Botafogo vs Gremio
Botafogo edge Gremio in five-goal thriller
Danilo Santos shines with a brace as Botafogo hold on for a narrow win.
Botafogo secured a 3-2 victory over Gremio in a lively Serie A encounter, with Danilo Santos starring by netting twice, including a crucial goal after the break. Álvaro Montoro also contributed to the home side's tally, while Gremio fought back through Jovane Cabral and Gustavo Martins but fell just short. Fipster's prediction of a home win was spot on, though the actual scoreline proved more dramatic than the anticipated 2-0.
Outcome probability
Botafogo and Gremio face off in a regular season encounter where the home side looks poised to take all three points. With both teams sitting mid-table, this match could be pivotal for their league ambitions.
Match factors
Botafogo's midfield scoring edge
Danilo Santos' 7 goals from midfield provide Botafogo a scoring threat beyond forwards
Arthur Cabral's finishing consistency
Arthur Cabral has 7 goals this season with strong minutes and starting role, key to Botafogo's attack
Alex Telles' creative influence
Alex Telles offers set-piece threat and 3 assists from defense, enhancing Botafogo's attacking options
Cristian Pavón's assist form for Gremio
Pavón has 4 assists this season and recent good form, key to Gremio's chance creation
Full squad availability boosts Botafogo
No confirmed injuries for Botafogo ensures strongest lineup and attacking options
The context
Botafogo currently sit 14th with 31 points from 25 games, while Gremio are just behind in 15th with 28 points from 26 matches. Historically, Gremio have had the upper hand in their 20 meetings, but recent form suggests Botafogo might have the edge this time around.
Key insights
Danilo Santos
Botafogo
Danilo Santos' 7 goals from midfield provide Botafogo a scoring threat beyond their forwards, crucial for breaking down defences.
Serie A 26/277 goals in 18 appearances, 83.8 avg mins/game
Arthur Cabral
Botafogo
Arthur Cabral has been a consistent finisher with 7 goals this season, making him a key figure in Botafogo's attack especially at home.
Serie A 26/277 goals in 21 appearances, 81.8 avg mins/game
Alex Telles
Botafogo
Alex Telles offers creativity and set-piece threat from defence, contributing 3 assists and adding an extra dimension to Botafogo's play.
Serie A 26/273 assists in 22 appearances, 77.4 avg mins/game
Cristian Pavón
Gremio
Cristian Pavón's 4 assists and recent good form make him a key creative outlet for Gremio's attack.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 23 appearances, 77.7 avg mins/game
Analysis
Botafogo's attacking threat is bolstered by Arthur Cabral, who has netted 7 goals this season and is a consistent starter. Midfielder Danilo Santos adds an extra scoring dimension with 7 goals himself, providing Botafogo with a midfield edge. Defensively, Alex Telles contributes creativity and set-piece prowess, enhancing their attacking options. Gremio's main threat comes from Carlos Vinícius, their top scorer with 10 goals, and Cristian Pavón, who leads their assists tally. However, Botafogo's balanced squad and home advantage are likely to see them control the game and keep a clean sheet.
Key facts
- 1.Botafogo are 14th in the league with 31 points from 25 games (W8 D7 L10).
- 2.Gremio are 15th with 28 points from 26 games (W7 D7 L12).
- 3.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo have won 7, Gremio 11, with 2 draws.
- 4.Arthur Cabral has scored 7 goals this season and is a key home scorer for Botafogo.
- 5.Danilo Santos has contributed 7 goals from midfield, adding to Botafogo's attacking threat.
- 6.Carlos Vinícius leads Gremio with 10 goals this season.
- 7.Cristian Pavón has provided 4 assists and is in good form for Gremio.
