Bologna vs Monza
Bologna claw back to edge Monza
A penalty apiece set the stage before Bologna's Bernardeschi sealed a narrow win.
Monza struck early with Gustavo Varela's penalty, but Bologna responded well with T. Pobega's first-half equaliser and F. Bernardeschi's second-half penalty winner. Despite Monza's P. Cutrone missing a late penalty, Bologna held on for a 2-1 victory. This result defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a Monza win, proving the home side's resilience.
Outcome probability
Bologna and Monza face off in what promises to be a closely contested Serie A fixture. Both teams have had mixed fortunes this season, with Monza looking to capitalise on their recent attacking form to secure an away win.
Match factors
Bologna missing key attackers
Bologna's confirmed absences include key attackers R. Orsolini and R. Piccoli, weakening their offensive options
Monza's forwards in strong scoring form
Monza's S. Mbangula and Gustavo Varela have been scoring consistently, boosting Monza's attack
L. Ferguson's superior passing and defensive stats
Ferguson outperforms league averages in passing accuracy and tackles, key for Bologna's midfield control
Monza's defensive solidity with Kouadio and Carboni
Kouadio and Carboni provide strong defensive coverage with high tackle and interception rates, challenging Bologna's attack
The context
Bologna sit 11th in the league with 11 points from 9 games, showing some inconsistency with three wins and four losses. Monza, meanwhile, are 15th with 7 points from 8 games, struggling for consistency but buoyed by their forwards' recent goal-scoring exploits.
Key insights
- S
S. Mbangula
Monza
S. Mbangula has been in strong scoring form with 3 goals in the last away match and multiple goals recently, making him a key offensive threat.
Serie A 26/273 goals in recent fixtures
- G
Gustavo Varela
Monza
Gustavo Varela consistently scores and assists, with high match ratings up to 9.71, central to Monza's attack.
Serie A 26/27Multiple goals and assists with ratings up to 9.71
- L
L. Ferguson
Bologna
L. Ferguson outperforms league averages in passing accuracy (~92%) and tackles (2.5 per game), crucial for Bologna's midfield control.
Serie A 26/27Passing accuracy ~92%, 2.5 tackles/game
- E
E. Kouadio
Monza
E. Kouadio leads Monza's defence with 22 tackles and interceptions in 8 games, boasting a duel win rate around 60%.
Serie A 26/2722 tackles and interceptions, ~60% duel win rate
Analysis
Monza's attacking duo, S. Mbangula and Gustavo Varela, have been in fine form, contributing multiple goals recently and posing a significant threat to Bologna's defence. Defensively, Monza are bolstered by E. Kouadio and A. Carboni, who provide solid tackling and interception stats, making it tough for Bologna's attackers. Bologna will miss key offensive players R. Orsolini and R. Piccoli, which could hamper their goal-scoring opportunities. Midfielder L. Ferguson stands out for Bologna with impressive passing accuracy and defensive work, but it may not be enough to contain Monza's firepower.
Key facts
- 1.Bologna are 11th in the league with 11 points from 9 games (W3 D2 L4).
- 2.Monza are 15th with 7 points from 8 games (W2 D1 L5).
- 3.Monza's forwards S. Mbangula and Gustavo Varela have been scoring consistently.
- 4.Bologna will miss key attackers R. Orsolini and R. Piccoli due to injury.
- 5.L. Ferguson boasts a passing accuracy of around 92%, well above league average for midfielders.
- 6.Monza's defenders E. Kouadio and A. Carboni provide strong defensive coverage with high tackle and interception rates.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards an away win for Monza with a 3-2 final scoreline after a balanced first half ending 1-1. Despite the low confidence due to limited head-to-head history, the statistical edge in attacking form and defensive solidity suggests Monza will edge this encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Bologna
Away — Monza
The verdict
Expect an entertaining match with goals at both ends. Monza's recent momentum and key player performances could see them snatch a narrow victory, while Bologna will fight hard to keep the scoreline respectable despite missing key attackers.
