Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
Sweden holds on in five-goal thriller
Gyökeres' double penalties set the tone before Bosnia's fightback fell short.
Sweden raced ahead with an early goal from D. Svensson and two penalties converted by V. Gyökeres, giving them a strong lead by halftime. Bosnia & Herzegovina responded after the break with goals from A. Gigović and S. Kolašinac, but it wasn't enough to overhaul the hosts. The 3-2 result matched Fipster's low-confidence prediction, proving the call was spot on despite the tight finish.
Outcome probability
Sweden and Bosnia & Herzegovina face off in a League B fixture that promises goals and drama. Both teams have shown solid form in the competition so far, setting the stage for a competitive encounter.
Match factors
Gyökeres' prolific scoring form
Gyökeres leads Sweden with 4 goals in 4 games, posing a major threat to Bosnia's defense
Sweden's strong home scoring streak
Sweden averages 2.5 goals at home with a 4-game scoring streak, favoring their attacking output
Bajraktarević's creative influence for Bosnia
Bajraktarević has 2 assists in 3 games, driving Bosnia's attack especially away from home
Lindelöf's dual role in defense and attack
Lindelöf combines solid defense with 1 assist and high passing accuracy, aiding Sweden's buildup
Bosnia's defensive resilience with key defenders
Defenders Muharemović and Katić show strong tackling and passing, crucial against Sweden's attack
The context
In the league phase, Sweden remain unbeaten with three wins and a draw, scoring seven goals and conceding three. Bosnia & Herzegovina have also impressed with two wins and two draws, netting six and conceding three. Their only previous meeting ended in a 1-1 draw, highlighting the competitive nature of this fixture.
Key insights
Viktor Gyökeres
Sweden
Gyökeres leads Sweden with 4 goals in 4 games, posing a major threat to Bosnia's defence.
UEFA Nations League 26/274 goals in 4 games
Esmir Bajraktarević
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Bajraktarević has 2 assists in 3 games, driving Bosnia's attack especially away from home.
UEFA Nations League 26/272 assists in 3 games
Victor Nilsson Lindelöf
Sweden
Lindelöf combines solid defence with 1 assist and high passing accuracy, aiding Sweden's buildup.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 assist in 4 games, 87% pass accuracy
- T
Tarik Muharemović
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Muharemović shows strong tackling and passing, crucial against Sweden's attack.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal recently, high passing accuracy (87%)
Analysis
Sweden's attacking threat is spearheaded by Viktor Gyökeres, who boasts four goals in four games and is a key figure in their forward line. Alexander Isak also adds firepower, having scored in his last home appearance. Bosnia's creative spark comes from Esmir Bajraktarević, who leads with two assists in three games, while defenders like Tarik Muharemović provide resilience at the back. Sweden's Victor Nilsson Lindelöf contributes both defensively and offensively, with a notable assist and high passing accuracy. The match is expected to be a close contest, with Sweden's home scoring streak giving them a slight edge.
Key facts
- 1.Sweden are unbeaten in League B with 3 wins and 1 draw, scoring 7 and conceding 3 goals.
- 2.Bosnia & Herzegovina have 2 wins and 2 draws in League B, scoring 6 and conceding 3.
- 3.The only previous meeting between these teams ended in a 1-1 draw.
- 4.Sweden's Viktor Gyökeres has scored 4 goals in 4 games, leading their attack.
- 5.Bosnia's Esmir Bajraktarević has provided 2 assists in 3 games, key to their creativity.
- 6.Victor Nilsson Lindelöf combines defensive solidity with attacking support for Sweden.
- 7.Home win outcomes have the highest probability at approximately 47%, with 3-2 the most likely scoreline.
Prediction
The prediction favours a home win for Sweden with a 3-2 scoreline. This outcome has the highest aggregate probability, although the confidence is low due to limited match history and missing standings data. Expect a thrilling encounter with both sides finding the net multiple times.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Sweden
Away — Bosnia & Herzegovina
The verdict
All signs point to an entertaining match with Sweden narrowly coming out on top. Fans should brace themselves for a five-goal thriller where attacking prowess will be on full display from both teams.
Prediction generated 7 Oct 2026, 06:07 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Svensson
Assist: Elanga
Gyökeres
Penalty
Goal cancelled
Tabaković
Gyökeres
Penalty
Gigović
Assist: Mahmić
Nanasi
Elanga
Kolašinac
Assist: Alajbegović
Bajraktarevic
Radeljić
Bašić
Lagerbielke
Yellow Card
Isak
Ayari
Svensson
Match Statistics
Sweden
4-4-2Starting XI
- 2G. LagerbielkeD
- 3V. LindelöfD
- 5G. GudmundssonD
- 8D. SvenssonM
- 9A. IsakF
- 11A. ElangaF
- 12V. JohanssonG
- 17V. GyökeresF
- 18Y. AyariM
- 19S. NanasiM
- 20H. LarssonM
Substitutes
- 1J. Widell ZetterströmG
- 4E. SmithM
- 6F. BeijmoM
- 7E. StroudM
- 10B. NygrenF
- 13A. BernhardssonF
- 14H. EkdalD
- 15G. AntwiM
- 16J. KarlströmM
- 21D. KulusevskiF
- 22A. NjieF
- 23N. TörnqvistG
Bosnia & Herzegovina
3-5-2Starting XI
- 5S. KolašinacD
- 7A. DedićD
- 8A. GigovićM
- 10E. DemirovićF
- 11E. BajraktarevicF
- 13I. BašićM
- 18N. KatićD
- 19Kerim-Sam AlajbegovićF
- 21S. RadeljićD
- 22M. ZlomislićG
- 23H. TabakovićF
Substitutes
- 1M. JurkasG
- 2N. MujakićD
- 3A. MalicM
- 4Z. SmajlovićD
- 6B. TahirovićM
- 9S. BaždarF
- 12S. HamzićG
- 14I. ŠunjićM
- 15A. MemićF
- 16Ermin MahmićM
- 17D. BurnićD
- 20M. DeketF
Sweden
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Svensson | M | 90 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| V. Gyökeres | F | 90 | 7.5 | 2 | — | 4 | 3 | — | — |
| V. Johansson | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Elanga | F | 61 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| G. Lagerbielke | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| V. Lindelöf | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Nygren | F | 29 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| G. Gudmundsson | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Larsson | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Isak | F | 81 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Y. Ayari | M | 91 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| S. Nanasi | M | 61 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| D. Kulusevski | F | 29 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| E. Stroud | M | 9 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Smith | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Beijmo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bernhardsson | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Ekdal | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Widell Zetterström | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Karlström | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Törnqvist | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Njie | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Antwi | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Bosnia & Herzegovina
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Gigović | M | 90 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Kerim-Sam Alajbegović | F | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3/7 |
| S. Kolašinac | D | 90 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| E. Bajraktarevic | F | 67 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 4 | — |
| Ermin Mahmić | M | 51 | 6.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 4 | 1/1 |
| I. Bašić | M | 67 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| A. Dedić | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| M. Zlomislić | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Tabaković | F | 39 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| N. Katić | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Radeljić | D | 67 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| E. Demirović | F | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| B. Tahirović | M | 23 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| A. Memić | F | 23 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Malic | M | 23 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Deket | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Šunjić | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Burnić | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Mujakić | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Baždar | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Hamzić | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Z. Smajlović | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Jurkas | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Sweden to win against Bosnia & Herzegovina.
- What score did Fipster predict for Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Sweden 3–2 Bosnia & Herzegovina.
- What were the win probabilities for Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina?
- Fipster's model gave Sweden a 35% chance of winning, Bosnia & Herzegovina a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.