Botafogo vs Mirassol
Match recap
Botafogo beat Mirassol 3–2 in their Serie A fixture. Cabral, Telles, and Júnior Santos scored for Botafogo; Shaylon and Igor Formiga replied for Mirassol. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.38 for Botafogo versus 0.98 for Mirassol. Botafogo sit 11th in the Serie A table while Mirassol are 15th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-1 Botafogo win
Actual
3–2
Outcome probability
Botafogo and Mirassol face off in a regular season encounter where the home side looks poised to take all three points. Both teams have had their moments this season, but Botafogo's attacking edge and home form give them the slight upper hand.
Match factors
Botafogo's midfield scoring edge
Danilo Santos leads midfield scoring with 9 goals, providing Botafogo a key attacking advantage
Alex Telles' dual threat
Alex Telles contributes 4 goals and 4 assists, exceptional for a defender, boosting Botafogo's attack
Álvaro Montoro's creative form
Montoro has 2 assists in last 5 matches, showing strong recent creativity for Botafogo
Igor Formiga's assist threat for Mirassol
Formiga's 5 assists and recent form make him a key playmaker for Mirassol
Full squad availability for both teams
No confirmed injuries or suspensions, so all key players are available for selection
The context
This match is part of the 2026 regular season, round 9. Botafogo currently sit 13th in the league with 36 points from 30 games, while Mirassol are close behind in 15th with 33 points. Their previous head-to-head meetings show Botafogo with a slight advantage, having won once and drawn twice against Mirassol.
Key insights
Danilo Santos
Botafogo
Danilo Santos leads Botafogo's midfield scoring with 9 goals, including 3 in the last 5 matches, making him a key attacking threat at home.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 22 apps, 0.41 avg per game
Alex Telles
Botafogo
Alex Telles offers a dual threat with 4 goals and 4 assists, boosting Botafogo's attack especially on set pieces.
Serie A 26/274 goals and 4 assists in 27 apps
Álvaro Montoro
Botafogo
Montoro has been creative recently with 2 assists in the last 5 matches, enhancing Botafogo's offensive options.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 25 apps, 0.2 avg per game
Igor Formiga
Mirassol
Formiga is Mirassol's key playmaker with 5 assists this season, contributing significantly to their build-up play.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 27 apps, 0.19 avg per game
Analysis
Botafogo's midfield dynamo Danilo Santos leads the charge with 9 goals this season, including a strong recent run of 3 goals in the last 5 matches, making him a key threat especially at home. Defender Alex Telles adds to the attacking threat with 4 goals and 4 assists, an impressive tally for a defender and a vital outlet on set pieces. Álvaro Montoro's creativity, with 5 assists and 2 in the last 5 games, further boosts Botafogo's offensive options. Mirassol will rely on Igor Formiga's playmaking skills, as he tops their assists chart with 5 this season. Both teams have their full squads available, so expect a competitive match with Botafogo's home advantage and attacking depth likely to tip the scales.
Key facts
- 1.Botafogo are 13th in the league with 36 points from 30 games (W9 D9 L12).
- 2.Mirassol are 15th with 33 points from 30 games (W8 D9 L13).
- 3.In 3 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo have won 1, Mirassol none, with 2 draws.
- 4.Danilo Santos is Botafogo's top scorer with 9 goals this season.
- 5.Alex Telles has contributed 4 goals and 4 assists for Botafogo this season.
- 6.Álvaro Montoro leads Botafogo with 5 assists, including 2 in the last 5 matches.
- 7.Igor Formiga is Mirassol's top assister with 5 assists this season.
Prediction
We predict a 2-1 victory for Botafogo. The home side's probability of winning is dominant, with the 2-1 scoreline being the most likely outcome. While the confidence in the exact score is low, the overall expectation is that Botafogo will edge out Mirassol in a closely contested match.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Botafogo
Away — Mirassol
The verdict
In summary, Botafogo's attacking midfield and set-piece prowess should be enough to overcome Mirassol's resilience. Expect a tight game with Botafogo clinching a narrow win to boost their league standing.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 23:32 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Oliveira
Yellow Card
Cabral
Assist: Edenílson
Shaylon
Penalty confirmed
Telles
Penalty
Negueba
Yellow Card
Medina
Yellow Card
Vitinho
Yellow Card
Rodríguez
Tiquinho Soares
Yellow Card
Telles
José Aldo
Júnior Santos
Medina
Cabral
Tiquinho Soares
Negueba
Edenílson
Unknown
Shaylon
Bartolomeu Jacinto Quissanga
Yellow Card
Igor Formiga
Assist: Pires
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | +1 | 41 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
Match Statistics
Botafogo
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 1RaulG
- 2VitinhoD
- 6C. MedinaM
- 13Alex TellesD
- 15Bartolomeu Jacinto QuissangaD
- 17Júnior SantosM
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 23S. RodríguezM
- 25AllanM
- 34G. JustinoD
- 88EdenílsonM
Substitutes
- 3YthalloD
- 4M. PonteD
- 5N. FerraresiD
- 10Álvaro MontoroM
- 11Matheus MartinsF
- 14J. BarreraM
- 16Nathan FernandesF
- 24Léo LinckG
- 27Caio RoqueD
- 28NewtonM
- 75HuguinhoD
- 77L. VillalbaF
Mirassol
4-2-2-2Starting XI
- 3Willian MachadoD
- 7ShaylonM
- 11NeguebaM
- 12Victor LuísD
- 21José AldoM
- 22WalterG
- 29Tiquinho SoaresF
- 32Igor FormigaD
- 34João VictorD
- 77AlessonF
Substitutes
- 2Lucas OliveiraD
- 8DenilsonM
- 10ChicoM
- 17Everton GaldinoF
- 18Gabriel PiresD
- 20Daniel BorgesD
- 23Alex MuralhaG
- 26L. MugniM
- 27A. GaleanoF
- 95EdsonF
- 99André LuísF
Botafogo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Júnior Santos | M | 99 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 6/8 |
| Arthur Cabral | F | 70 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Edenilson | M | 77 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Cristian Medina | M | 70 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Alex Telles(C) | D | 63 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Allan | M | 99 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Santiago Rodríguez | M | 62 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Gabriel Justino | D | 99 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bastos | D | 99 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitinho | D | 99 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Raul | G | 99 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Ythallo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateo Ponte | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Villalba | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Huguinho | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nathan Fernandes | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Newton | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Léo Linck | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álvaro Montoro | M | 29 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Matheus Martins | F | 29 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Nahuel Ferraresi | D | 22 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Jordan Barrera | M | 37 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Caio Roque | D | 36 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Mirassol
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Formiga | D | 99 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2/2 |
| Shaylon | M | 77 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Neto Moura | M | 77 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| João Victor(C) | D | 99 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| José Aldo | M | 64 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Willian Machado | D | 99 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tiquinho Soares | F | 73 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Walter | G | 99 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alesson | F | 99 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1/6 |
| Negueba | M | 73 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Victor Luis | D | 99 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Lucas Oliveira | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chico | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Mugni | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Everton Galdino | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yuri Lara | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Borges | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Muralha | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Pires | D | 22 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Denilson | M | 22 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antonio Galeano | F | 26 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| André Luis | F | 35 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Edson Carioca | F | 26 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Botafogo vs Mirassol?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Botafogo to win against Mirassol.
- What score did Fipster predict for Botafogo vs Mirassol?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Botafogo 2–1 Mirassol.
- What were the win probabilities for Botafogo vs Mirassol?
- Fipster's model gave Botafogo a 35% chance of winning, Mirassol a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.