Burnley vs Derby
Derley snatches draw with last-gasp equaliser
Burnley looked set for victory until M. Fuseini's stoppage-time strike denied them.
Burnley took the lead through Z. Amdouni's first-half goal, appearing to be on course for a win. However, Derby's M. Fuseini spoiled the party with a dramatic 90+3' equaliser, earning a share of the spoils. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a Burnley victory, proving the Championship's unpredictability once again.
Outcome probability
Burnley and Derby meet in what promises to be a tightly contested fixture. Both sides have struggled for form this season, but Burnley’s home advantage and attacking threats could prove decisive.
Match factors
Burnley's attacking trio in form
Flemming and Ramsey lead Burnley's scoring with strong recent form, likely focal points in attack
Derby's creative midfield threat
Bobby Clark leads Derby's assists and creativity, pivotal if fit to unlock Burnley's defense
Burnley's superior passing accuracy
Max Alleyne's 88% passing accuracy exceeds league average, aiding build-up play
Key Derby attackers missing
Carlton Morris is confirmed out, reducing Derby's goal threat and impacting attack dynamics
Burnley scoring streak at home
Burnley has scored in last 3 home games, showing positive attacking momentum
The context
Burnley sit 23rd in the league with just three points from six games, while Derby are 22nd with four points from seven matches. Both teams have found wins hard to come by, making this clash crucial for momentum.
Key insights
Zian Flemming
Burnley
Flemming’s scoring rate of 1.0 goals per game and strong home form make him a key threat for Burnley.
Championship 26/272 goals in 2 appearances, 1.0 goals/game
Aaron Ramsey
Burnley
Ramsey contributes both offensively and defensively, with above average tackling and a recent goal.
Championship 26/271 goal in 6 appearances, 0.17 goals/game; 1.5 tackles/game vs 0.64 league avg
Bobby Clark
Derby
Clark leads Derby’s creativity with 2 assists but is doubtful, which could impact Derby’s attacking threat.
Championship 26/272 assists in 6 appearances, 0.33 assists/game
Max Alleyne
Burnley
Alleyne’s 88% passing accuracy from defence aids Burnley’s build-up play and attacking transitions.
Championship 26/271 assist in 6 appearances, 0.17 assists/game; 88% passing accuracy
Analysis
Burnley’s attacking duo, Zian Flemming and Aaron Ramsey, have been key contributors, with Flemming boasting an impressive goal per game ratio at home. Derby’s creativity largely depends on Bobby Clark, who leads their assists but is a doubt for this match. Burnley’s Max Alleyne also offers a passing edge from defence. Derby’s confirmed absence of Carlton Morris weakens their attack, tipping the scales slightly in Burnley’s favour.
Key facts
- 1.Burnley are 23rd in the league with 3 points from 6 games (W0 D3 L3).
- 2.Derby are 22nd with 4 points from 7 games (W1 D1 L5).
- 3.Burnley’s Zian Flemming has scored 2 goals in 2 appearances, averaging 1.0 goals per game.
- 4.Derby’s Bobby Clark leads with 2 assists but is doubtful for this match.
- 5.Burnley’s Max Alleyne has a passing accuracy of 88%, above the league average for defenders.
- 6.Carlton Morris is confirmed out for Derby, reducing their attacking options.
- 7.The predicted halftime score is 1-1, with a fulltime score of 2-1 to Burnley.
- 8.Four cards are expected in this competitive fixture.
Prediction
The most likely outcome is a Burnley win by 2-1, with the halftime score predicted at 1-1. The match is expected to be competitive, with around four cards shown, reflecting the intensity of the battle.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Burnley
Away — Derby
The verdict
Burnley’s home scoring streak and attacking form should be enough to see them through a tight encounter against Derby. Expect a lively game with both sides pushing hard, but ultimately Burnley will claim the points.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Igor
Yellow Card
Amdouni
Assist: Pires
Ahmedhodžić
Yellow Card
Hatate
Edwards
Hedges
Mowatt
Ozoh
Yellow Card
Laurent
Yellow Card
Amdouni
Bruun Larsen
Ozoh
Taylor
Raghouber
Yellow Card
Blackett-Taylor
Yellow Card
Pires
Fuseini
Assist: Brewster
Match Statistics
Burnley
4-4-2Starting XI
- 3Max AlleyneM
- 5R. HatateM
- 7J. Bruun LarsenF
- 10M. EdwardsM
- 11Z. AmdouniF
- 14C. RobertsD
- 15A. AhmedhodžićD
- 23Lucas PiresD
- 29J. LaurentM
- 37G. CoudertG
- 44IgorD
Substitutes
- 1M. WeißG
- 2K. WalkerD
- 8U. RaghouberM
- 9J. VardyF
- 17A. HountondjiF
- 18H. EkdalD
- 19L. RamazaniF
- 22O. SonneD
- 27A. BrojaF
Derby
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4D. OzohM
- 6S. LangåsD
- 8B. ClarkM
- 9C. MorrisF
- 11S. SzmodicsM
- 18C. TaylorD
- 20A. MowattM
- 23J. WardD
- 26R. HedgesM
- 28D. SandersonD
- 31J. VickersG
Substitutes
- 10R. BrewsterF
- 12R. O'DonnellG
- 15L. SalvesenF
- 16M. FuseiniF
- 22M. JohnstonD
- 27L. TravisM
- 29O. FrauloM
- 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
- 42Raymond OfforD
Burnley
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Amdouni | F | 73 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/4 |
| Lucas Pires | D | 89 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| L. Ramazani | F | 29 | 7.0 | — | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| C. Roberts | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Igor | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| R. Hatate | M | 61 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| A. Ahmedhodžić | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Sonne | D | 1 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Hountondji | F | 17 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. Vardy | F | 17 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Max Alleyne | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| U. Raghouber | M | 29 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Coudert | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Laurent | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Edwards | M | 61 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Bruun Larsen | F | 73 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/4 |
| M. Weiß | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Broja | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Ekdal | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Walker | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Derby
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Fuseini | F | 24 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| J. Ward | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| D. Sanderson | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| A. Mowatt | M | 66 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Taylor | D | 82 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Brewster | F | 12 | 6.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| S. Langås | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Morris | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| R. Hedges | M | 66 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| O. Fraulo | M | 24 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| C. Blackett-Taylor | F | 8 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Ozoh | M | 78 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| S. Szmodics | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Vickers | G | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Clark | M | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| L. Salvesen | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Johnston | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Travis | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raymond Offor | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. O'Donnell | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Burnley vs Derby?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Burnley to win against Derby.
- What score did Fipster predict for Burnley vs Derby?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Burnley 2–1 Derby.
- What were the win probabilities for Burnley vs Derby?
- Fipster's model gave Burnley a 78% chance of winning, Derby a 11% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 78% confidence — a high-confidence call.