Botafogo vs Coritiba
Match recap
Botafogo and Coritiba drew 2–2 in their Serie A fixture. Santos and Cabral scored for Botafogo; Breno Lopes and Lavega replied for Coritiba. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.51 for Botafogo versus 1.04 for Coritiba. Botafogo sit 11th in the Serie A table while Coritiba are 12th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-1 Botafogo win
Actual
2–2
Outcome probability
Botafogo and Coritiba face off in what promises to be an engaging regular season match. Both sides have shown moments of promise, but Botafogo's recent form and attacking prowess suggest they will come out on top.
Match factors
Danilo Santos' scoring form boosts Botafogo attack
Danilo Santos leads Botafogo with 9 goals and 3 in last 5 games, driving their predicted 3 goals
Álvaro Montoro's creative influence key for Botafogo
Montoro's 5 assists and 2 in last 5 games make him a prime assist candidate for Botafogo's goals
Alex Telles' set-piece threat adds scoring dimension
Telles has 4 assists and 4 goals this season, above average for defenders, enhancing Botafogo's attack
Coritiba's top scorers lack recent goals
Breno Lopes and Pedro Rocha have 8 goals each but no goals in last 5 matches, limiting threat
Josué's playmaking vital for Coritiba's offense
Josué leads Coritiba with 10 assists, strong home form, crucial for creating chances
The context
This fixture is part of the 11th round of the regular season in league 71. Botafogo currently sit 13th with 36 points from 30 games, while Coritiba are slightly ahead in 10th place with 39 points. The two teams have met 20 times before, with Botafogo winning half of those encounters.
Key insights
Danilo Santos
Botafogo
Danilo Santos leads Botafogo's scoring with 9 goals, including 3 in the last 5 games, making him a key threat at home.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 22 apps, 0.41 avg per game
Álvaro Montoro
Botafogo
Álvaro Montoro is the creative engine with 5 assists this season and 2 in the last 5 games, crucial for Botafogo's attacking play.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 25 apps, 0.2 avg per game
Alex Telles
Botafogo
Alex Telles adds an extra scoring dimension with 4 assists and 4 goals, excelling in set-pieces and crosses.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 27 apps, 0.15 avg per game
Breno Lopes
Coritiba
Breno Lopes is Coritiba's top scorer with 8 goals but has struggled to score in the last 5 matches, limiting his threat.
Serie A 26/278 goals in 25 apps, 0.32 avg per game
Josué
Coritiba
Josué is vital for Coritiba's offense with 10 assists, showing strong home form and playmaking ability.
Serie A 26/2710 assists in 26 apps, 0.38 avg per game
Analysis
Botafogo's attacking threat is led by Danilo Santos, who has netted 9 goals this season, including 3 in his last 5 games, making him a key figure in their offensive setup. Álvaro Montoro's creativity, with 5 assists and strong recent form, adds another dimension to their attack. Coritiba's main scorers, Breno Lopes and Pedro Rocha, have struggled to find the net recently, which could limit their offensive threat. Josué remains a vital playmaker for Coritiba with 10 assists, but Botafogo's superior goal difference and home form give them the edge.
Key facts
- 1.Botafogo have won 10 of 20 head-to-head meetings against Coritiba.
- 2.Botafogo are 13th in the league with 36 points from 30 games.
- 3.Coritiba are 10th with 39 points from 30 games.
- 4.Botafogo have a better goal difference by 5 goals this season.
- 5.Danilo Santos leads Botafogo with 9 goals this season.
- 6.Álvaro Montoro has provided 5 assists for Botafogo this season.
- 7.Breno Lopes is Coritiba's top scorer with 8 goals.
- 8.Josué leads Coritiba with 10 assists this season.
