Botafogo vs Atletico-MG
Botafogo edges Atletico-MG in tight tussle
Edenílson's early strike secures a slender victory for the home side.
Botafogo claimed a narrow 1-0 win over Atletico-MG thanks to Edenílson's early goal in the 19th minute. The match was a closely contested affair with no further goals to break the deadlock. Fipster's prediction of a home win was spot on, albeit the exact scoreline differed.
Outcome probability
Botafogo and Atletico-MG face off in a regular season match where the home side is tipped to claim a narrow 2-1 victory. With both teams showing competitive form, this fixture promises a closely fought contest.
Match factors
Danilo Santos' midfield dominance
Danilo's high goal tally and consistent minutes give Botafogo a midfield scoring edge
Alex Telles' dual threat
Alex Telles contributes significantly in goals and assists, exceeding league defender averages
Álvaro Montoro's creative link
Montoro's assist record and connection with Danilo Santos enhance Botafogo's attacking fluidity
The context
Atletico-MG currently sit 7th in the league with 50 points, while Botafogo are 11th with 39 points. The head-to-head record is fairly balanced, with Atletico-MG winning 9 of their 20 meetings and Botafogo 8, alongside 3 draws. Atletico-MG's superior goal difference of +14 compared to Botafogo's -8 suggests a stronger overall season performance.
Key insights
Danilo Santos
Botafogo
Danilo's 10 goals and consistent minutes give Botafogo a midfield scoring edge this season.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 25 apps, 0.4 avg per game
Alex Telles
Botafogo
Alex Telles contributes significantly in goals and assists, exceeding league defender averages.
Serie A 26/274 goals and 4 assists in 29 apps
Álvaro Montoro
Botafogo
Montoro's 5 assists and strong connection with Danilo Santos enhance Botafogo's attacking fluidity.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 28 apps, 0.18 avg per game
Analysis
Botafogo's midfield dynamo Danilo Santos leads the charge with 10 goals this season, providing a significant attacking edge. Defender Alex Telles contributes both goals and assists, making him a dual threat and a key figure in Botafogo's setup. Álvaro Montoro's creativity and assist tally further enhance their attacking fluidity. Despite Atletico-MG's better league standing and goal difference, Botafogo's home form and key player contributions make them favourites to take the win.
Key facts
- 1.Botafogo rank 11th with 39 points from 33 games (W10 D9 L14).
- 2.Atletico-MG rank 7th with 50 points from 32 games (W14 D8 L10).
- 3.Atletico-MG have a +14 goal difference; Botafogo have -8.
- 4.In 20 meetings, Botafogo have won 8, Atletico-MG 9, with 3 draws.
- 5.Danilo Santos is Botafogo's top scorer with 10 goals this season.
- 6.Alex Telles has contributed 4 goals and 4 assists this season for Botafogo.
- 7.Álvaro Montoro leads Botafogo with 5 assists this season.
Prediction
The prediction sees Botafogo taking a 1-0 lead by halftime and ultimately winning 2-1. The model suggests a total of four cards in the match, indicating a competitive but controlled encounter. Botafogo's ability to capitalise on home advantage and their standout performers should be enough to secure the three points.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Botafogo
Away — Atletico-MG
No standout top scorers flagged for Atletico-MG
The verdict
In what promises to be a tight and entertaining match, Botafogo's home advantage and key player performances are expected to tip the scales in their favour. Atletico-MG will push hard, but the home side's edge in midfield and creativity should see them through to a 2-1 victory.
Prediction generated 30 Oct 2026, 00:34 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Medina
Yellow Card
Edenílson
Assist: Vitinho
Pérez
Yellow Card
Edenílson
Danilo
Paulinho
Pérez
Marçal
Yellow Card
Tiquinho Soares
Medina
Pascini
Yellow Card
Mamady Cisse
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | +42 | 76 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | +5 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | -11 | 42 |
Match Statistics
Botafogo
3-5-2Starting XI
- 2VitinhoM
- 5N. FerraresiD
- 6C. MedinaM
- 9Tiquinho SoaresF
- 12Gabriel BatistaG
- 21MarçalD
- 29PaulinhoM
- 34G. JustinoD
- 75HuguinhoM
- 88EdenílsonM
- 90DaniloF
Substitutes
- 4M. PonteD
- 10Álvaro MontoroM
- 11Matheus MartinsF
- 13Alex TellesD
- 17WarlesonG
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 22H. ZiyechM
- 25AllanM
- 33L. MonzónD
- 59Kauan ToledoM
- 77L. VillalbaF
- 91Domingos AndradeM
Atletico-MG
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3Léo DuarteD
- 5AlexsanderM
- 10Gustavo ScarpaM
- 22EversonG
- 23A. PreciadoD
- 25T. PérezM
- 29CauaF
- 36K. PasciniD
- 39Mamady CisseM
- 40VitãoD
- 92DuduM
Substitutes
- 1Gabriel DelfimG
- 14Vitor HugoD
- 31RobertG
- 34S. BarrosD
- 38ÍndioM
- 42WandersonD
- 48GutteM
- 53Pedro LemosD
- 58Soares EricM
- 59Joao SantosF
Botafogo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nahuel Ferraresi | D | 91 | 7.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Gabriel Batista | G | 91 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitinho | M | 91 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Gabriel Justino | D | 91 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marçal(C) | D | 91 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Edenilson | M | 55 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Paulinho | M | 64 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Cristian Medina | M | 76 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Huguinho | M | 91 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 4/5 |
| Tiquinho Soares | F | 76 | 6.3 | — | — | 4 | — | — | 0/3 |
| Danilo Pereira | F | 55 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Álvaro Montoro | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Monzón | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateo Ponte | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Villalba | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hakim Ziyech | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Allan | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Warleson | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Martins | F | 36 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Alex Telles | D | 36 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Kauan Toledo | M | 27 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Arthur Cabral | F | 15 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Domingos Andrade | M | 15 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Atletico-MG
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Scarpa | M | 91 | 8.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | — |
| Léo Duarte | D | 91 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexsander | M | 91 | 7.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Dudu | M | 91 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Vitão | D | 89 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomás Pérez | M | 68 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Mamady Cissé | M | 85 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Kauã Pascini | D | 91 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Everson(C) | G | 91 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ángelo Preciado | D | 91 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Cauã Campos Soares | F | 91 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Vitor Hugo | D | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Gabriel Castro Santos | F | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eric de Jesus Soares | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wanderson Vaz | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Tocantins | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Índio | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robert Alves | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samuel Lima Barros | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Delfim | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gutte | M | 23 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Botafogo to win against Atletico-MG.
- What score did Fipster predict for Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Botafogo 2–1 Atletico-MG.
- What were the win probabilities for Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
- Fipster's model gave Botafogo a 81% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 9% chance, and a 10% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 81% confidence — a high-confidence call.