Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal
Dortmund edge Villarreal in five-goal thriller
Guirassy's late brace and penalty seal a narrow win for Dortmund.
Borussia Dortmund secured a 3-2 victory over Villarreal in a pulsating UEFA Champions League clash. The match swung with an own goal from Renato Veiga giving Dortmund the lead early in the second half, before S. Mouriño levelled for Villarreal. However, S. Guirassy proved decisive, scoring a normal goal and a penalty in the final 15 minutes, with a late own goal from Villarreal adding gloss to the scoreline. Fipster's medium-confidence prediction for a Dortmund win was on the money, though the exact scoreline was more dramatic than forecast.
Outcome probability
Borussia Dortmund and Villarreal face off in what promises to be a competitive group stage match. Both teams have shown balanced head-to-head form, making this a fixture to watch closely.
Match factors
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both Borussia Dortmund and Villarreal have no confirmed absences, ensuring full squad availability.
Limited player-level data restricts individual impact predictions
Absence of top scorers and assisters data for both teams limits ability to identify key contributors.
Uncertain form due to lack of recent match data
No recent fixtures or form data available for either team, making momentum assessment impossible.
The context
This group stage encounter sees Borussia Dortmund and Villarreal meeting for the fourth time, with their previous three matches evenly split: one win each and a draw. The average goals per match stand at a healthy 3.3, indicating an open and attacking style from both sides. Neither team has any confirmed injuries, so full squads are available for selection.
Key facts
- 1.Borussia Dortmund and Villarreal have met 3 times previously: 1 win each and 1 draw.
- 2.Their head-to-head matches average 3.3 goals per game.
- 3.The most common draw scoreline between them is 1-1.
- 4.No confirmed injuries for either team, so full squads are available.
- 5.No recent form data available, making momentum assessment difficult.
- 6.Predicted halftime score is 1-1, with a fulltime score of 2-1 in favour of Dortmund.
- 7.A total of 3 cards is expected in the match.
Analysis
The head-to-head record suggests a finely balanced contest, with both teams having tasted victory once and sharing a draw. The most common draw scoreline has been 1-1, which aligns with the prediction of a tight first half. Limited recent form data makes it tricky to gauge momentum, but the absence of injuries means both sides can field their best line-ups. Expect Dortmund to leverage their home advantage to edge this one.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Borussia Dortmund
Away — Villarreal
Prediction
We anticipate a closely fought match with Borussia Dortmund clinching a 2-1 win. The halftime score is predicted to be 1-1, reflecting the balanced nature of the fixture. A total of three cards is expected, suggesting a competitive but fair encounter.
The verdict
In summary, this group stage match should provide plenty of entertainment with goals from both sides. Dortmund’s slight edge at home and the balanced head-to-head record point to a narrow victory for the hosts. Fans can look forward to a spirited contest with a few cards to keep things lively.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Karetsas
Anton
Yellow Card
Navarro
Yellow Card
Cardona
Yellow Card
Cardona
Veiga (OG)
Oluwaseyi
Saliba
Mouriño
Assist: Mikautadze
Buchanan
Nmecha
Sabitzer
Guirassy
Assist: Fábio Silva
Nwaneri
Beier
Navarro
Mouriño
Yellow Card
Guirassy
Penalty
Guirassy (OG)
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 |  Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Borussia Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 34 |  Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 35 |  Club Brugge KV | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Match Statistics
Borussia Dortmund
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1G. KobelG
- 3W. AntonD
- 8F. NmechaM
- 9S. GuirassyF
- 14M. BeierM
- 19K. KaretsasM
- 20M. SabitzerM
- 22Kouakou Joane GadouD
- 24D. SvenssonD
- 25J. VeermanM
- 26J. RyersonM
Substitutes
- 7J. BellinghamM
- 17C. ChukwuemekaM
- 18E. NwaneriM
- 21Fábio SilvaF
- 30P. DrewesG
- 33A. MeyerG
- 36Kauã PratesD
- 40S. InacioF
- 41M. AlbertF
- 49L. ReggianiD
Villarreal
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 6Pau NavarroD
- 9G. MikautadzeF
- 12Renato VeigaD
- 14Santi ComesañaM
- 15S. MouriñoD
- 17T. BuchananM
- 18P. GueyeM
- 21T. OluwaseyiM
- 23Sergi CardonaD
- 24N. SalibaM
- 25P. GulácsiG
Substitutes
- 1Luíz JúniorG
- 2Logan CostaD
- 3A. FreemanD
- 5A. DiattaM
- 7Gerard MorenoF
- 10Alberto MoleiroM
- 11Ilias AkhomachF
- 13Rubén GómezG
- 16C. MaciaM
- 19N. PépéF
- 22Ayoze PérezF
Borussia Dortmund
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Guirassy | F | 90 | 7.4 | 2 | — | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0/1 |
| G. Kobel | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Sabitzer | M | 75 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 0/2 |
| Fábio Silva | F | 15 | 7.1 | — | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1/3 |
| E. Nwaneri | M | 55 | 6.9 | — | — | 6 | — | — | 3/4 |
| Kouakou Joane Gadou | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Veerman | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| W. Anton | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Bellingham | M | 15 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Kauã Prates | D | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| F. Nmecha | M | 75 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Ryerson | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/6 |
| D. Svensson | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Beier | M | 82 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| C. Chukwuemeka | M | 8 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Karetsas | M | 27 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Inacio | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Reggiani | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Drewes | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Meyer | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Albert | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Villarreal
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Mouriño | D | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| T. Buchanan | M | 75 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2/3 |
| G. Mikautadze | F | 90 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 3 | 2/3 |
| A. Freeman | D | 44 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| N. Pépé | F | 31 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| P. Gulácsi | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Santi Comesaña | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Gerard Moreno | F | 7 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Gueye | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Pau Navarro | D | 83 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Sergi Cardona | D | 46 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Saliba | M | 59 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Oluwaseyi | M | 59 | 5.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| A. Diatta | M | 15 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Alberto Moleiro | M | 31 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Renato Veiga | D | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| C. Macia | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ayoze Pérez | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Logan Costa | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luíz Júnior | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ilias Akhomach | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rubén Gómez | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Borussia Dortmund to win against Villarreal.
- What score did Fipster predict for Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Borussia Dortmund 2–1 Villarreal.
- What were the win probabilities for Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal?
- Fipster's model gave Borussia Dortmund a 46% chance of winning, Villarreal a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 46% confidence — a medium-confidence call.