Bournemouth vs Leeds
Bournemouth secure solid win over Leeds
Evanilson and Adli seal a 2-0 victory for the Cherries.
Bournemouth claimed a confident 2-0 victory against Leeds in the Premier League, with Evanilson opening the scoring in the first half and A. Adli adding a late flourish in stoppage time. The result was a comfortable home win that matched Fipster's prediction, albeit with a slightly wider margin than expected.
Outcome probability
Bournemouth and Leeds face off in what promises to be a closely contested league stage encounter. Both sides have shown glimpses of quality this season, but expect a tight game with few clear-cut chances early on.
Match factors
Bournemouth's attacking midfield strength
Marcus Tavernier's high scoring and minutes give Bournemouth a key edge in midfield attack
Evanilson's dual threat as scorer and assister
Evanilson leads Bournemouth in assists and is second top scorer, boosting attack options
Leeds' defensive solidity with James Justin
Justin's high tackle rate and duel success bolster Leeds' defense against Bournemouth's attack
No confirmed absences for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so tactical choices will be key
The context
This fixture sees Bournemouth sitting 13th with 9 points from 8 games, while Leeds are slightly ahead in 9th place with 10 points from 7 matches. Their head-to-head history is fairly balanced, with Leeds winning 4 of 7 meetings and Bournemouth 2, and an average of 4.1 goals per match in those encounters.
Key insights

Marcus Tavernier
Bournemouth
Leads Bournemouth scoring with 5 goals, including 3 in the last 5 games, making him a key attacking threat.
Premier League 26/275 goals in 8 appearances, 0.625 goals/game

Evanilson
Bournemouth
Top assister with 4 assists and second top scorer with 3 goals, providing a dual threat in attack.
Premier League 26/273 goals and 4 assists in 8 appearances
- J
James Justin
Leeds
Leads Leeds in tackles and interceptions, providing defensive solidity against Bournemouth's attack.
Premier League 26/272.6 tackles per game, 63.9% duel win rate
Analysis
Bournemouth's attacking threat is spearheaded by Marcus Tavernier, who leads the team with 5 goals this season, including 3 in his last 5 games, making him a key figure in their midfield attack. Evanilson also poses a dual threat, contributing 3 goals and 4 assists, showcasing his importance in both scoring and creating opportunities. Leeds will rely on the defensive solidity of James Justin, who leads the team in tackles and interceptions, aiming to stifle Bournemouth's attacking midfield. Both teams have full squads available, so tactical nuances will likely decide this encounter.
Key facts
- 1.Bournemouth are 13th in the league with 9 points from 8 games (W2 D3 L3).
- 2.Leeds sit 9th with 10 points from 7 games (W2 D4 L1).
- 3.Leeds have won 4 of 7 head-to-head meetings; Bournemouth have won 2; 1 draw.
- 4.Past meetings average 4.1 goals per match, indicating historically open games.
- 5.Marcus Tavernier leads Bournemouth with 5 goals in 8 appearances.
- 6.Evanilson has 3 goals and 4 assists, contributing significantly to Bournemouth's attack.
- 7.James Justin leads Leeds in tackles and interceptions, bolstering their defence.
- 8.No confirmed absences for either team, so full squads expected.
Prediction
The most probable outcome is a narrow 1-0 win for Bournemouth, with the first half expected to end goalless. This suggests a tight match where defenses hold firm early on before Bournemouth find a late breakthrough. Expect a disciplined game with around four cards issued, reflecting competitive but controlled play.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Bournemouth


Away — Leeds
The verdict
In summary, Bournemouth's home advantage and attacking midfield prowess should be enough to secure a slender victory over Leeds. While Leeds have the defensive tools to keep things tight, the hosts' ability to capitalise on key moments is likely to make the difference in this closely matched league stage fixture.
Prediction generated 27 Oct 2026, 14:27 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Goal cancelled
Evanilson
Assist: Kluivert
Yellow Card
Elvedi
Yellow Card
Christie
Yellow Card
Ampadu
Yellow Card
James
Gudmundsson
Tanaka
Kluivert
Christie
Adams
Yellow Card
Evanilson
Wilson
Justin
Smith
Rayan
Adli
Match Statistics
Bournemouth
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Đ. PetrovićG
- 3A. TruffertD
- 5J. HillD
- 9EvanilsonF
- 10R. ChristieM
- 12T. AdamsM
- 14António SilvaD
- 15A. SmithD
- 16M. TavernierM
- 19J. KluivertM
- 37RayanM
Substitutes
- 4L. CookM
- 6J. SolerD
- 7D. BrooksM
- 11B. DoakF
- 18B. DiakitéD
- 20M. Di GregorioG
- 21A. AdliF
- 22E. KroupiF
- 30Á. RodríguezF
Leeds
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1J. TraffordG
- 2J. BogleM
- 3G. GudmundssonM
- 4E. AmpaduM
- 5T. MuharemovićD
- 7D. JamesM
- 9D. Calvert-LewinF
- 10H. WilsonM
- 22A. TanakaM
- 24J. JustinD
- 30N. ElvediD
Substitutes
- 8S. LongstaffM
- 11B. AaronsonM
- 14L. NmechaF
- 15J. BijolD
- 16M. ZettererG
- 18A. StachM
- 23J. BahoyaF
- 26M. BardD
- 44I. GruevM
Bournemouth
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evanilson | F | 76 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| J. Kluivert | M | 68 | 7.6 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| António Silva | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Christie | M | 68 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| J. Hill | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| M. Tavernier | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
| A. Truffert | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| B. Diakité | D | 2 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Kroupi | F | 22 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| L. Cook | M | 22 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Á. Rodríguez | F | 14 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Đ. Petrović | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Smith | D | 88 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| A. Adli | F | 2 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Adams | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Rayan | M | 88 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| J. Soler | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Doak | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Di Gregorio | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Brooks | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Leeds
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Justin | D | 84 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Bogle | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Trafford | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Muharemović | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Tanaka | M | 65 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Bahoya | F | 6 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| L. Nmecha | F | 25 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/3 |
| H. Wilson | M | 84 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | — |
| B. Aaronson | M | 6 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. James | M | 65 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/3 |
| N. Elvedi | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Stach | M | 25 | 6.1 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| E. Ampadu | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| D. Calvert-Lewin | F | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| S. Longstaff | M | 25 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| G. Gudmundsson | M | 65 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| M. Zetterer | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Bijol | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Gruev | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Bard | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Bournemouth vs Leeds?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Bournemouth to win against Leeds.
- What score did Fipster predict for Bournemouth vs Leeds?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Bournemouth 1–0 Leeds.
- What were the win probabilities for Bournemouth vs Leeds?
- Fipster's model gave Bournemouth a 47% chance of winning, Leeds a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 47% confidence — a medium-confidence call.





