Burnley vs Bristol City
Bristol City snatch win at Burnley
A late strike from Y. Hirakawa seals a 2-1 victory for the visitors.
Burnley took the lead through A. Ramsey just after the hour mark, but Bristol City fought back with R. Dickie's equaliser in the 82nd minute. Y. Hirakawa then clinched the win deep into stoppage time, completing a dramatic turnaround. Fipster's low-confidence call for an away win proved accurate, though the exact scoreline was slightly off.
Outcome probability
The new season kicks off with Burnley, freshly relegated from the Premier League, facing Bristol City. Both sides will be eager to set the tone early, with Burnley looking to bounce back and Bristol City aiming to assert their Championship credentials.
Key facts
- 1.Burnley were relegated from the Premier League after finishing 19th last season.
- 2.Bristol City finished 12th in the Championship last season with 62 points from 46 games.
- 3.Burnley have signed G. Coudert and A. Ahmedhodžić ahead of the new season.
- 4.Bristol City have lost R. McCrorie to transfer and released M. Sykes as a free agent.
- 5.Bristol City have a better goal difference and points-per-game than Burnley from last season.
- 6.The predicted halftime score is 1-2, consistent with the full-time prediction of 2-3.
- 7.Aggregate probabilities favour an away win at 43.8%, higher than home win and draw probabilities.
The context
Burnley enter this fixture after a tough campaign that saw them finish 19th in the Premier League, while Bristol City secured 12th place in the Championship last season. The Clarets have strengthened their squad with the arrivals of G. Coudert and A. Ahmedhodžić, while losing J. Anthony, L. Ugochukwu (loan), and M. Estève. Bristol City have seen departures too, with R. McCrorie transferring out and M. Sykes released as a free agent.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Burnley
Away — Bristol City
Analysis
The prediction leans towards an away win for Bristol City, with a 3-2 scoreline the most probable outcome. The halftime score of 1-2 suggests an early advantage for the visitors, who have a notable points-per-game edge over Burnley from last season. Despite Burnley's Premier League experience, the aggregate probabilities favour Bristol City, reflecting their solid Championship form and goal difference superiority. Expect an open game with plenty of attacking intent from both sides.
Prediction
We anticipate Bristol City to edge this encounter 3-2, overcoming Burnley by a narrow margin. The match promises goals and drama, with the away side likely to hold on to their lead after a lively first half.
The verdict
This season opener sets the stage for an intriguing campaign. Burnley will be keen to respond to their relegation setback, while Bristol City will look to build on their stable Championship position. A thrilling 3-2 victory for the visitors seems the fitting start to the season.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Ekdal
Yellow Card
Hountondji
Ekdal
Ramsey
Assist: Hatate
Yah
Wallace
Hatate
Ramazani
Twine
Pring
Tolaj
Dickie
Assist: Cardines
Walker
Yellow Card
Ramsey
Hirakawa
Broja
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 17 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 |  Bristol City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 |  Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 23 |  Preston | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 |  Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Match Statistics
Burnley
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1M. WeißG
- 2K. WalkerD
- 3Max AlleyneD
- 5R. HatateM
- 8U. RaghouberM
- 17A. HountondjiF
- 18H. EkdalD
- 19L. RamazaniM
- 21A. RamseyM
- 22O. SonneD
- 29J. LaurentM
Substitutes
- 7J. Bruun LarsenF
- 11Z. AmdouniF
- 14C. RobertsD
- 15A. AhmedhodžićD
- 27A. BrojaF
- 28H. MejbriM
- 30L. CastellF
- 37G. CoudertG
- 99IgorD
Bristol City
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1S. TickleG
- 2L. EissatD
- 3C. PringD
- 8J. WilliamsM
- 9L. TolajF
- 10S. TwineM
- 12J. KnightM
- 16R. DickieD
- 17J. WallaceM
- 21Rio CardinesD
- 27G. YahM
Substitutes
- 4A. RandellM
- 7Y. HirakawaM
- 14T. HorvatM
- 19G. TannerD
- 20S. GreenwoodM
- 23D. BallardF
- 38N. EileD
- 40B. CollinsG
Burnley
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ramsey | M | 85 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | — | — |
| Max Alleyne | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| U. Raghouber | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 4/5 |
| Z. Amdouni | F | 27 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Ahmedhodžić | D | 44 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Ramazani | M | 70 | 6.7 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| R. Hatate | M | 63 | 6.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| J. Laurent | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/4 |
| A. Broja | F | 44 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| H. Ekdal | D | 46 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Weiß | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Sonne | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| A. Hountondji | F | 46 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| H. Mejbri | M | 5 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Bruun Larsen | F | 20 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| K. Walker | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| L. Castell | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Coudert | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Roberts | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Bristol City
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Dickie | D | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Y. Hirakawa | M | 29 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 1/2 |
| Rio Cardines | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| L. Eissat | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| S. Twine | M | 72 | 6.8 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| D. Ballard | F | 29 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| J. Williams | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| G. Tanner | D | 18 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Knight | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Wallace | M | 61 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| L. Tolaj | F | 80 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | — |
| G. Yah | M | 61 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Tickle | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Pring | D | 72 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| S. Greenwood | M | 18 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Collins | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Eile | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Horvat | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Randell | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Burnley vs Bristol City?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Bristol City to win against Burnley.
- What score did Fipster predict for Burnley vs Bristol City?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Burnley 2–3 Bristol City.
- What were the win probabilities for Burnley vs Bristol City?
- Fipster's model gave Burnley a 32% chance of winning, Bristol City a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.