Burnley vs West Ham
Burnley claw back late to deny West Ham
Z. Flemming's penalty and injury-time strike rescue a draw for Burnley.
West Ham looked comfortable with goals from M. Kilman and M. Solomon, but Burnley refused to lie down. Z. Flemming's penalty in the 83rd minute sparked a comeback, and his second goal deep into stoppage time secured a 2-2 draw. This result defied Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a Burnley win, turning what looked like a narrow home victory into a share of the spoils.
Analysis
The new season kicks off with Burnley facing West Ham in what promises to be a competitive encounter. Both teams are eager to start their campaigns on a positive note, setting the stage for a match full of tactical battles and potential twists.
Historically, West Ham have had the upper hand in this fixture, winning 11 of the 20 meetings against Burnley, who have managed 4 victories. The average goals per match stand at 2.6, suggesting a moderate scoring affair. In the league, West Ham sit slightly higher at 7th compared to Burnley's 9th, hinting at a marginal advantage for the visitors.
The prediction model indicates a tight contest with a slight edge to Burnley for a comeback victory. Despite West Ham likely leading at halftime 1-0, Burnley are expected to rally in the second half to secure a 2-1 win. The probabilities reflect a balanced match, with the home side's resilience and tactical adjustments playing a key role in overturning the deficit.
Prediction
Expect West Ham to start strong and take an early lead, but Burnley's determination and home advantage should see them fight back to win 2-1. The match is forecasted to feature three cards, adding a bit of spice to the proceedings. Confidence in this outcome stands at 51%, indicating a closely fought battle with a slight home win preference.
Outcome probability
Key Takeaways
This opening fixture sets the tone for the season, with Burnley showing they can overcome early setbacks against a tough West Ham side. Fans should brace for a spirited contest with goals and a late turnaround, making it a thrilling watch from start to finish.
- West Ham have won 11 of the 20 head-to-head matches against Burnley.
- Burnley have won 4 of the 20 head-to-head matches, with 5 draws.
- Average goals per head-to-head match is 2.6, indicating moderate scoring.
- West Ham are ranked 7th in the league, Burnley 9th, before the season starts.
- Prediction favours Burnley to win 2-1 despite trailing 0-1 at halftime.
- Three total cards are expected in the match, suggesting some on-field tension.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Burnley
Away — West Ham
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Kilman
Assist: Bowen
Kanté
Yellow Card
Pablo
Raghouber
Mejbri
Castellanos
Yellow Card
Solomon
Humphreys
Ramsey
Bruun Larsen
Flemming
Penalty
Hermansen
Yellow Card
Scarles
Solomon
Flemming
Assist: Alleyne
Diouf
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 |  West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +4 | 15 |
| 23 |  Preston | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 |  Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Match Statistics
Burnley
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1M. WeißG
- 2K. WalkerD
- 3Max AlleyneD
- 6B. HumphreysD
- 7J. Bruun LarsenM
- 8U. RaghouberM
- 10M. EdwardsM
- 19Z. FlemmingF
- 21A. RamseyM
- 22O. SonneD
- 28H. MejbriM
Substitutes
- 4J. WorrallD
- 11Z. AmdouniF
- 17A. HountondjiF
- 20S. SamboD
- 23Lucas PiresD
- 27A. BrojaF
- 29J. LaurentM
- 31M. TrésorF
West Ham
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1M. HermansenG
- 2K. Walker-PetersD
- 3M. KilmanD
- 10M. SolomonM
- 11V. CastellanosF
- 15K. MavropanosD
- 17M. KantéM
- 19PabloF
- 20J. BowenM
- 30O. ScarlesD
- 61L. OrfordM
Substitutes
- 8J. Ward-ProwseM
- 12E. DioufD
- 23A. AreolaG
- 34J. VeltmanD
- 40George EarthyM
- 58A. GolambeckisD
- 63E. MayersD
- 66J. AjalaF
Burnley
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zian Flemming | F | 96 | 8.2 | 2 | — | 9 | 4 | 1 | — |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen | M | 82 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| Marcus Edwards | M | 96 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 1/3 |
| Kyle Walker(C) | D | 96 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Bashir Humphreys | D | 76 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Aaron Ramsey | M | 76 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Max Alleyne | D | 96 | 6.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Hannibal Mejbri | M | 57 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Ugo Raghouber | M | 57 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Max Weiss | G | 96 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oliver Sonne | D | 96 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Shurandy Sambo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joe Worrall | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andreas Hountondji | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Armando Broja | F | 20 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Mike Trésor | F | 14 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Laurent | M | 39 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Zeki Amdouni | F | 39 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Lucas Pires | D | 20 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
West Ham
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manor Solomon | M | 89 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 3/3 |
| Max Kilman | D | 96 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Jarrod Bowen(C) | M | 96 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| Mads Hermansen | G | 96 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lewis Orford | M | 96 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos | D | 96 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Oliver Scarles | D | 87 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Valentín Castellanos | F | 96 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Pablo Felipe | F | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kyle Walker-Peters | D | 96 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Mohamadou Kanté | M | 96 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Joël Veltman | D | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ezra Mayers | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| George Earthy | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alphonse Aréola | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joshua Ajala | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Airidas Golambeckis | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| James Ward-Prowse | M | 51 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| El Hadji Malick Diouf | D | 9 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Burnley vs West Ham?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Burnley to win against West Ham.
- What score did Fipster predict for Burnley vs West Ham?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Burnley 2–1 West Ham.
- What were the win probabilities for Burnley vs West Ham?
- Fipster's model gave Burnley a 51% chance of winning, West Ham a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 51% confidence — a medium-confidence call.