Burnley vs Aston Villa
Match recap
Burnley and Aston Villa drew 2–2 in their Premier League fixture. Anthony and Flemming scored for Burnley; Barkley and Watkins replied for Aston Villa. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.77 for Burnley versus 1.42 for Aston Villa. Burnley sit 19th in the Premier League table while Aston Villa are 4th.
Analysis
Burnley host Aston Villa in a Premier League fixture where the visitors are tipped to continue their strong run. With Villa's attacking threats and Burnley's defensive struggles, this match promises a competitive edge.
Burnley sit precariously at 19th with just 20 points, struggling with a poor goal difference of -36. Aston Villa, comfortably placed 5th with 58 points and a +4 goal difference, have the upper hand historically and in current form. Villa have won nearly half of their head-to-head meetings, adding to their confidence.
Villa's creative midfielders and forwards, including Armando Broja and Ollie Watkins (fitness permitting), pose significant threats against Burnley's leaky defence. Burnley's top scorer, Z. Flemming, is doubtful, weakening their attacking options. Villa's Q. Hartman and M. Rogers provide key assists, enhancing their goal-scoring chances. The predicted halftime score of 0-1 aligns with Villa's away strength, with a fulltime 1-2 scoreline reflecting Villa's likely dominance.
Prediction
Expect Aston Villa to clinch a 2-1 away win over Burnley, with the visitors taking an early lead and managing to hold on despite Burnley's efforts. The match should see around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Burnley missing key scorer Flemming
Flemming is injured/doubtful, reducing Burnley's main goal threat and offensive potency.
Villa's top scorer Watkins questionable
Watkins' injury status is uncertain, potentially limiting Villa's attacking firepower.
Villa's creative midfield depth
Villa has multiple creative midfielders with good assist records, likely to unlock Burnley's defense.
Burnley's defensive frailty at home
Burnley concedes 1.5 goals per home game, Villa's attack can exploit this weakness.
Villa's better recent form and scoring consistency
Villa has higher win percentage and scoring rate recently, supporting predicted away win.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Aston Villa's superior form, attacking depth, and Burnley's defensive vulnerabilities make a Villa victory the most probable outcome. Fans can anticipate a closely fought match with Villa edging it 2-1 on the road.
- Aston Villa have won 5 of 11 meetings against Burnley, who have won only 2.
- Burnley are 19th in the league with 20 points; Aston Villa are 5th with 58 points.
- Burnley have a poor goal difference of -36 compared to Villa's +4 this season.
- Villa's top scorer Ollie Watkins is questionable due to fitness concerns.
- Burnley's top scorer Z. Flemming is doubtful, reducing their attacking threat.
- Villa's Q. Hartman leads assists with 5, showing strong creative form.
- Burnley concede an average of 1.5 goals per home game, a defensive weakness.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Burnley
Away — Aston Villa
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Anthony
Goal cancelled
Barkley
Assist: McGinn
Mings
Yellow Card
Watkins
Assist: Martínez
Flemming
Assist: Mejbri
Flemming
Yellow Card
Mejbri
Maatsen
Lindelöf
Flemming
Ugochukwu
Cash
Barkley
McGinn
Anthony
Florentino
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | +44 | 85 |
| 3 |  Manchester United | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | +19 | 71 |
| 4 |  Aston Villa | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | +7 | 65 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | +10 | 60 |
| 18 |  West Ham | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | -19 | 39 |
| 19 |  Burnley | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | -37 | 22 |
| 20 |  Wolves | 38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | -41 | 20 |
Match Statistics
Burnley
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2K. WalkerD
- 5M. EstèveD
- 6A. TuanzebeD
- 8L. UgochukwuM
- 11J. AnthonyM
- 13M. WeißG
- 16FlorentinoM
- 17L. TchaounaM
- 19Z. FlemmingF
- 23Lucas PiresD
- 28H. MejbriM
Substitutes
- 1M. DúbravkaG
- 3Q. HartmanD
- 7J. Bruun LarsenF
- 9L. FosterF
- 12B. HumphreysD
- 20J. Ward-ProwseM
- 25Z. AmdouniF
- 27A. BrojaF
- 29J. LaurentM
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2M. CashD
- 3V. LindelöfM
- 4E. KonsaD
- 5T. MingsD
- 6R. BarkleyM
- 7J. McGinnM
- 8Y. TielemansM
- 11O. WatkinsF
- 22I. MaatsenD
- 23E. MartínezG
- 27M. RogersM
Substitutes
- 10E. BuendíaM
- 12L. DigneD
- 14Pau TorresD
- 18T. AbrahamF
- 19J. SanchoF
- 21Douglas LuizM
- 26L. BogardeM
- 31L. BaileyF
- 40M. BizotG
Burnley
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannibal Mejbri | M | 69 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 4 | 0/1 |
| Kyle Walker(C) | D | 97 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lesley Ugochukwu | M | 79 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Zian Flemming | F | 79 | 7.0 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| Loum Tchaouna | M | 97 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Max Weiss | G | 97 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Florentino Luís | M | 87 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Jaidon Anthony | M | 87 | 6.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 0/3 |
| Maxime Estève | D | 97 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Pires | D | 97 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3/3 |
| Axel Tuanzebe | D | 97 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Martin Dúbravka | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Armando Broja | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bashir Humphreys | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Quilindschy Hartman | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen | F | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| James Ward-Prowse | M | 10 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Laurent | M | 18 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Lyle Foster | F | 28 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zeki Amdouni | F | 18 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
Aston Villa
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Youri Tielemans | M | 97 | 7.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Ollie Watkins | F | 97 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Ezri Konsa | D | 97 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ross Barkley | M | 80 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2/2 |
| John McGinn(C) | M | 85 | 6.7 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0/2 |
| Emiliano Martínez | G | 97 | 6.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Ian Maatsen | D | 74 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/4 |
| Tyrone Mings | D | 97 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Victor Lindelöf | M | 74 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matty Cash | D | 80 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Morgan Rogers | M | 97 | 5.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Jadon Sancho | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pau Torres | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marco Bizot | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tammy Abraham | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Digne | D | 23 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Emiliano Buendía | M | 23 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Douglas Luiz | M | 17 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Lamare Bogarde | M | 17 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leon Bailey | F | 12 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |