Burnley vs Charlton
Match recap
Burnley and Charlton drew 2–2 in their Championship fixture. Bruun Larsen and Ramazani scored for Burnley; Ramsay and Mesík replied for Charlton. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.09 for Burnley versus 2.01 for Charlton. Burnley sit 22nd in the Championship table while Charlton are 20th.
Outcome probability
Burnley face Charlton in the 10th round of the regular season, with both sides eager to improve their league standings. Despite Burnley's tough start, their recent scoring consistency suggests they can challenge Charlton's midfield creativity.
Match factors
Burnley missing key attackers due to injuries
Burnley has 10 attackers confirmed out, weakening their offensive options and reducing scoring threats.
Burnley shows scoring consistency despite poor results
Burnley has scored in their last 5 matches, indicating attacking persistence despite no wins so far.
Charlton's midfield creativity stands out
Charlton's midfielders like Campbell and Ahearne-Grant show strong assist and goal involvement, boosting their attacking potential.
Burnley's defensive players contribute to attack
Lucas Pires and R. Hatate provide assists and goals from deeper positions, adding unpredictability to Burnley's attack.
The context
Burnley sit 24th in the league with 4 points from 8 games, yet have managed to score in their last five matches, showing attacking persistence despite no wins. Charlton are 10th with 13 points from 9 games, boasting a better goal difference and points-per-game ratio, thanks largely to their midfield's creative contributions.
Key insights
- K
K. Ahearne-Grant
Charlton
Top scorer for Charlton with multiple goals, consistently threatening in midfield.
Championship 26/27Multiple goals this season with strong match ratings.
- T
T. Campbell
Charlton
Recent goal scorer and assist provider, key in build-up play and midfield creativity.
Championship 26/27High involvement in goals and assists this season.
- L
Lucas Pires
Burnley
Contributes assists from defense, adding unpredictability to Burnley’s attack.
Championship 26/27Strong recent match ratings and key passes.
- R
R. Hatate
Burnley
Creative midfielder with recent goal and assist contributions, vital for Burnley’s offense.
Championship 26/27High match ratings and creative passing stats.
Analysis
Charlton's midfielders, including Campbell and Ahearne-Grant, have been key in generating goals and assists, providing a notable attacking threat. However, Burnley's defensive players like Lucas Pires and R. Hatate add unpredictability with their assist and goal contributions from deeper positions. Burnley's injury woes have weakened their attack, but their scoring consistency and tactical resilience could prove decisive.
Key facts
- 1.Burnley are 24th in the league with 4 points from 8 games (W0 D4 L4).
- 2.Charlton are 10th with 13 points from 9 games (W3 D4 L2).
- 3.Charlton have a significantly better goal difference (+5) than Burnley.
- 4.Charlton average 1.44 points per game compared to Burnley’s 0.50.
- 5.Burnley have scored in their last 5 matches despite no wins.
- 6.Charlton’s midfielders Campbell and Ahearne-Grant contribute significantly to goals and assists.
- 7.Burnley’s Lucas Pires and R. Hatate provide attacking support from defensive and midfield positions.
- 8.The predicted match will likely see 4 cards, indicating a competitive game.
Prediction
The prediction favours a home win for Burnley with a 2-1 scoreline. A halftime lead of 1-0 aligns with the expected fulltime result, suggesting Burnley will start strongly and hold on despite Charlton's efforts. The match is also expected to see around four cards, indicating a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Burnley
Away — Charlton
The verdict
Burnley’s determination to break their winless streak, combined with their ability to find the net consistently, should see them edge out Charlton in this fixture. Charlton's midfield creativity will keep things interesting, but the home side's tactical edge and resilience are likely to secure the three points.
Prediction generated 10 Oct 2026, 15:57 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Bruun Larsen
Assist: Laurent
Ramsay
Assist: Jones
Ramazani
Assist: Igor
Coventry
Yellow Card
Igor
Yellow Card
Vardy
Bruun Larsen
Leaburn
McNamara
Bell
Skipp
Ramazani
Campbell
Alleyne
Yellow Card
Mesík
Ahmedhodžić
Match Statistics
Burnley
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2K. WalkerD
- 3Max AlleyneM
- 5R. HatateM
- 7J. Bruun LarsenM
- 9J. VardyF
- 15A. AhmedhodžićD
- 19L. RamazaniM
- 23Lucas PiresD
- 29J. LaurentM
- 37G. CoudertG
- 44IgorD
Substitutes
- 1M. WeißG
- 8U. RaghouberM
- 10M. EdwardsF
- 14C. RobertsD
- 17A. HountondjiF
- 18H. EkdalD
- 22O. SonneD
- 27A. BrojaF
- 30L. CastellF
Charlton
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2K. RamsayD
- 5L. JonesD
- 6C. CoventryM
- 7T. CampbellM
- 9K. Ahearne-GrantM
- 11M. LeaburnF
- 12Billy Dawson KoumetioD
- 13A. OkonkwoG
- 17A. BellD
- 20D. McNamaraM
- 34O. SkippM
Substitutes
- 8H. KnibbsM
- 14S. CareyM
- 18I. MesíkD
- 19M. AlliF
- 23C. KelmanF
- 25W. MannionG
- 32A. MwambaD
- 33Micah MbickF
- 44Tyler BindonD
Burnley
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ramazani | M | 80 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Bruun Larsen | M | 71 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0/1 |
| J. Laurent | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 4 | 0/2 |
| M. Edwards | F | 19 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3/4 |
| Igor | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | — |
| K. Walker | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Max Alleyne | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| A. Ahmedhodžić | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| A. Hountondji | F | 10 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Vardy | F | 71 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Lucas Pires | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/4 |
| G. Coudert | G | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Hatate | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 4 | — | — | — |
| A. Broja | F | 19 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| C. Roberts | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Castell | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| U. Raghouber | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Weiß | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Sonne | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Ekdal | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Charlton
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Ramsay | D | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| L. Jones | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| C. Coventry | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. McNamara | M | 74 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| M. Alli | F | 4 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| T. Campbell | M | 86 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Micah Mbick | F | 16 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| C. Kelman | F | 15 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Leaburn | F | 74 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| O. Skipp | M | 75 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| H. Knibbs | M | 16 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Billy Dawson Koumetio | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| I. Mesík | D | 15 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bell | D | 75 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| K. Ahearne-Grant | M | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| A. Okonkwo | G | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Bindon | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| W. Mannion | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Mwamba | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Carey | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Burnley vs Charlton?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Burnley to win against Charlton.
- What score did Fipster predict for Burnley vs Charlton?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Burnley 2–1 Charlton.
- What were the win probabilities for Burnley vs Charlton?
- Fipster's model gave Burnley a 85% chance of winning, Charlton a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.