Botafogo vs Flamengo
Match recap
Flamengo beat Botafogo 3–0 in their Serie A fixture. Lino, Léo Pereira, and Pedro scored for Flamengo. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.75 for Botafogo versus 1.38 for Flamengo. Botafogo sit 11th in the Serie A table while Flamengo are 2nd.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-3 Flamengo win
Actual
0–3
Outcome probability
This clash between Botafogo and Flamengo promises a lively contest, with both sides eager to assert their attacking prowess. Flamengo's recent form and goal-scoring threat make them slight favourites, but Botafogo's home efforts could keep things tight.
Match factors
Flamengo's attacking midfield depth
Flamengo's midfielders Carrascal and Samuel Lino provide strong creative and scoring threat, compensating for Arrascaeta's absence
Pedro's prolific scoring form
Pedro leads Flamengo with 15 goals this season, showing consistent scoring ability and high minutes played
Danilo Santos' recent scoring impact
Danilo Santos has scored 2 goals in last 5 home games, key to Botafogo's attack despite team's defensive struggles
Absence of Jordan Barrera weakens Botafogo midfield
Barrera is confirmed out, reducing Botafogo's midfield creativity and depth for this match
Alex Telles' set-piece threat
Alex Telles' set-piece delivery and assist record provide Botafogo with key attacking opportunities from wide areas
The context
In the regular season's sixth round, Flamengo sit comfortably near the top of the league standings, boasting a superior points-per-game ratio and goal difference compared to Botafogo, who are positioned lower down the table. Historically, Flamengo have dominated recent encounters, winning the majority of their 20 meetings.
Key insights
Pedro
Flamengo
Pedro leads Flamengo with 15 goals this season, showing consistent scoring ability and high minutes played, making him a key threat.
Serie A 26/2715 goals in 28 apps, 0.54 goals/game
Danilo Santos
Botafogo
Danilo Santos has scored 2 goals in his last 5 home games, crucial to Botafogo's attack despite the team's defensive struggles.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 22 apps, 0.41 goals/game
J. Carrascal
Flamengo
Carrascal is Flamengo's top assister with 8 assists, providing key creative influence and linking midfield to attack effectively.
Serie A 26/278 assists in 22 apps, 0.36 assists/game
Alex Telles
Botafogo
Alex Telles offers a set-piece threat with 4 assists this season, contributing to Botafogo's attacking opportunities from wide areas.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 26 apps, 0.15 assists/game
Analysis
Flamengo's attacking midfield depth, led by the creative J. Carrascal and goal-scoring Samuel Lino, compensates well for the absence of key midfielder G. de Arrascaeta. Pedro, Flamengo's top scorer with 15 goals this season, continues to be a significant threat upfront. Botafogo will rely heavily on Danilo Santos, their top scorer with 9 goals, and the set-piece prowess of Alex Telles to challenge Flamengo's defence. Despite Botafogo's spirited efforts, Flamengo's superior form and firepower suggest they will edge this encounter.
Key facts
- 1.Flamengo lead the head-to-head with 14 wins out of 20 meetings.
- 2.Flamengo rank 1st in the league with 61 points from 29 games; Botafogo are 13th with 35 points.
- 3.Flamengo have a goal difference advantage of 37 goals this season.
- 4.Pedro is Flamengo's top scorer with 15 goals this season.
- 5.Danilo Santos is Botafogo's top scorer with 9 goals this season.
- 6.Flamengo have a higher points-per-game average (2.10) compared to Botafogo (1.21).
- 7.The predicted total number of cards in the match is four.
Prediction
The prediction favours an away win for Flamengo with a 3-2 scoreline. The halftime score is expected to be 1-2, reflecting Flamengo's early dominance but Botafogo's resilience. The match is likely to feature four cards, indicating a competitive but controlled affair.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Botafogo
Away — Flamengo
The verdict
While Flamengo are tipped to take the spoils, the narrow predicted margin and Botafogo's home fighting spirit suggest an entertaining and closely contested match. Fans should brace for a game full of attacking intent and moments of quality from key players on both sides.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:44 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Lino
Assist: Varela
Barboza
Yellow Card
Telles
Yellow Card
Allan
Yellow Card
Card upgrade
Barboza
Red Card
Léo Pereira
Allan
Matheus Martins
Pedro
Assist: Varela
Barrera
Pulgar
Yellow Card
Léo Pereira
Alex Sandro
Jorginho
Yellow Card
Pulgar
Cabral
Santos
Carrascal
Jorginho
Match Statistics
Botafogo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1RaulG
- 2VitinhoD
- 6C. MedinaM
- 8Danilo SantosM
- 11Matheus MartinsM
- 13Alex TellesD
- 14J. BarreraM
- 15Bartolomeu Jacinto QuissangaD
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 20A. BarbozaD
- 25AllanM
Substitutes
- 4M. PonteD
- 5N. FerraresiD
- 7ArturF
- 10Álvaro MontoroM
- 17Júnior SantosF
- 24Léo LinckG
- 28NewtonM
- 30J. CorreaF
- 34G. JustinoM
- 45Caio ValleF
- 77L. VillalbaF
- 88EdenílsonM
Flamengo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1A. RossiG
- 2G. VarelaD
- 3Léo OrtizD
- 4Léo PereiraD
- 5E. PulgarM
- 9PedroF
- 15J. CarrascalM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 20Lucas PaquetáM
- 21JorginhoM
- 26Alex SandroD
Substitutes
- 6Ayrton LucasD
- 7Luiz AraújoF
- 10G. de ArrascaetaM
- 11EvertonF
- 13DaniloD
- 19G. PlataF
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 42AndrewG
- 44VitãoD
- 49DyogoG
- 52Evertton AraújoM
- 64WallaceF
Botafogo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Allan | M | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Danilo | M | 81 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Alex Telles(C) | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Vitinho | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/3 |
| Jordan Barrera | M | 55 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/4 |
| Arthur Cabral | F | 71 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Matheus Martins | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Bastos | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Cristian Medina | M | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Alexander Barboza | D | 54 | 5.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Álvaro Montoro | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joaquín Correa | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Léo Linck | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Villalba | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Justino | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caio Valle | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Artur | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nahuel Ferraresi | D | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Edenilson | M | 9 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateo Ponte | D | 35 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Newton | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Júnior Santos | F | 19 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Flamengo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Léo Pereira(C) | D | 65 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Samuel Lino | M | 90 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Léo Ortiz | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Guillermo Varela | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | 2 | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Jorginho | M | 86 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Alex Sandro | D | 65 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jorge Carrascal | M | 86 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 4/5 |
| Lucas Paquetá | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3/4 |
| Pedro | F | 90 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| Agustín Rossi | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick Pulgar | M | 70 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Wallace Yan | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dyogo Alves | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Everton | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emerson Royal | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Danilo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrew | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giorgian De Arrascaeta | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitão | D | 25 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Evertton Araujo | M | 20 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Ayrton Lucas | D | 25 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Gonzalo Plata | F | 11 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Luiz Araújo | F | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Botafogo vs Flamengo?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Flamengo to win against Botafogo.
- What score did Fipster predict for Botafogo vs Flamengo?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Botafogo 2–3 Flamengo.
- What were the win probabilities for Botafogo vs Flamengo?
- Fipster's model gave Botafogo a 27% chance of winning, Flamengo a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 45% confidence — a low-confidence call.