Blackburn vs QPR
QPR snatch narrow win at Blackburn
A quick-fire response after the break secured QPR all three points.
Blackburn took the lead early in the second half through R. Morishita, but QPR responded swiftly with P. Smyth equalising just two minutes later. J. Dunne then clinched the victory for QPR with a goal in the 74th minute, completing a narrow 2-1 win. This result defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a draw, proving the visitors' resilience and finishing power.
Outcome probability
The new football season kicks off with Blackburn facing QPR in what promises to be a closely fought encounter. Both teams are eager to start on a positive note after summer changes, setting the stage for a competitive match.
Key insights
- C
C. Ward
QPR
New signing C. Ward adds fresh options to QPR's lineup.
Championship 26/27No current season stats available.
- P
P. Charles
QPR
Loan arrival P. Charles provides additional depth for QPR.
Championship 26/27No current season stats available.
The context
Blackburn enter this fixture having released S. Tronstad, while QPR have strengthened their squad with the signings of C. Ward and P. Charles on loan. QPR have also seen departures including S. Cook, J. Walsh on loan, and I. Hayden released. These changes could influence the dynamics as both sides look to gel early in the campaign.
Key facts
- 1.Blackburn have released S. Tronstad ahead of the new season.
- 2.QPR have signed C. Ward on a permanent transfer.
- 3.QPR have also brought in P. Charles on loan.
- 4.QPR have lost S. Cook and I. Hayden as free agents, and J. Walsh on loan.
- 5.The predicted final score is a 1-1 draw.
- 6.The match is expected to feature around four total cards.
- 7.This is the first league match of the 2026 season for both teams.
- 8.The probabilities for home win, draw, and away win are very close, indicating a tight contest.
Analysis
With neither side having played competitive league football this season, the match is expected to be finely balanced. Blackburn and QPR are closely matched, and the predicted 1-1 draw reflects the tight probabilities between a home win, draw, and away win. The forecast also suggests a moderately carded game with around four bookings likely, indicating a competitive but controlled contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Blackburn
Away — QPR
Prediction
The most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw, with both teams expected to find the net once. This scoreline edges out other possibilities, reflecting the evenly matched nature of the sides and their cautious approach in the season opener.
The verdict
As the season gets underway, Blackburn and QPR will be keen to build momentum from this opening fixture. A draw seems a fair reflection of their current strengths and summer adjustments, setting up an intriguing campaign ahead.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Clarke-Salter
Yellow Card
Edwards
Yellow Card
Madsen
Cirkin
Morishita
Assist: Guðjohnsen
Smyth
Assist: Burrell
Unknown
Forshaw
Smyth
Guðjohnsen
Yellow Card
Dunne
Assist: Lamptey
McLoughlin
Yellow Card
Mbengue
Sam Morsy
Yellow Card
Ribeiro
Afolayan
Montgomery
Cantwell
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 17 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 |  QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 |  Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 17 |  Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
Match Statistics
Blackburn
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2R. AlebiosuD
- 4Yuri RibeiroD
- 6Tom AtchesonD
- 9A. GuðjohnsenF
- 10T. CantwellM
- 15S. McLoughlinD
- 21O. AfolayanM
- 22B. TóthG
- 25R. MorishitaM
- 28A. ForshawM
- 31Kristi MontgomeryM
Substitutes
- 1A. PearsG
- 8Sam MorsyM
- 11J. FevrierF
- 30J. GarrettM
- 53F. VareM
QPR
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1P. CharlesG
- 3J. DunneD
- 5R. EdwardsM
- 6J. Clarke-SalterD
- 10I. ChairM
- 11P. SmythM
- 16R. BurrellF
- 19D. CirkinD
- 24N. MadsenM
- 27A. MbengueD
Substitutes
- 2K. AdamsonD
- 13C. WardG
- 14K. SaitoF
- 17K. PokuM
- 18G. KamaraM
- 20H. ValeM
- 40J. VaraneM
- 48T. LampteyD
Blackburn
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Morishita | M | 90 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| R. Alebiosu | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | 2 | — | 3 | 1/7 |
| B. Tóth | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Forshaw | M | 57 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Yuri Ribeiro | D | 81 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Tom Atcheson | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| S. McLoughlin | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Kristi Montgomery | M | 81 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| A. Guðjohnsen | F | 90 | 6.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Fevrier | F | 9 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| T. Cantwell | M | 88 | 6.3 | — | — | 6 | 1 | — | — |
| J. Garrett | M | 9 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| F. Vare | M | 2 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Afolayan | M | 81 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/3 |
| Sam Morsy | M | 33 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| A. Pears | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
QPR
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Smyth | M | 64 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| J. Dunne | D | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| R. Burrell | F | 90 | 7.5 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 6 | 1/1 |
| T. Lamptey | D | 45 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | 1/2 |
| G. Kamara | M | 45 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| K. Poku | M | 26 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 3/3 |
| D. Cirkin | D | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| N. Madsen | M | 45 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Mbengue | D | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| R. Edwards | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| I. Chair | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | — |
| J. Clarke-Salter | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Charles | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Adamson | D | 10 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Varane | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Saito | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Ward | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Vale | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Blackburn vs QPR?
- Fipster's AI model predicted a draw between Blackburn and QPR.
- What score did Fipster predict for Blackburn vs QPR?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Blackburn 1–1 QPR.
- What were the win probabilities for Blackburn vs QPR?
- Fipster's model gave Blackburn a 29% chance of winning, QPR a 28% chance, and a 43% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 43% confidence — a low-confidence call.