Botafogo vs Fluminense
Match recap
Botafogo and Fluminense drew 1–1 in their Serie A fixture. Telles scored for Botafogo; Ignacio replied for Fluminense. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.06 for Botafogo versus 0.94 for Fluminense. Botafogo sit 11th in the Serie A table while Fluminense are 5th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-2 Botafogo win
Actual
1–1
Outcome probability
Botafogo and Fluminense face off in what promises to be a lively encounter in the regular season. Both teams have shown attacking intent, and this fixture is expected to deliver goals and excitement.
Match factors
Botafogo's midfield scoring edge
Danilo Santos leads with 9 goals, providing Botafogo a midfield scoring threat that can exploit Fluminense's defense
Alex Telles' dual threat from defense
Alex Telles contributes 4 goals and 4 assists, well above average for defenders, boosting Botafogo's attacking options
Fluminense's attacking form led by Savarino and Hulk
Savarino has 3 goals in last 5 and Hulk 2 goals in last 5, indicating strong recent attacking form
No confirmed absences for either team
Both teams have full squads available, ensuring strongest lineups and tactical plans
The context
Botafogo currently sit 13th in the league with 36 points from 30 games, while Fluminense hold a stronger position in 4th place with 51 points. Historically, their head-to-head record is fairly balanced with Botafogo winning 9 of 20 meetings and Fluminense 8, alongside 3 draws.
Key insights
Danilo Santos
Botafogo
Leads Botafogo’s scoring with 9 goals, showing strong recent form and key home performances.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 22 appearances, 0.41 goals/game
Alex Telles
Botafogo
Provides a dual threat with 4 goals and 4 assists, boosting Botafogo’s attacking options from defence.
Serie A 26/274 goals and 4 assists in 27 appearances
- J
Jefferson Savarino Quintero
Fluminense
In good recent form with 3 goals in last 5 games, a key attacking outlet for Fluminense.
Serie A 26/276 goals in 22 appearances, 0.27 goals/game
Hulk
Fluminense
Strong away form with 2 goals in last 5 games, a main attacking threat for Fluminense.
Serie A 26/276 goals in 11 appearances, 0.55 goals/game
Analysis
Botafogo's midfield spearheaded by Danilo Santos, who leads the team with 9 goals this season, offers a significant attacking threat. Defender Alex Telles also adds value with 4 goals and 4 assists, making Botafogo's attack more versatile. Fluminense's attacking hopes rest on Jefferson Savarino Quintero and Hulk, both in good recent form with goals in their last five matches. The match is expected to be competitive, with both sides capable of scoring, but Botafogo's home advantage and midfield firepower could prove decisive.
Key facts
- 1.Botafogo are 13th in the league with 36 points from 30 games (W9 D9 L12).
- 2.Fluminense are 4th in the league with 51 points from 30 games (W14 D9 L7).
- 3.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo have won 9, Fluminense 8, with 3 draws.
- 4.Danilo Santos leads Botafogo with 9 goals this season, including strong recent form.
- 5.Alex Telles contributes 4 goals and 4 assists, a notable attacking threat from defence.
- 6.Jefferson Savarino Quintero and Hulk lead Fluminense's attack with recent goals.
- 7.The predicted halftime score is 1-1, with a final score of 3-2 favouring Botafogo.
- 8.Four cards are expected, indicating a physical match.
Prediction
The prediction favours a home win for Botafogo with a final scoreline of 3-2. The halftime score is expected to be 1-1, reflecting a tight first half before Botafogo pull ahead in the second. The match should feature a handful of cards, with four predicted, indicating a competitive and physical contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Botafogo
Away — Fluminense
The verdict
Expect a thrilling encounter with Botafogo narrowly overcoming Fluminense thanks to their midfield prowess and home advantage. Both teams will push for goals, but the hosts are tipped to take all three points in a 3-2 thriller.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 10:08 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Telles
Ignacio
Yellow Card
Ignacio
Assist: Serna
Toledo
Villalba
Ferraresi
Yellow Card
Telles
PH Ganso
Serna
Nonato
Yellow Card
Xavier
Yellow Card
Nonato
Soteldo
Castillo
Barrera
Montoro
Justino
Yellow Card
Marçal
Yellow Card
Marçal
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | +1 | 41 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
Match Statistics
Botafogo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2VitinhoD
- 5N. FerraresiD
- 6C. MedinaM
- 8Danilo SantosM
- 10Álvaro MontoroM
- 13Alex TellesD
- 17WarlesonG
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 34G. JustinoD
- 59Kauan ToledoM
- 77L. VillalbaM
Substitutes
- 4M. PonteD
- 9DaniloF
- 11Matheus MartinsF
- 12Gabriel BatistaG
- 14J. BarreraM
- 21MarçalD
- 29PaulinhoD
- 33L. MonzónD
- 37K. BarriaF
- 79Lucas EmanuelF
- 88EdenílsonM
Fluminense
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1FábioG
- 2Samuel XavierD
- 4IgnacioD
- 6RenêD
- 10PH GansoM
- 16NonatoM
- 19R. CastilloF
- 30Y. SoteldoM
- 44JemmesD
- 90K. SernaM
- 94OtávioM
Substitutes
- 7HulkF
- 8MartinelliM
- 11J. SavarinoF
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 14G. CanoF
- 17A. CanobbioF
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 23GugaD
- 27MarceloG
- 28RiquelmeF
- 32L. AcostaM
- 35HérculesM
Botafogo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álvaro Montoro | M | 85 | 8.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 3/4 |
| Alex Telles(C) | D | 70 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Danilo Santos | M | 95 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 2/4 |
| Nahuel Ferraresi | D | 95 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Warleson | G | 95 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauan Toledo | M | 59 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Gabriel Justino | D | 95 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Cristian Medina | M | 95 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Vitinho | D | 95 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| Arthur Cabral | F | 95 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0/2 |
| Lucas Villalba | M | 59 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Gabriel Batista | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Edenilson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Monzón | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateo Ponte | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marçal | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kadir Barría | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Martins | F | 36 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/5 |
| Lucas Emanuel | F | 10 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Danilo | F | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Paulinho | D | 25 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jordan Barrera | M | 26 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
Fluminense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignácio | D | 95 | 8.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Kevin Serna | M | 70 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3/4 |
| Jemmes | D | 95 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Samuel Xavier(C) | D | 95 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Renê | D | 95 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Otávio | M | 95 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Yeferson Soteldo | M | 79 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 3/5 |
| Fábio | G | 95 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ganso | M | 70 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 5 | — |
| Rodrigo Castillo | F | 85 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nonato | M | 79 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Guga | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Arana | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcelo Pitaluga | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Riquelme Felipe | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Germán Cano | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Rabello | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martinelli | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Agustín Canobbio | F | 25 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hulk | F | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Hércules | M | 25 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luciano Acosta | M | 16 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jefferson Savarino | F | 16 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Botafogo vs Fluminense?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Botafogo to win against Fluminense.
- What score did Fipster predict for Botafogo vs Fluminense?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Botafogo 3–2 Fluminense.
- What were the win probabilities for Botafogo vs Fluminense?
- Fipster's model gave Botafogo a 64% chance of winning, Fluminense a 18% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 64% confidence — a medium-confidence call.