Birmingham vs QPR
Birmingham cruise to comfortable win over QPR
L. Millar's brace and a late D. Gray goal seal a commanding 3-0 victory.
Birmingham delivered a dominant performance against QPR, with L. Millar opening the scoring in the first half and doubling the lead shortly after the break. D. Gray added a late goal in stoppage time to complete the 3-0 rout. Fipster's prediction of a home win was spot on, though the margin of victory was even more convincing than anticipated.
Outcome probability
Birmingham and QPR face off in the 11th round of the regular season, with both teams eager to climb the league standings. Expect a competitive encounter with goals on both sides.
Match factors
Priske's home scoring form boosts Birmingham attack
Priske has scored 2 goals in last 2 home games, providing a key threat in attack at home
Millar's assist rate well above league average
Millar's 3 assists in 5 games (0.6 per game) surpass league midfielder average of 0.077
Birmingham's consistent scoring streak at home
Birmingham has scored in last 5 home games, averaging 2.2 goals per home game
QPR missing key midfielders reduces creative options
QPR confirmed out players include two midfielders, limiting attacking creativity
Osayi-Samuel's defensive solidity key to containing QPR attack
Osayi-Samuel's tackling and duel win rates exceed league averages, vital for defense
The context
Birmingham currently sit 3rd in the league with 17 points from 10 games, while QPR are 8th with 14 points from 9 games. Their head-to-head history is fairly balanced, with QPR holding a slight edge in wins, but recent form and home advantage favour Birmingham.
Key insights
- A
August Priske Flyger
Birmingham
Priske’s home scoring form is a major boost, with 2 goals in his last 2 home games providing a key attacking threat.
Championship 26/274 goals in 10 games, 3 at home
L. Millar
Birmingham
Millar’s assist rate is well above the league average, with 3 assists in 5 games, making him a crucial creative force.
Championship 26/273 assists in 5 games, 0.6 per game
- B
Birmingham
Birmingham
Birmingham’s consistent scoring streak at home, netting in their last 5 home games and averaging 2.2 goals per game, underpins their attacking strength.
- B
B. Osayi-Samuel
QPR
Osayi-Samuel’s defensive solidity is key to containing Birmingham’s attack, with above-average tackling and duel win rates.
Championship 26/272.11 tackles per game, 57.7% duel win rate
Analysis
The teams have met 20 times previously, with Birmingham winning 6 and QPR 9, alongside 5 draws. Matches between them average 2.5 goals, aligning well with the predicted 2-1 scoreline. Birmingham's consistent scoring at home, averaging over 2 goals per game in recent matches, combined with August Priske Flyger's strong home form, gives them the attacking edge. Meanwhile, QPR's creativity is hampered by missing key midfielders, which could limit their chances despite a solid defensive effort led by Osayi-Samuel.
Key facts
- 1.Birmingham are 3rd in the league with 17 points from 10 games (W4 D5 L1).
- 2.QPR are 8th with 14 points from 9 games (W3 D5 L1).
- 3.In 20 meetings, Birmingham have won 6, QPR 9, with 5 draws.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 2.5 goals, matching the predicted 2-1 scoreline.
- 5.Birmingham have scored in their last 5 home games, averaging 2.2 goals per game.
- 6.August Priske Flyger has 4 goals in 10 games, including 3 at home.
- 7.L. Millar leads with 3 assists in 5 games, boasting a 0.6 assist per game rate.
- 8.QPR are missing key midfielders, reducing their creative options.
Prediction
We anticipate a lively first half ending 1-1, with both teams finding the net. However, Birmingham's attacking momentum and home scoring streak should see them edge ahead in the second half to secure a 2-1 victory. Expect a moderately physical game with around three cards shown.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Birmingham
Away — QPR
No standout top scorers flagged for QPR
The verdict
Birmingham's home advantage and attacking threats make them the favourites to claim all three points. QPR will put up a fight, but the hosts' form and key players should prove decisive in this closely fought encounter.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 20:51 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Solis
Yellow Card
Millar
Assist: Iwata
Vale
Yellow Card
Millar
Assist: Iwata
Rayan Jawad Kolli
Yellow Card
Roberts
Solis
Rayan Jawad Kolli
Klarer
Yellow Card
Millar
Clarke-Salter
Smyth
Kamara
Priske
Gray
Assist: Vázquez
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +10 | 25 |
| 2 |  Birmingham | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | +10 | 23 |
| 3 |  Stoke City | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | +4 | 23 |
| 8 |  Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +12 | 20 |
| 9 |  QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | +8 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +2 | 19 |
Match Statistics
Birmingham
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1J. BeadleG
- 4C. KlarerD
- 5P. NeumannD
- 9A. PriskeF
- 14J. SolisM
- 16P. RobertsM
- 17L. MillarM
- 20A. CochraneD
- 24T. IwataM
- 26B. Osayi-SamuelD
- 28J. StansfieldM
Substitutes
- 2E. LairdD
- 7Carlos VicenteF
- 10D. GrayF
- 18M. BirdM
- 19T. Gardner-HickmanM
- 21R. AllsopG
- 23D. FryD
- 32L. VázquezF
- 33M. DuckschF
QPR
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1P. CharlesG
- 2K. AdamsonD
- 3J. DunneD
- 5R. EdwardsM
- 6J. Clarke-SalterD
- 11P. SmythM
- 12B. KemperD
- 17K. PokuM
- 18G. KamaraM
- 20H. ValeM
- 26Rayan Jawad KolliF
Substitutes
- 4L. MorrisonD
- 13C. WardG
- 14K. SaitoF
- 22R. KoneF
- 23I. AlemayehuM
- 24N. MadsenM
- 25Justin Patrick Nnamdi ObikwuF
- 40J. VaraneM
Birmingham
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Millar | M | 71 | 9.7 | 2 | — | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0/1 |
| T. Iwata | M | 90 | 8.6 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| C. Klarer | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Gray | F | 19 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. Cochrane | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Neumann | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| L. Vázquez | F | 4 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Bird | M | 33 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Roberts | M | 57 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| J. Beadle | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Solis | M | 57 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| B. Osayi-Samuel | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Carlos Vicente | F | 33 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Stansfield | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| A. Priske | F | 86 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 0/1 |
| D. Fry | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Laird | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ducksch | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Allsop | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Gardner-Hickman | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
QPR
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Edwards | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1/1 |
| J. Dunne | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Rayan Jawad Kolli | F | 62 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| G. Kamara | M | 81 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| K. Saito | F | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Kone | F | 28 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| K. Poku | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| J. Varane | M | 18 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| H. Vale | M | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| J. Clarke-Salter | D | 72 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Adamson | D | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| P. Smyth | M | 81 | 5.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| P. Charles | G | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Kemper | D | 90 | 5.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| C. Ward | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Madsen | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Morrison | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Alemayehu | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Patrick Nnamdi Obikwu | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Birmingham vs QPR?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Birmingham to win against QPR.
- What score did Fipster predict for Birmingham vs QPR?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Birmingham 2–1 QPR.
- What were the win probabilities for Birmingham vs QPR?
- Fipster's model gave Birmingham a 68% chance of winning, QPR a 16% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 68% confidence — a high-confidence call.