Bournemouth vs Sunderland
Bournemouth's early strike seals Sunderland shutout
A quickfire opener and a second-half goal keep Sunderland scoreless at the Vitality Stadium.
Bournemouth secured a 2-0 victory over Sunderland in the Premier League, with M. Tavernier's early goal setting the tone and Evanilson doubling the lead just after the break. Despite Fipster's high-confidence prediction favouring Sunderland to win 2-1, the home side comfortably shut out their visitors, delivering an upset against the forecast.
Outcome probability
Bournemouth and Sunderland face off in what promises to be a tightly contested league stage match. Both sides have struggled for consistent form this season, making this encounter a crucial opportunity to climb the table.
Match factors
Bournemouth missing key attackers to injury
Bournemouth have multiple attackers confirmed out, weakening their scoring options and likely reducing goal threat.
Sunderland's top scorer doubtful but could impact
Brian Brobbey is doubtful due to muscle injury but has scored 3 goals recently; if fit, he significantly boosts Sunderland's attack.
Marcus Tavernier's strong recent form
Tavernier has scored multiple goals with high match ratings, providing Bournemouth with a key attacking outlet despite team struggles.
Sunderland's attacking midfield creativity
Enzo Le Fée's recent goal and assist contributions and set-piece role give Sunderland a creative edge in midfield.
Sunderland's better away scoring rate
Sunderland average 1.67 goals away compared to Bournemouth's 1.0 at home, supporting the predicted away win.
The context
The two teams have a balanced head-to-head record with two wins each and two draws from six meetings, averaging 2.5 goals per match. Bournemouth sit 17th with no wins so far, while Sunderland are slightly better placed at 14th with one win. Both teams are eager to improve their league standing.
Key insights
- M
Marcus Tavernier
Bournemouth
Tavernier has been Bournemouth's key attacking outlet with multiple goals and consistently high match ratings, providing some hope despite team struggles.
Premier League 26/27Multiple goals and ratings between 7.3-8.2 in recent matches.
- B
Brian Brobbey
Sunderland
Brobbey is doubtful but his recent 3-goal haul means his availability could significantly boost Sunderland's attack.
Premier League 26/273 goals recently in this competition season.
- E
Enzo Le Fée
Sunderland
Le Fée's creativity and set-piece prowess give Sunderland an attacking edge, contributing goals and assists recently.
Premier League 26/27Recent goal and assist contributions, key set-piece taker.
Analysis
Sunderland's away scoring rate of 1.67 goals per game surpasses Bournemouth's home average of 1.0, giving the visitors a statistical edge. Bournemouth's attack is weakened by injuries to key forwards, while Sunderland's creative midfield, led by Enzo Le Fée, offers a threat with goals and assists. Marcus Tavernier remains Bournemouth's standout performer, but Sunderland's attacking options, including the doubtful but potentially impactful Brian Brobbey, could tip the scales.
Key facts
- 1.Bournemouth and Sunderland have each won 2 of their 6 head-to-head matches, with 2 draws.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 2.5 goals per game, indicating a relatively open contest.
- 3.Bournemouth are 17th in the league with 3 points from 5 games (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses).
- 4.Sunderland are 14th with 4 points from 5 games (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses).
- 5.Sunderland average 1.67 goals per away game compared to Bournemouth's 1.0 at home.
- 6.Bournemouth's key attackers are sidelined, reducing their goal threat.
- 7.Brian Brobbey is doubtful for Sunderland but has scored 3 goals recently.
- 8.Marcus Tavernier has been Bournemouth's most consistent performer with multiple goals.
Prediction
The prediction favours Sunderland to win 2-1, reflecting their superior away form and attacking potential. The scoreline aligns with historical averages and current team dynamics, suggesting a narrow but confident away victory.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Bournemouth
Away — Sunderland
The verdict
Expect a competitive match with Sunderland edging out Bournemouth by a single goal margin. Both teams will fight hard, but Sunderland's attacking creativity and better away record should see them through.
Prediction generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Tavernier
Assist: Evanilson
Danso
Red Card
António Silva
Yellow Card
Alderete
Yellow Card
Cook
Yellow Card
Evanilson
Tuterov
Alderete
Cook
Rigg
Rigg
Yellow Card
Tavernier
Christie
Yellow Card
Evanilson
Rayan
Adams
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | +9 | 24 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +7 | 14 |
| 7 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 8 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 |
Match Statistics
Bournemouth
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Đ. PetrovićG
- 3A. TruffertD
- 4L. CookM
- 5J. HillD
- 9EvanilsonF
- 10R. ChristieM
- 12T. AdamsM
- 14António SilvaD
- 15A. SmithD
- 16M. TavernierM
- 37RayanM
Substitutes
- 6J. SolerD
- 7D. BrooksM
- 11B. DoakF
- 18B. DiakitéD
- 19J. KluivertF
- 20M. Di GregorioG
- 21A. AdliF
- 24Juanlu SánchezM
- 30Á. RodríguezF
Sunderland
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4K. DansoD
- 11C. RiggM
- 15O. AldereteD
- 17ReinildoD
- 20N. MukieleD
- 22R. RoefsG
- 27N. SadikiM
- 28E. Le FéeM
- 32T. HumeM
- 34G. XhakaM
- 57Timur TuterovF
Substitutes
- 6D. MethalieD
- 7C. TalbiF
- 10N. AnguloF
- 13L. O'NienM
- 19H. DiarraM
- 29Jules AhokaM
- 31M. EllborgG
- 39M. FofanaF
- 50J. AnguloF
Bournemouth
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evanilson | F | 79 | 9.0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2/2 |
| M. Tavernier | M | 79 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0/1 |
| J. Hill | D | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| A. Truffert | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| António Silva | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Smith | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| L. Cook | M | 62 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| B. Diakité | D | 1 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rayan | M | 89 | 7.0 | — | — | 7 | 3 | 1 | — |
| T. Adams | M | 89 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| R. Christie | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 3 | — | 4 | — |
| B. Doak | F | 1 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| A. Adli | F | 11 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Kluivert | F | 28 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| Á. Rodríguez | F | 11 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Đ. Petrović | G | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Soler | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juanlu Sánchez | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Di Gregorio | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Brooks | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sunderland
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Sadiki | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| G. Xhaka | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| Timur Tuterov | F | 59 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| E. Le Fée | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Reinildo | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. O'Nien | M | 31 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Rigg | M | 65 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Diarra | M | 31 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Roefs | G | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jules Ahoka | M | 25 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| T. Hume | M | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| N. Mukiele | D | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Danso | D | 17 | 5.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| O. Alderete | D | 59 | 5.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Fofana | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Methalie | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Angulo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ellborg | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Angulo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Talbi | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Sunderland to win against Bournemouth.
- What score did Fipster predict for Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Bournemouth 1–2 Sunderland.
- What were the win probabilities for Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
- Fipster's model gave Bournemouth a 2% chance of winning, Sunderland a 95% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.