Burnley vs Manchester City
Match recap
Manchester City beat Burnley 1–0 in their Premier League fixture. Haaland scored for Manchester City. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.57 for Burnley versus 3.15 for Manchester City. Burnley sit 19th in the Premier League table while Manchester City are 2nd.
Analysis
As Burnley prepare to host Manchester City, the odds heavily favour the visitors. City's superior form and Burnley's struggles set the stage for a likely away win.
Burnley sit precariously in 19th place with just 20 points, while Manchester City boast a lofty 2nd position with 67 points. Historically, City have dominated this fixture, winning 18 of the last 20 encounters, with matches averaging 3.5 goals. Burnley’s defensive frailty and poor recent form add to their woes ahead of this clash.
Despite some injury concerns for City’s Erling Haaland, their attacking options remain potent with players like Phil Foden and Rayan Cherki ready to step up. Burnley’s leading scorer Zian Flemming, though doubtful, remains their key threat. City's midfield superiority, led by Matheus Nunes and Bernardo Silva, is expected to control the game, while Burnley’s defensive lapses will likely be exploited.
Prediction
We predict a 3-1 victory for Manchester City, with the visitors taking an early lead and maintaining control throughout. The halftime scoreline is expected to be 0-2, reflecting City's dominance from the outset. The match should see around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Burnley missing key attackers and midfielders
Flemming and Ugochukwu doubtful or suspended, weakening Burnley’s attack and midfield stability.
Manchester City missing Haaland and key defenders
Haaland injured, Dias and Rodri also doubtful, impacting City's attack and defense balance.
City’s midfield dominance likely to control game
Nunes, Bernardo Silva, and Cherki provide superior passing and creativity over Burnley’s midfield.
Haaland’s absence reduces City’s scoring threat but others step up
Despite Haaland’s injury, players like Foden and Doku contribute goals and assists, maintaining offensive threat.
Burnley’s poor recent form and defensive frailty
Burnley concedes 2+ goals per game on average and has low clean sheet percentage, favoring City’s attack.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Manchester City's quality and form should see them comfortably through at Burnley. While the home side may get on the scoresheet, the visitors’ attacking depth and tactical edge make a 3-1 away win the most probable outcome.
- Manchester City have won 18 of 20 head-to-head matches against Burnley.
- Head-to-head matches average 3.5 total goals, indicating high-scoring affairs.
- Burnley are 19th in the league with 20 points from 33 games.
- Manchester City are 2nd with 67 points from 32 games.
- Burnley concede over 2 goals per game on average recently.
- Erling Haaland is City's top scorer with 22 goals despite recent injury concerns.
- Burnley’s top scorer Zian Flemming has 8 goals but is doubtful for this match.
- Total cards expected around 4, indicating a moderately physical game.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Burnley
Away — Manchester City
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Haaland
Assist: Doku
Semenyo
Aït-Nouri
Tchaouna
Humphreys
Flemming
Anthony
Laurent
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | +44 | 85 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | +42 | 78 |
| 3 |  Manchester United | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | +19 | 71 |
| 18 |  West Ham | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | -19 | 39 |
| 19 |  Burnley | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | -37 | 22 |
| 20 |  Wolves | 38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | -41 | 20 |
Match Statistics
Burnley
5-4-1Starting XI
- 1M. DúbravkaG
- 2K. WalkerD
- 3Q. HartmanD
- 5M. EstèveD
- 11J. AnthonyM
- 12B. HumphreysD
- 17L. TchaounaM
- 18H. EkdalD
- 19Z. FlemmingF
- 20J. Ward-ProwseM
- 29J. LaurentM
Substitutes
- 4J. WorrallD
- 8L. UgochukwuM
- 9L. FosterF
- 10M. EdwardsF
- 13M. WeißG
- 16FlorentinoM
- 23Lucas PiresD
- 27A. BrojaF
- 31M. TrésorF
Manchester City
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 9E. HaalandF
- 10R. CherkiM
- 11J. DokuM
- 15M. GuéhiD
- 20Bernardo SilvaM
- 21R. Aït-NouriD
- 25G. DonnarummaG
- 27Matheus NunesD
- 33N. O'ReillyM
- 42A. SemenyoM
- 45A. KhusanovD
Substitutes
- 1J. TraffordG
- 4T. ReijndersM
- 5J. StonesD
- 6N. AkéD
- 7Omar MarmoushF
- 8M. KovačićM
- 14Nico GonzálezM
- 26SávioF
- 47P. FodenM
Burnley
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Dúbravka | G | 95 | 9.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| James Ward-Prowse | M | 95 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Quilindschy Hartman | D | 95 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Maxime Estève | D | 95 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kyle Walker(C) | D | 95 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Hjalmar Ekdal | D | 95 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jaidon Anthony | M | 87 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Bashir Humphreys | D | 82 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Zian Flemming | F | 82 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Loum Tchaouna | M | 72 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Josh Laurent | M | 87 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Max Weiss | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joe Worrall | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Pires | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lesley Ugochukwu | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Armando Broja | F | 13 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Florentino Luís | M | 13 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lyle Foster | F | 23 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Mike Trésor | F | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcus Edwards | F | 8 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Manchester City
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayan Cherki | M | 95 | 7.7 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 8 | 1/3 |
| Erling Haaland | F | 95 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | — | 2/3 |
| Abdukodir Khusanov | D | 95 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Matheus Nunes | D | 95 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Bernardo Silva(C) | M | 95 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 7 | 3/5 |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | G | 95 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nico O'Reilly | M | 95 | 7.0 | — | — | 4 | 3 | — | 0/1 |
| Marc Guéhi | D | 95 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Rayan Aït-Nouri | D | 65 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Jérémy Doku | M | 95 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Antoine Semenyo | M | 65 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/4 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| James Trafford | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| John Stones | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Omar Marmoush | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tijjani Reijnders | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nathan Ake | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateo Kovačić | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Phil Foden | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nico González | M | 30 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Savinho | F | 30 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/4 |