Bulgaria vs Estonia
Bulgaria and Estonia settle for stalemate
A goalless draw keeps both sides locked in a tight contest.
Bulgaria and Estonia played out a 0-0 draw in the UEFA Nations League, with neither side able to break the deadlock. This result defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a narrow home win, proving that sometimes the net just refuses to bulge.
Outcome probability
Bulgaria and Estonia face off in a League C fixture of the UEFA Nations League, both eager to improve their standing after mixed starts. With neither side having secured a win yet, this match promises a competitive battle.
Match factors
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both Bulgaria and Estonia have full squads available, no confirmed outs to affect lineups or tactics.
Bulgaria's home scoring streak vs Estonia's away scoring
Bulgaria scored in their only recent home match while Estonia scored away in their last game, supporting a 2-1 predicted scoreline.
Defensive solidity from Estonia's goalkeeper K. Hein
K. Hein's high rating and passing ability suggest Estonia can organize well defensively despite conceding once recently.
Bulgaria's positive scoring streak at home
Bulgaria scored in their last home match but also conceded twice, indicating attacking potential but defensive vulnerability.
The context
Bulgaria have played one match in this competition, losing 2-1 at home, while Estonia have drawn their only game 1-1 away. Both teams have shown they can find the net but also concede, setting the stage for a close contest.
Key insights
- D
D. Velkovski
Bulgaria
Highest rating in Bulgaria's recent home match, providing an assist and strong tackling.
UEFA Nations League 26/27Rating 7.09, 4 tackles in 90 mins
- R
R. Peetson
Estonia
Key defensive and offensive contributor with an assist and solid tackling in Estonia's away match.
UEFA Nations League 26/27Rating 6.13, 2 tackles
- K
K. Hein
Estonia
Crucial in limiting goals conceded and showing above average passing for a goalkeeper.
UEFA Nations League 26/27Rating 7.39, 43 passes
- I
I. Gruev
Bulgaria
High passing volume and solid defensive work in Bulgaria's recent home match.
UEFA Nations League 26/2763 passes, 1 tackle
Analysis
The probabilities for all outcomes are fairly close, but Bulgaria hold a slight edge with a 34% chance of victory compared to Estonia's 31.5% and a 29.5% chance of a draw. Bulgaria's recent home match saw them score but also concede twice, indicating attacking potential tempered by defensive vulnerabilities. Estonia's goalkeeper K. Hein impressed with a high rating and solid passing, suggesting Estonia can organise well defensively. Key players like Bulgaria's D. Velkovski, who provided an assist and showed strong tackling, and Estonia's R. Peetson, who contributed defensively and offensively, will be pivotal.
Key facts
- 1.Bulgaria have played 1 match in this competition (0W,0D,1L, GF 1, GA 2).
- 2.Estonia have played 1 match in this competition (0W,1D,0L, GF 1, GA 1).
- 3.Bulgaria scored in their last home match but conceded twice.
- 4.Estonia's goalkeeper K. Hein had a rating of 7.39 in their last away match.
- 5.D. Velkovski provided an assist and made 4 tackles in Bulgaria's recent home match.
- 6.R. Peetson contributed an assist and 2 tackles in Estonia's recent away match.
- 7.No confirmed injuries for either team.
Prediction
We predict a narrow 2-1 victory for Bulgaria. The home side's slight statistical edge and scoring streak at home give them the advantage, but Estonia's resilience and defensive organisation mean this will be a tight affair with goals at both ends.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Bulgaria
Away — Estonia
The verdict
Expect a competitive match with Bulgaria just shading it thanks to their home scoring form and key player contributions. Estonia will not make it easy, but the hosts should claim the three points in a 2-1 finish.
Prediction generated 26 Sep 2026, 17:57 UTC · Fipster Model v1.162
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Velkovski
Yellow Card
Tsonev
Yellow Card
Tsonev
Karel Mustmaa
Stoyanov
Dimitrov
Paskotši
Yellow Card
Käit
Soomets
Petkov
Turitsov
Saarma
Dimitrov
Yellow Card
Kristal
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Bulgaria
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1D. NaumovG
- 4I. GruevM
- 5K. DimitrovD
- 7B. TsonevM
- 10Z. DimitrovF
- 13S. VelkovD
- 16M. PetkovF
- 19I. TuritsovD
- 20L. PetkovF
- 21D. VelkovskiD
- 22K. StoyanovM
Substitutes
- 2Y. StoyanovM
- 3A. HristovD
- 6E. TsenovD
- 8A. KraevM
- 9S. IvanovF
- 11P. PanayotovM
- 12D. MitovG
- 14A. ChandarovM
- 15H. PetrovD
- 17M. MinchevF
- 18K. BalovF
- 23A. BozhevG
Estonia
5-3-2Starting XI
- 1K. HeinG
- 3M. PaskotšiD
- 4M. KäitM
- 5E. TõugjasD
- 7R. SaarmaD
- 8M. SoometsM
- 9Karel MustmaaF
- 14P. KristalF
- 18K. MetsD
- 19M. Schjønning-LarsenD
- 20M. PoomM
Substitutes
- 2M. KuuskD
- 6R. PeetsonD
- 10K. PalumetsM
- 11M. AinsaluM
- 12M. IgonenG
- 13J. SalisteD
- 15M. SkvortsovM
- 16J. TammD
- 17M. MillerM
- 21M. MännilaanF
- 22K. VallnerG
- 23F. LiivakM
Bulgaria
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Panayotov | M | 44 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| D. Naumov | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Velkov | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| K. Balov | F | 44 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/5 |
| Y. Stoyanov | M | 17 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| K. Stoyanov | M | 46 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Turitsov | D | 73 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| I. Gruev | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | — |
| K. Dimitrov | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| A. Chandarov | M | 44 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Ivanov | F | 20 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Z. Dimitrov | F | 46 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| M. Petkov | F | 70 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| L. Petkov | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/2 |
| D. Velkovski | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| B. Tsonev | M | 46 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| D. Mitov | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Hristov | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Kraev | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Petrov | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Tsenov | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bozhev | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Minchev | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Estonia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Hein | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Käit | M | 58 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| M. Poom | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| K. Mets | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| K. Palumets | M | 32 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| E. Tõugjas | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Männilaan | F | 44 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| F. Liivak | M | 16 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Miller | M | 32 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Soomets | M | 58 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Kristal | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/2 |
| Karel Mustmaa | F | 46 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Schjønning-Larsen | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Paskotši | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| R. Saarma | D | 74 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| R. Peetson | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ainsalu | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Tamm | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Vallner | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Kuusk | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Skvortsov | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Igonen | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Saliste | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Bulgaria vs Estonia?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Bulgaria to win against Estonia.
- What score did Fipster predict for Bulgaria vs Estonia?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Bulgaria 2–1 Estonia.
- What were the win probabilities for Bulgaria vs Estonia?
- Fipster's model gave Bulgaria a 35% chance of winning, Estonia a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.