent from both sides, making for a compelling watch.
Prediction generated 15 Oct 2026, 06:05 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Vardy
Assist: Bruun Larsen
Fer López
Assist: Neave
Bellegarde
Vardy
Bruun Larsen
Hatate
Yellow Card
Neave
Yellow Card
Fer López
Neave
Chirewa
Assist: Mane
Hatate
Saïd
Konan
Alleyne
Walker
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Burnley
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2K. WalkerD
- 3Max AlleyneM
- 5R. HatateM
- 7J. Bruun LarsenM
- 9J. VardyF
- 18H. EkdalD
- 19L. RamazaniM
- 23Lucas PiresD
- 29J. LaurentM
- 37G. CoudertG
- 44IgorD
Substitutes
- 1M. WeißG
- 8U. RaghouberM
- 10M. EdwardsF
- 12D. SatpaevF
- 14C. RobertsD
- 17A. HountondjiF
- 22O. SonneD
- 27A. BrojaF
- 30L. CastellF
Wolves
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1José SáG
- 5M. MunetsiM
- 7AndréM
- 14S. NeaveF
- 19R. SaïdM
- 24Toti GomesD
- 27J. BellegardeM
- 28Fer LópezM
- 33G. KonanD
- 34N. DjigaD
- 38J. TchatchouaD
Substitutes
- 2K. TrippierD
- 3Hugo BuenoD
- 8J. JamesM
- 13João VirgíniaG
- 15Y. MosqueraD
- 20T. DoyleM
- 23T. ChirewaF
- 36M. ManeF
- 37L. KrejčíD
Burnley
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Bruun Larsen | M | 61 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0/2 |
| J. Vardy | F | 61 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | — | — |
| D. Satpaev | F | 29 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| G. Coudert | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Laurent | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2/2 |
| Igor | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Lucas Pires | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 4 | — | — | 0/1 |
| L. Ramazani | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 2/6 |
| K. Walker | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| R. Hatate | M | 75 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| A. Broja | F | 29 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Edwards | F | 15 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Max Alleyne | M | 87 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| H. Ekdal | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| U. Raghouber | M | 3 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Castell | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Roberts | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Sonne | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Hountondji | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Weiß | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wolves
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fer López | M | 71 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| T. Chirewa | F | 18 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| M. Mane | F | 29 | 7.4 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3/3 |
| S. Neave | F | 72 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| T. Doyle | M | 19 | 7.1 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | — |
| J. Tchatchoua | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| G. Konan | D | 87 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Toti Gomes | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Djiga | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. Munetsi | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| R. Saïd | M | 87 | 6.6 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2/7 |
| José Sá | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Bellegarde | M | 61 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | 3 | 0/3 |
| Hugo Bueno | D | 3 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| L. Krejčí | D | 3 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| João Virgínia | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Mosquera | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. James | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Trippier | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Burnley vs Wolves?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Burnley to win against Wolves.
- What score did Fipster predict for Burnley vs Wolves?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Burnley 3–2 Wolves.
- What were the win probabilities for Burnley vs Wolves?
- Fipster's model gave Burnley a 35% chance of winning, Wolves a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.