Prediction
We predict Botafogo to take an early lead with a 2-0 advantage at halftime and maintain control to finish the match 3-1. The expected total of 4 cards suggests a competitive but disciplined game. Botafogo's combination of goal-scoring form and creative support should see them comfortably through.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Botafogo
Away — Coritiba
The verdict
In summary, Botafogo's attacking momentum and tactical strengths position them well to secure a 3-1 victory over Coritiba. While Coritiba have their creative outlets, Botafogo's home form and key players are likely to make the difference in this regular season fixture.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:19 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Breno Lopes
Assist: Josué
Montoro
Rodríguez
Hernández
Santos
Assist: Vitinho
Vini Paulista
Barrera
Maicon
Wallisson
Yellow Card
Breno Lopes
Vitinho
Yellow Card
Vitinho
Cabral
Assist: Edenílson
Rocha
Lavega
Melo
Gómez
Pedro Rangel
Yellow Card
Santos
Yellow Card
Barboza
Yellow Card
Jacy
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | +1 | 41 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
Match Statistics
Botafogo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1RaulG
- 2VitinhoD
- 6C. MedinaM
- 8Danilo SantosM
- 10Álvaro MontoroM
- 14J. BarreraM
- 15Bartolomeu Jacinto QuissangaD
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 20A. BarbozaD
- 23S. RodríguezM
- 67J. HernándezD
Substitutes
- 7Júnior SantosF
- 9Chris RamosF
- 11Matheus MartinsF
- 22NetoG
- 25AllanM
- 27Caio RoqueD
- 28NewtonM
- 34G. JustinoD
- 42Kadu SantosD
- 75HuguinhoM
- 77L. VillalbaF
- 88EdenílsonM
Coritiba
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2TingaD
- 3MaiconD
- 10JosuéM
- 11Lucas RonierM
- 19S. GómezM
- 22Pedro RangelG
- 26Bruno MeloD
- 32Pedro RochaF
- 36Vini PaulistaM
- 55JacyD
- 77Breno LopesM
Substitutes
- 6Felipe JonatanD
- 7J. LavegaF
- 8WallissonM
- 13KeillerG
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 23Tiago CóserD
- 28FabinhoF
- 29Willian OliveiraM
- 33D. AlvesF
- 44João Pedro ChermontD
- 78Renato MarquesF
- 88Fernando SobralM
Botafogo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danilo | M | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1/2 |
| Cristian Medina | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Bastos | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arthur Cabral | F | 90 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0/3 |
| Álvaro Montoro | M | 45 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| Alexander Barboza(C) | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Jordan Barrera | M | 65 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Raul | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Santiago Rodríguez | M | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Vitinho | D | 76 | 6.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Jhoan Hernandez | D | 49 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Gabriel Justino | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Huguinho | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Newton | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kadu Santos | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Neto | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Allan | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Júnior Santos | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caio Roque | D | 41 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 0/1 |
| Edenilson | M | 45 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Matheus Martins | F | 25 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/4 |
| Chris Ramos | F | 14 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Lucas Villalba | F | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
Coritiba
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breno Lopes | M | 70 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| Sebastian Gomez(C) | M | 82 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Pedro Rangel | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Ronier | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Jacy Maranhão | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Josué | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | — |
| Tinga | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Pedro Rocha | F | 79 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Maicon | D | 70 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vini Paulista | M | 60 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Bruno Melo | D | 78 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Fernando Sobral | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keiller | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Willian Oliveira | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Alves França | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Pedro Chermont | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabinho | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joaquín Lavega | F | 20 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Felipe Jonatan | D | 12 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Thiago Santos | M | 8 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renato Marques | F | 11 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Tiago Cóser | D | 20 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wallisson Luiz | M | 30 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Botafogo vs Coritiba?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Botafogo to win against Coritiba.
- What score did Fipster predict for Botafogo vs Coritiba?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Botafogo 3–1 Coritiba.
- What were the win probabilities for Botafogo vs Coritiba?
- Fipster's model gave Botafogo a 95% chance of winning, Coritiba a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.