Bolton vs Stoke City
Stoke City snatch victory at Bolton
Late drama couldn't save Bolton from a Stoke comeback.
Stoke City edged Bolton 2-1 in a tight Championship clash, with L. Cissé breaking the deadlock in stoppage time before B. Wilmot doubled the lead after the break. Bolton's T. Bair pulled one back in the dying moments, but it was too little too late. The result defied Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a Bolton win, turning the fixture on its head.
Outcome probability
Bolton and Stoke City face off in the ninth round of the regular season, with Bolton looking to improve their standing against a higher-ranked Stoke side. Both teams have shown contrasting form, setting the stage for an intriguing encounter.
Match factors
Bolton's defensive injury woes
Bolton missing key defender C. Forino-Joseph (groin injury) weakens defensive stability
Stoke's attacking midfield strength
Ethan Galbraith leads Stoke with 3 goals and strong passing, boosting their attack
Stoke's consistent scoring streak
Stoke has scored in last 5 matches, showing strong offensive momentum
Bolton's midfield passing dominance
J. Sheehan's high passing volume and accuracy could control midfield against Stoke
The context
Bolton currently sit 21st in the league with 7 points from 7 games, struggling to find consistent form. Stoke City, on the other hand, are placed 7th with 13 points from 8 matches, boasting a better goal difference and points-per-game average. This match offers Bolton a chance to close the gap against a side enjoying better recent results.
Key insights
Ethan Galbraith
Stoke City
Leads Stoke with 3 goals and strong passing, boosting their attacking threat.
Championship 26/273 goals in 7 appearances, 86% passing accuracy, 42.6 passes/game
- J
J. Sheehan
Bolton
Controls midfield tempo with exceptional passing accuracy and volume, key to Bolton's strategy.
Championship 26/2785% passing accuracy, 52 passes per game, leads Bolton in passing
- C
C. Forino-Joseph
Bolton
His absence due to a groin injury weakens Bolton's defensive stability.
Analysis
Stoke City have demonstrated stronger offensive momentum, scoring in their last five matches, led by midfielder Ethan Galbraith who has netted 3 goals this season. Bolton's midfield maestro J. Sheehan is expected to control the tempo with his impressive passing accuracy and volume, despite Bolton missing key defender C. Forino-Joseph due to injury. Defensively, Bolton's M. Conway will be crucial in containing Stoke's threats. The predicted 2-1 scoreline reflects a tightly contested match with Bolton edging it through home advantage and midfield dominance.
Key facts
- 1.Bolton rank 21st with 7 points from 7 games (W2 D1 L4).
- 2.Stoke City rank 7th with 13 points from 8 games (W4 D1 L3).
- 3.Stoke City have a better goal difference (+1) compared to Bolton (-5).
- 4.Stoke City average 1.63 points per game versus Bolton's 1.00.
- 5.Ethan Galbraith is Stoke's top scorer with 3 goals in 7 appearances.
- 6.J. Sheehan leads Bolton in passing with 85% accuracy and 52 passes per game.
- 7.Bolton are missing key defender C. Forino-Joseph due to a groin injury.
Prediction
The forecast sees Bolton taking an early lead by halftime at 1-0, maintaining their advantage to finish 2-1. The match is expected to be competitive with around four cards shown, reflecting the intensity on the pitch. Bolton's ability to capitalise on home conditions and Stoke's slight defensive vulnerabilities could be decisive.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Bolton
No standout top scorers flagged for Bolton
Away — Stoke City
The verdict
In summary, Bolton are poised to claim a narrow victory over Stoke City, leveraging their midfield control and home advantage. Stoke's attacking threats will keep the game lively, but Bolton's resilience and tactical edge should see them through to a 2-1 win.
Prediction generated 20 Sep 2026, 14:27 UTC · Fipster Model v1.160
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Talovierov
Red Card
McGlynn
Yellow Card
Cissé
Assist: Galbraith
Devenny
Erhahon
Dong
Gale
Wilmot
Assist: McGlynn
Ruben Rodrigues
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré
McGlynn
Cissé
Conway
Yellow Card
Davies
Bair
Assist: Larrazabal
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 20 |
| 3 |  West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 16 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 5 |  Wolves | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 16 |  Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +9 | 10 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 |  Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
Match Statistics
Bolton
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 6B. DaviesD
- 7K. DongM
- 8J. SheehanM
- 10S. DalbyF
- 11T. GaleM
- 18E. ToalD
- 20Ruben RodriguesM
- 21E. ErhahonM
- 22Gaizka LarrazabalD
- 25M. ConwayD
- 31G. BazunuG
Substitutes
- 1J. BonhamG
- 4X. SimonsM
- 5L. BruntD
- 9T. BairF
- 14A. FamewoD
- 16S. Iling-JuniorF
- 17A. ItoM
- 26J. NelsonF
- 39R. HardieF
Stoke City
3-4-3Starting XI
- 1V. JohanssonG
- 2B. JohnsonM
- 5L. GrahamD
- 7J. McGlynnF
- 8E. GalbraithM
- 11L. CisséF
- 13J. DevennyF
- 16B. WilmotD
- 17E. BocatM
- 27El Hadji Djibril SoumaréM
- 40M. TalovierovD
Substitutes
- 4B. PearsonM
- 9R. BoženíkF
- 10Bae Jun-HoM
- 15G. HirstF
- 18B. LawalD
- 21L. BombinoD
- 22J. TchamadeuD
- 24J. GriffithsG
- 42M. ManhoefF
Bolton
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Sheehan | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 3 | — | 2 | — |
| Ruben Rodrigues | M | 63 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 2/2 |
| E. Erhahon | M | 46 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Toal | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Nelson | F | 34 | 6.8 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| B. Davies | D | 82 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Conway | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 3/3 |
| S. Iling-Junior | F | 34 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| R. Hardie | F | 27 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| G. Bazunu | G | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Bair | F | 8 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Ito | M | 44 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | — |
| Gaizka Larrazabal | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 4 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| T. Gale | M | 56 | 6.1 | — | — | 4 | — | — | 0/2 |
| S. Dalby | F | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 4 | — | — | — |
| K. Dong | M | 56 | 5.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/3 |
| J. Bonham | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Famewo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| X. Simons | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Brunt | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Stoke City
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Wilmot | D | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| E. Galbraith | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| L. Cissé | F | 69 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| L. Graham | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. McGlynn | F | 69 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 4 | — |
| J. Tchamadeu | D | 21 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Bombino | D | 44 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| B. Lawal | D | 21 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| V. Johansson | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| El Hadji Djibril Soumaré | M | 69 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| B. Johnson | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| E. Bocat | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Hirst | F | 21 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Devenny | F | 46 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Talovierov | D | 20 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Boženík | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Pearson | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Griffiths | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Manhoef | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bae Jun-Ho | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Bolton vs Stoke City?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Bolton to win against Stoke City.
- What score did Fipster predict for Bolton vs Stoke City?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Bolton 2–1 Stoke City.
- What were the win probabilities for Bolton vs Stoke City?
- Fipster's model gave Bolton a 54% chance of winning, Stoke City a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 54% confidence — a medium-confidence call.