Prediction
The prediction is a 2-0 victory for Botafogo, with a 1-0 lead at halftime. The match is expected to be competitive but controlled, with Botafogo capitalising on their home form and key players to secure the win. Discipline should be maintained with around four cards expected, fitting the typical pattern for such fixtures.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Botafogo
Away — Gremio
The verdict
In summary, Botafogo's combination of midfield goals, attacking consistency, and home advantage should see them comfortably overcome Gremio. Expect a solid performance that delivers the predicted 2-0 scoreline, giving Botafogo valuable points in the league.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Santos
Assist: Montoro
Jovane Cabral
Edenílson
Monzón
Montoro
Assist: Vitinho
Jovane Cabral
Krovinović
Júnior Santos
Pavón
Noriega
Noriega
Yellow Card
Santos
Assist: Montoro
Montoro
Cabral
Martins
Assist: Tetê
Goal cancelled
Santos
Yellow Card
Card upgrade cancelled
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 11 |  Sao Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 |  Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 |  Vitoria | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | -14 | 33 |
| 16 |  Vasco DA Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 |  Gremio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 |  Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
Match Statistics
Botafogo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2VitinhoD
- 3Arthur ChavesD
- 7Júnior SantosM
- 8Danilo SantosM
- 10Álvaro MontoroM
- 12Gabriel BatistaG
- 13Alex TellesD
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 33L. MonzónD
- 75HuguinhoM
- 88EdenílsonM
Substitutes
- 9Tiquinho SoaresF
- 17WarlesonG
- 21MarçalD
- 25AllanM
- 29PaulinhoD
- 34G. JustinoD
- 42Kadu SantosD
- 59Kauan ToledoM
- 77L. VillalbaF
- 79Lucas EmanuelF
- 90DaniloF
- 91Domingos AndradeM
Gremio
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1WevertonG
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 7C. PavónM
- 8E. NoriegaM
- 10F. KrovinovićM
- 20M. VillasantiM
- 27Diego CaitoD
- 38Caio PaulistaD
- 77Jovane CabralM
- 82WallaceD
- 95Carlos ViníciusF
Substitutes
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 4W. KannemannD
- 5J. NardoniM
- 11TetêF
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 14Marcos RochaD
- 15Danilo BarbosaM
- 18João PedroD
- 22M. BraithwaiteF
- 30Matheus NascimentoF
- 31G. MenegonG
- 99J. EnamoradoF
Botafogo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álvaro Montoro | M | 79 | 8.9 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0/1 |
| Danilo Santos | M | 90 | 8.4 | 2 | — | 3 | 3 | — | 2/2 |
| Vitinho | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Tiquinho Soares | F | 4 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Huguinho | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| L. Monzón | D | 45 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Danilo | F | 45 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Telles | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Arthur Cabral | F | 86 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| G. Justino | D | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marçal | D | 17 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Allan | M | 11 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Edenílson | M | 45 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Arthur Chaves | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Batista | G | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Júnior Santos | M | 73 | 5.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Domingos Andrade | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Warleson | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paulinho | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Emanuel | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kadu Santos | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauan Toledo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Villalba | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Gremio
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jovane Cabral | M | 59 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| Gustavo Martins | D | 90 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Tetê | F | 12 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Weverton | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Villasanti | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Wallace | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Enamorado | F | 31 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| C. Pavón | M | 78 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 5 | 2/3 |
| F. Krovinović | M | 66 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| M. Braithwaite | F | 24 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diego Caito | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| Caio Paulista | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/4 |
| E. Noriega | M | 78 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| Carlos Vinícius | F | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Matheus Nascimento | F | 12 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Rocha | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wagner Leonardo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Danilo Barbosa | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Nardoni | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Grando | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Pedro | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| W. Kannemann | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Botafogo vs Gremio?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Botafogo to win against Gremio.
- What score did Fipster predict for Botafogo vs Gremio?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Botafogo 2–0 Gremio.
- What were the win probabilities for Botafogo vs Gremio?
- Fipster's model gave Botafogo a 75% chance of winning, Gremio a 12% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 75% confidence — a high-confidence call.