Prediction generated 28 Oct 2026, 21:38 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Gustavo Varela
Penalty
Ricardo Mangas
Yellow Card
Odgaard
Yellow Card
Pobega
Yellow Card
Pobega
Assist: Miranda
Zeballos
Penalty confirmed
Lucchesi
Yellow Card
Bernardeschi
Penalty
Odgaard
Kouadio
Colombo
Mota
Gustavo Varela
Zortea
Yellow Card
Pobega
Vitík
Touré
Yellow Card
Penalty confirmed
Cutrone
Missed Penalty
Zortea
Bernardeschi
Amondarain
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Bologna
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1Ł. SkorupskiG
- 3A. TheateD
- 4T. PobegaM
- 10F. BernardeschiM
- 16N. CasaleD
- 19L. FergusonM
- 20N. ZorteaM
- 21J. OdgaardF
- 28N. CambiaghiM
- 33Juan MirandaM
- 41M. VitíkD
Substitutes
- 5E. HellandD
- 6N. MoroM
- 7R. OrsoliniF
- 8M. AmondarainM
- 9A. DovbykF
- 11S. MbangulaF
- 14T. HeggemD
- 17O. El AzzouziM
- 18M. LibraM
- 23R. AlhassaneD
- 25M. PessinaG
- 36M. DarmianD
- 72U. HapponenG
Monza
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1N. TörnqvistG
- 2S. GoglichidzeD
- 3L. LucchesiD
- 7Ricardo MangasM
- 8M. OndoaM
- 9Gustavo VarelaF
- 19S. BirindelliM
- 21L. ColomboM
- 22E. ZeballosM
- 47Dany MotaM
- 60E. KouadioD
Substitutes
- 6V. AntovD
- 10P. CutroneF
- 11O. ForsonF
- 14E. AkinsanmiroM
- 16C. NgongeF
- 20D. ThiamG
- 24A. BakouneD
- 26P. CiurriaF
- 27I. TouréM
- 28A. ColpaniM
- 43A. StrajnarG
- 44A. CarboniD
- 46Jay RobinsonF
- 80M. MoutM
Bologna
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Miranda | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2/3 |
| T. Pobega | M | 74 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| S. Mbangula | F | 26 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| N. Casale | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. Vitík | D | 75 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| M. Darmian | D | 15 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Ferguson | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| F. Bernardeschi | M | 83 | 6.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/5 |
| A. Theate | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Ł. Skorupski | G | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Dovbyk | F | 7 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Zortea | M | 83 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/4 |
| O. El Azzouzi | M | 16 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Cambiaghi | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| M. Amondarain | M | 7 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Odgaard | F | 64 | 6.1 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| E. Helland | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Alhassane | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| U. Happonen | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Pessina | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Libra | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Heggem | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Orsolini | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Moro | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Monza
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Goglichidze | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Varela | F | 71 | 6.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| S. Birindelli | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| C. Ngonge | F | 19 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| P. Cutrone | F | 19 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| M. Mout | M | 24 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Jay Robinson | F | 44 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| L. Lucchesi | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| E. Zeballos | M | 46 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| L. Colombo | M | 66 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Dany Mota | M | 71 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| N. Törnqvist | G | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Touré | M | 24 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Kouadio | D | 66 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ricardo Mangas | M | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| M. Ondoa | M | 90 | 5.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| A. Bakoune | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Strajnar | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Akinsanmiro | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Antov | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Colpani | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Thiam | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Ciurria | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Carboni | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Forson | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Bologna vs Monza?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Monza to win against Bologna.
- What score did Fipster predict for Bologna vs Monza?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Bologna 2–3 Monza.
- What were the win probabilities for Bologna vs Monza?
- Fipster's model gave Bologna a 28% chance of winning, Monza a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 43% confidence — a low-confidence call.