Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama stuns Botafogo with late double
A. Lescano and David strike to seal a narrow away win.
Vasco DA Gama secured a 2-1 victory at Botafogo in Serie A, overturning expectations with goals from A. Lescano in the first half and David shortly after the break. Botafogo's Alex Telles pulled one back but it wasn't enough to prevent Vasco DA Gama from taking the points. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a Botafogo clean sheet and home win.
Outcome probability
As the regular season nears its climax, Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama face off in a match that promises to highlight the gulf in their current league fortunes. With Botafogo sitting comfortably higher in the table, they look poised to extend their advantage.
Match factors
Danilo Santos' home scoring form
Danilo Santos has scored 2 goals in last 3 home games, boosting Botafogo's attacking threat at home.
Álvaro Montoro's creative influence
Montoro leads Botafogo with 5 assists and 2 in last 5 games, key to unlocking defenses.
Botafogo's recent home scoring streak
Botafogo scored in 4 of last 5 home games, showing strong offensive momentum at home.
Full squad availability for Botafogo
No confirmed injuries for Botafogo, allowing full strength squad deployment.
J. Rodríguez's dual role for Vasco DA Gama
Rodríguez provides defensive stability and attacking assists, crucial for Vasco's balance.
The context
Botafogo currently occupy 11th place with 35 points from 28 games, while Vasco DA Gama linger in 17th with 28 points from 26 matches. Historically, Botafogo have a slight edge in their head-to-head record, having won 9 of their 20 encounters compared to Vasco's 7 victories. This season, Botafogo's goal difference of +8 contrasts sharply with Vasco's -12, underscoring the home side's stronger overall performance.
Key insights
Danilo Santos
Botafogo
Danilo Santos has scored 2 goals in his last 3 home games, boosting Botafogo's attacking threat at home.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 20 games, 2 in last 3 home games
Álvaro Montoro
Botafogo
Montoro leads Botafogo with 5 assists this season and has provided 2 assists in the last 5 games, key to unlocking defences.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 26 games, 2 in last 5 games
- J
J. Rodríguez
Vasco DA Gama
Rodríguez provides defensive stability and attacking support with 4 assists, crucial for Vasco's balance.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 26 games
Analysis
Botafogo's recent home form is encouraging, having scored in four of their last five home games. Danilo Santos, their top scorer with 9 goals, has been particularly effective at home, netting twice in his last three appearances on familiar turf. Álvaro Montoro's creative spark, with 5 assists this season and 2 in the last five games, will be key to unlocking Vasco's defence. Vasco DA Gama's J. Rodríguez offers both defensive solidity and attacking support, but the visitors' struggles this season suggest they will find it tough to breach Botafogo's backline.
Key facts
- 1.Botafogo lead the head-to-head with 9 wins in 20 matches against Vasco DA Gama's 7.
- 2.Botafogo have a better goal difference (+8) compared to Vasco DA Gama's -12 this season.
- 3.Botafogo rank 11th with 35 points from 28 games; Vasco DA Gama are 17th with 28 points from 26 games.
- 4.Botafogo have scored in 4 of their last 5 home games, showing strong offensive form at home.
- 5.Danilo Santos is Botafogo's top scorer with 9 goals, including 2 in his last 3 home games.
- 6.Álvaro Montoro leads Botafogo with 5 assists this season, including 2 in the last 5 games.
- 7.J. Rodríguez is Vasco DA Gama's top assister with 4 assists and provides defensive stability.
Prediction
We anticipate Botafogo to take an early lead, reflected in a 1-0 halftime scoreline. Their momentum and home advantage should see them add a second goal in the second half, sealing a 2-0 victory. The match is also expected to be moderately physical, with around four cards likely to be shown.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Botafogo
Away — Vasco DA Gama
No standout top scorers flagged for Vasco DA Gama
The verdict
In summary, Botafogo's superior form, home scoring streak, and key player contributions make them the clear favourites to win this encounter 2-0. Vasco DA Gama will need to tighten up defensively and find a way to disrupt Botafogo's rhythm if they are to avoid defeat.
Prediction generated 20 Sep 2026, 01:29 UTC · Fipster Model v1.158
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Lescano
Assist: Duarte
Duarte
David
Assist: Colidio
Medina
Telles
Lescano
Hinestroza
Matheus Martins
Goal cancelled
Cabral
Vitinho
Ziyech
Goal cancelled
Red Card
Paulo Henrique
Colidio
Ferraresi
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | +3 | 41 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -4 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | -8 | 36 |
| 15 |  Vasco DA Gama | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | -7 | 35 |
| 16 |  Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
Match Statistics
Botafogo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2VitinhoD
- 3Arthur ChavesD
- 5N. FerraresiD
- 6C. MedinaM
- 8Danilo SantosM
- 11Matheus MartinsM
- 12Gabriel BatistaG
- 13Alex TellesD
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 22H. ZiyechM
- 75HuguinhoM
Substitutes
- 4M. PonteD
- 7Júnior SantosF
- 9Tiquinho SoaresF
- 17WarlesonG
- 21MarçalD
- 25AllanM
- 29PaulinhoD
- 33L. MonzónD
- 37K. BarriaF
- 59Kauan ToledoM
- 90DaniloF
- 91Domingos AndradeM
Vasco DA Gama
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 1Léo JardimG
- 4A. SaldiviaD
- 5S. SosaM
- 9F. ColidioM
- 18M. HinestrozaM
- 19Bruno DuarteF
- 22A. LescanoM
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 30Robert RenanD
- 66CuiabanoD
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
Substitutes
- 2J. RodríguezD
- 3Tchê TchêM
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 7DavidF
- 8JairM
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 17Nuno MoreiraM
- 28AdsonF
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 55Gabriel PereiraD
- 77C. SpinelliF
- 83Ramon RiqueM
Botafogo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Batista | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Telles | D | 90 | 7.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Arthur Chaves | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| H. Ziyech | M | 80 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| Huguinho | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| N. Ferraresi | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Tiquinho Soares | F | 10 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Júnior Santos | F | 33 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/2 |
| K. Barria | F | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Martins | M | 69 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/4 |
| C. Medina | M | 57 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Kauan Toledo | M | 21 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Danilo Santos | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ponte | D | 10 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitinho | D | 80 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Arthur Cabral | F | 80 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Domingos Andrade | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Allan | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Warleson | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paulinho | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marçal | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Danilo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Monzón | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Vasco DA Gama
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lescano | M | 65 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| David | F | 48 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | — |
| F. Colidio | M | 88 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3/8 |
| Bruno Duarte | F | 42 | 7.5 | — | 1 | 3 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Paulo Henrique | D | 88 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| Cuiabano | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| A. Saldivia | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robert Renan | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Rodríguez | D | 2 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Léo Jardim | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Sosa | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Nuno Moreira | M | 2 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Adson | F | 25 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Hinestroza | M | 65 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Tchê Tchê | M | 25 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Mendes | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Gabriel Pereira | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Fuzato | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Freitas | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jair | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ramon Rique | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Piton | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Spinelli | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Botafogo to win against Vasco DA Gama.
- What score did Fipster predict for Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Botafogo 2–0 Vasco DA Gama.
- What were the win probabilities for Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fipster's model gave Botafogo a 95% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.