Bolton vs Bristol City
Bristol City edge Bolton in five-goal thriller
A late strike from S. Twine seals a narrow win for the visitors.
Bristol City secured a hard-fought 3-2 victory over Bolton in the Championship, with D. Ballard opening the scoring early before J. Sheehan and S. Dalby put Bolton ahead. However, S. Bell's goal brought Bristol City back on level terms, and S. Twine's stoppage-time winner clinched the win. Fipster's low-confidence prediction of an away win was on the money, though the exact scoreline proved a bit more dramatic.
Outcome probability
Bolton and Bristol City, both sitting on 14 points in the league, face off in what promises to be a closely fought encounter. With neither side far ahead in the standings, expect a tactical battle with moments of attacking flair.
Match factors
Bolton's attacking edge through Dalby
Samuel Dalby leads Bolton with 4 goals and strong recent away scoring form, boosting their goal threat
Larrazabal's creative influence
Gaizka Larrazabal has 3 assists in last 5 games, key to Bolton's chance creation and set-piece delivery
Bristol City's midfield passing control
Jason Knight's 42 passes per game and high minutes suggest midfield control, aiding Bristol City's attack
Bristol City's defensive absences
Bristol City missing key defenders Dickie and Eile, weakening defensive stability against Bolton's attack
Bolton's recent scoring consistency
Bolton scored in 4 of last 5 home games, showing positive scoring momentum despite defensive issues
The context
This match is part of the regular season's 13th round, where both teams have shown mixed form. Bolton have scored in four of their last five home games, while Bristol City have been steady but face defensive absences that could influence the outcome.
Key insights
Samuel Dalby
Bolton
Dalby leads Bolton with 4 goals and has a strong away scoring rate, making him a key threat in this match.
Championship 26/274 goals in 11 appearances, 0.36 goals/game
Gaizka Larrazabal
Bolton
Larrazabal’s 3 assists in the last 5 games highlight his creative importance, especially in set-piece situations.
Championship 26/273 assists in last 5 games, 0.6 assists/game
- J
Jason Knight
Bristol City
Knight’s high passing volume (42 passes/game) suggests he will be crucial in controlling the midfield and setting up attacks.
Championship 26/2742 passes per game
Analysis
Bristol City hold a slight statistical edge with a predicted 2-1 win, despite the first half likely ending goalless. Bolton's Samuel Dalby is a key attacking threat with four goals this season and strong away form, while Gaizka Larrazabal's creativity has been vital for Bolton's chance creation. Bristol City's midfield, led by Jason Knight with an impressive 42 passes per game, could control the tempo. However, defensive absences for Bristol City may leave gaps that Bolton will look to exploit.
Key facts
- 1.Bolton and Bristol City both have 14 points in the league, ranked 16th and 15th respectively.
- 2.Samuel Dalby is Bolton's top scorer with 4 goals in 11 appearances, showing strong away form.
- 3.Gaizka Larrazabal has provided 3 assists in the last 5 games, leading Bolton's creative efforts.
- 4.Jason Knight averages 42 passes per game, indicating Bristol City's midfield control.
- 5.Bolton have scored in 4 of their last 5 home matches, showing decent attacking momentum.
- 6.Bristol City are missing key defenders Dickie and Eile, impacting their defensive stability.
- 7.The most probable full-time scoreline is a 2-1 win for Bristol City.
- 8.A goalless first half is the most likely scenario before the away side pulls ahead.
Prediction
The forecast is for a tight first half with no goals, followed by Bristol City pulling ahead to secure a 2-1 victory. The match is expected to feature four cards, reflecting a competitive and physical contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Bolton
Away — Bristol City
No standout top scorers flagged for Bristol City
The verdict
While the prediction leans towards Bristol City, the close league positions and recent form suggest this will be a hard-fought game. Fans should brace for a tactical tussle with moments of quality from key players on both sides.
Prediction generated 24 Oct 2026, 15:58 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Williams
Yellow Card
Ballard
Assist: Knight
Sheehan
Assist: Gale
Sheehan
Yellow Card
De Keersmaecker
Cardines
Dalby
Assist: Ito
Gale
Ito
Ballard
Forino-Joseph
Tolaj
Williams
Bell
Assist: Pring
Iling-Junior
Davies
Twine
Assist: Wallace
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +10 | 25 |
| 14 |  Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 15 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
Match Statistics
Bolton
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1J. BonhamG
- 3C. Forino-JosephD
- 4X. SimonsM
- 6B. DaviesD
- 8J. SheehanM
- 10S. DalbyF
- 11T. GaleM
- 16S. Iling-JuniorM
- 17A. ItoM
- 22Gaizka LarrazabalD
- 25M. ConwayD
Substitutes
- 5L. BruntD
- 7K. DongF
- 9T. BairF
- 12D. WatsonM
- 14A. FamewoD
- 20Ruben RodriguesF
- 23D. HarringtonG
- 27Luca StephensonM
Bristol City
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2L. EissatD
- 3C. PringD
- 6B. De KeersmaeckerM
- 8J. WilliamsM
- 9L. TolajF
- 12J. KnightM
- 15L. McNallyD
- 19G. TannerD
- 21Rio CardinesM
- 23D. BallardM
- 40B. CollinsG
Substitutes
- 1S. TickleG
- 4A. RandellM
- 5R. AtkinsonD
- 7Y. HirakawaM
- 10S. TwineM
- 11S. BellF
- 14T. HorvatM
- 17J. WallaceM
- 20S. GreenwoodM
Bolton
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Sheehan | M | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| S. Dalby | F | 90 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| A. Ito | M | 65 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0/1 |
| T. Gale | M | 65 | 6.8 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Ruben Rodrigues | F | 25 | 6.8 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | — |
| J. Bonham | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Dong | F | 25 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| B. Davies | D | 88 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| X. Simons | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| S. Iling-Junior | M | 88 | 6.3 | — | — | 4 | — | 1 | 3/6 |
| C. Forino-Joseph | D | 78 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gaizka Larrazabal | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 3 | — | 2 | 2/6 |
| L. Brunt | D | 12 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Famewo | D | 2 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Conway | D | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Luca Stephenson | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Watson | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Harrington | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Bair | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Bristol City
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bell | F | 12 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| D. Ballard | M | 67 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| J. Knight | M | 90 | 7.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| C. Pring | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| S. Twine | M | 23 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| B. Collins | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rio Cardines | M | 55 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| L. McNally | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| J. Williams | M | 78 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. Wallace | M | 35 | 6.4 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Y. Hirakawa | M | 35 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| G. Tanner | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Eissat | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| L. Tolaj | F | 78 | 6.1 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| A. Randell | M | 12 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. De Keersmaecker | M | 55 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Horvat | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Atkinson | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Greenwood | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Tickle | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Bolton vs Bristol City?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Bristol City to win against Bolton.
- What score did Fipster predict for Bolton vs Bristol City?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Bolton 1–2 Bristol City.
- What were the win probabilities for Bolton vs Bristol City?
- Fipster's model gave Bolton a 31% chance of winning, Bristol City a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 38% confidence — a low-confidence call.