Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
Bremen snatch late draw at Dortmund
A frantic final ten minutes saw Werder Bremen claw back twice to deny Borussia Dortmund victory.
Borussia Dortmund looked set for a comfortable win with goals from D. Svensson and N. Schlotterbeck in the 80th and 85th minutes. However, Werder Bremen staged a dramatic comeback, with L. Reis and N. Füllkrug scoring in the 88th and 90+2' minutes to secure a 2-2 draw. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a Dortmund 4-0 win, turning what seemed a straightforward home victory into a shared spoils thriller.
Outcome probability
As the new season kicks off, Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen prepare to face off in what promises to be a one-sided affair. Dortmund, bolstered by fresh signings, look poised to assert their dominance early on.
Key facts
- 1.Borussia Dortmund have signed J. Veerman and Kouakou Joane Gadou this summer.
- 2.Werder Bremen have added A. Schlager on a free transfer and loaned Y. Regeer and E. Dinkçi.
- 3.Dortmund have a notable points-per-game advantage over Bremen (2.15 vs 0.94).
- 4.Dortmund's goal difference this season is significantly better than Bremen's, with 59 goals more.
- 5.The predicted halftime score is 2-0 in favour of Dortmund.
- 6.The fulltime predicted score is 4-0 to Dortmund.
- 7.The match is expected to see around four total cards shown.
The context
Borussia Dortmund have strengthened their squad with the arrivals of J. Veerman and Kouakou Joane Gadou, while parting ways with J. Brandt and K. Adeyemi. Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have welcomed A. Schlager on a free transfer and secured Y. Regeer and E. Dinkçi on loan, but have seen several departures including R. Schmid and M. Backhaus. These changes set the stage for a clash between a well-reinforced Dortmund and a Bremen side still adjusting to their summer business.
Analysis
The statistical outlook heavily favours Dortmund, who hold a significant advantage in points per game and goal difference over Bremen. The predicted halftime score of 2-0 suggests Dortmund will establish control early, with the fulltime forecast of 4-0 reflecting their expected dominance. The match is also anticipated to feature a moderate disciplinary count, with around four cards likely to be shown.
Prediction
Expect Borussia Dortmund to take the lead by halftime and continue their momentum to secure a comprehensive 4-0 victory. Their superior squad depth and tactical setup should leave Werder Bremen struggling to respond effectively.
The verdict
This fixture looks set to underline Borussia Dortmund's strength as they start the season with a statement win. Werder Bremen will need to regroup quickly after a tough opening match if they hope to climb the table.
Prediction generated 19 Sep 2026, 18:23 UTC · Fipster Model v1.158
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Pieper
Nwaneri
Arthur
Regeer
Bellingham
Sabitzer
Svensson
Assist: Fábio Silva
Dinkçi
Chuky San José
Schlotterbeck
Assist: Veerman
Reis
Assist: Wójcik
Veerman
Yellow Card
Füllkrug
Assist: Grüll
Nmecha
Yellow Card
Stalmach
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 13 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 |  Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +12 | 11 |
| 6 |  FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 |  Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
Match Statistics
Borussia Dortmund
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1G. KobelG
- 3W. AntonD
- 4N. SchlotterbeckD
- 7J. BellinghamM
- 8F. NmechaM
- 9S. GuirassyF
- 14M. BeierM
- 18E. NwaneriM
- 20M. SabitzerM
- 22Kouakou Joane GadouD
- 24D. SvenssonM
Substitutes
- 5R. BensebaïniD
- 19K. KaretsasM
- 21Fábio SilvaF
- 25J. VeermanM
- 33A. MeyerG
- 36Kauã PratesD
- 40S. InacioF
- 41M. AlbertF
- 49L. ReggianiD
Werder Bremen
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1K. HeinG
- 2O. DemanD
- 5A. PieperD
- 10N. FüllkrugF
- 13ArthurD
- 15L. ReisM
- 17M. GrüllM
- 18E. DinkçiM
- 20Chuky San JoséM
- 32M. FriedlD
- 44Y. RegeerM
Substitutes
- 3O. WójcikD
- 4N. StarkD
- 8M. WeiserD
- 23Dariusz StalmachM
- 26C. IttenF
- 30A. SchlagerG
- 33Mick SchmetgensD
- 38P. ErevbenagieF
Borussia Dortmund
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Schlotterbeck | D | 90 | 8.6 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2/4 |
| D. Svensson | M | 90 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/4 |
| Kouakou Joane Gadou | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| F. Nmecha | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| W. Anton | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| J. Veerman | M | 18 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| E. Nwaneri | M | 63 | 6.8 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Fábio Silva | F | 27 | 6.8 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| M. Beier | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 4 | — |
| J. Bellingham | M | 72 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| M. Sabitzer | M | 72 | 6.4 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | — |
| S. Guirassy | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| K. Karetsas | M | 18 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| G. Kobel | G | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Reggiani | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Bensebaïni | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Meyer | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Inacio | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Albert | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauã Prates | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Werder Bremen
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Reis | M | 90 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| K. Hein | G | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| N. Füllkrug | F | 90 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| M. Grüll | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| O. Wójcik | D | 71 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| M. Friedl | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Erevbenagie | F | 9 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| M. Weiser | D | 25 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Arthur | D | 65 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Mick Schmetgens | D | 9 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| A. Pieper | D | 19 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Regeer | M | 65 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dariusz Stalmach | M | 25 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Chuky San José | M | 81 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Dinkçi | M | 81 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| O. Deman | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| C. Itten | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Schlager | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Stark | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Borussia Dortmund to win against Werder Bremen.
- What score did Fipster predict for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Borussia Dortmund 4–0 Werder Bremen.
- What were the win probabilities for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
- Fipster's model gave Borussia Dortmund a 95% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.