Benfica vs Alverca
Benfica edges Alverca with penalty
A solitary spot-kick secures a narrow win for the home side.
Benfica claimed a tight 1-0 victory over Alverca in the Primeira Liga thanks to V. Pavlidis' penalty just after the break. Despite Fipster predicting a more goal-filled 3-2 affair, the outcome of a home win was spot on, albeit with fewer goals than expected.
Outcome probability
Benfica, also known as As Águias, face off against Alverca in the 10th round of the regular season. Both teams have shown moments of promise, but this fixture promises to be a closely contested affair with plenty of attacking intent.
Match factors
Benfica's attacking duo in strong form
Pavlidis and Prestianni combine high goal and assist rates, driving Benfica's offense effectively
Superior passing and possession control by Benfica defenders
Araújo's 93% passing accuracy and high volume surpass league averages, aiding build-up
Alverca's Camara showing improved scoring form
Camara has 3 goals in last 5 games, indicating rising threat if fit
Alverca's key assist provider Marques can unlock Benfica defense
Marques averages 0.6 assists per game, a creative outlet for Alverca's attack
No confirmed injuries for either team
Full squads available, so tactical choices and form will decide outcome
The context
Benfica currently sit 2nd in the league with 19 points from 8 games, boasting a strong goal difference of +17. Alverca are 8th with 11 points from 9 games and a neutral goal difference of 0. Historically, Benfica have won both previous encounters against Alverca, scoring 4 goals to 2, setting the tone for this matchup.
Key insights
Vangelis Pavlidis
Benfica
Leads team scoring with 8 goals in 8 games, making him a key attacking threat at home.
Primeira Liga 26/278 goals in 8 appearances, 1.0 avg goals/game
- G
Gianluca Prestianni Gross
Benfica
Strong goal and assist contribution with 5 goals and 3 assists, vital in driving Benfica's offense.
Primeira Liga 26/275 goals and 3 assists in 8 appearances
- T
Tomás Araújo
Benfica
Excellent passing accuracy (93%) and high passing volume help Benfica control possession and build attacks.
Primeira Liga 26/2793% passing accuracy, avg 86.75 passes per game
- D
Dawda Camara Sankharé
Alverca
Top scorer for Alverca with 3 goals in 5 games, showing improved scoring form and posing a threat if fit.
Primeira Liga 26/273 goals in 5 appearances, 0.6 avg goals/game
Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques
Alverca
Key assist provider with 3 assists in 5 games, capable of unlocking Benfica's defense.
Primeira Liga 26/273 assists in 5 appearances, 0.6 avg assists/game
Analysis
The first half is expected to be balanced, with a predicted 1-1 scoreline reflecting Alverca's resilience and Benfica's attacking prowess. Benfica's attacking duo, Vangelis Pavlidis and Gianluca Prestianni Gross, have been in fine form, combining for a significant share of goals and assists this season. Defensively, Benfica's Tomás Araújo provides stability with excellent passing accuracy, helping control possession. Alverca's Dawda Camara Sankharé and Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques offer threats in attack and creativity, respectively, ensuring Benfica cannot relax.
Key facts
- 1.Benfica have won both previous meetings against Alverca, scoring 4 goals to 2.
- 2.Benfica are ranked 2nd in their league with 19 points from 8 games.
- 3.Alverca are ranked 8th in their league with 11 points from 9 games.
- 4.Benfica have a significantly better goal difference (+17) than Alverca (0) this season.
- 5.Benfica average 2.38 points per game, nearly double Alverca's 1.22.
- 6.The predicted halftime score is 1-1, indicating a competitive first half.
- 7.The predicted fulltime score is 3-2 in favor of Benfica.
Prediction
We anticipate Benfica to pull ahead in the second half, ultimately winning 3-2. The home side's superior points per game and goal difference suggest they have the edge, but Alverca's fighting spirit will keep the scoreline close and the match entertaining.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Benfica
Away — Alverca
The verdict
This fixture promises a thrilling encounter with plenty of goals and attacking football. Benfica's quality and form should see them through, but Alverca will provide stern competition. Expect a lively match that keeps fans on the edge of their seats until the final whistle.
Prediction generated 26 Oct 2026, 20:42 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Bojang
Yellow Card
Goal cancelled
Schjelderup
Pavlidis
Penalty
Chiquinho
Yellow Card
Chissumba
Figueiredo
Ian Luccas
Yellow Card
Lenglet
Yellow Card
Lukebakio
Camara
Ian Luccas
James
João Palhinha
Pavlidis
Prestianni
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | +21 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | +18 | 22 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 21 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 10 |  Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicao | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
Match Statistics
Benfica
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2C. LengletD
- 6A. BahD
- 8F. AursnesM
- 11D. LukebakioM
- 14V. PavlidisF
- 21A. SchjelderupM
- 24Samuel SoaresG
- 25G. PrestianniM
- 26S. DahlD
- 36João PalhinhaM
- 44Tomás AraújoD
Substitutes
- 1A. TrubinG
- 3A. CircatiD
- 10H. SudakovM
- 13J. KamińskiF
- 16ManuM
- 22J. DuránF
- 27RafaM
- 30C. EcheverriM
- 34S. El KarouaniD
- 58Daniel BanjaquiD
- 72A. CabralF
Alverca
3-4-3Starting XI
- 2ZoubdiM
- 4Y. BojangD
- 6D. GuiM
- 10ChiquinhoF
- 12I. JamesD
- 19D. CamaraF
- 21Sergi GómezD
- 22FigueiredoF
- 25Ian LuccasM
- 31Matheus MendesG
- 55Francisco ChissumbaM
Substitutes
- 3J. MartínezD
- 8Vasco MoreiraM
- 9Vivaldo SemedoF
- 11C. NuozziF
- 17S. MerhegF
- 18Z. KassaryM
- 20Diogo Filipe Spencer MarquesD
- 23André PauloG
- 26Matheus FrançaF
- 27Toni TamaritF
- 93Zé RafaelM
Benfica
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Soares | G | 90 | 8.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Pavlidis | F | 92 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0/3 |
| S. Dahl | D | 90 | 7.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomás Araújo | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bah | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| C. Lenglet | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| F. Aursnes | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| João Palhinha | M | 92 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Rafa | M | 21 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| C. Echeverri | M | 44 | 7.0 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1/3 |
| A. Schjelderup | M | 46 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/5 |
| D. Lukebakio | M | 69 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2/3 |
| G. Prestianni | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 4/8 |
| Manu | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Circati | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Sudakov | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Banjaqui | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Cabral | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. El Karouani | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Kamiński | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Durán | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Trubin | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Alverca
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Mendes | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus França | F | 31 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Francisco Chissumba | M | 59 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Sergi Gómez | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques | D | 31 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Figueiredo | F | 59 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Chiquinho | F | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2/7 |
| Zé Rafael | M | 15 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. James | D | 86 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| C. Nuozzi | F | 4 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Ian Luccas | M | 75 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Camara | F | 75 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| D. Gui | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Y. Bojang | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Zoubdi | M | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/3 |
| Vivaldo Semedo | F | 15 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Toni Tamarit | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Z. Kassary | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Paulo | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vasco Moreira | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Martínez | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Merheg | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Benfica vs Alverca?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Benfica to win against Alverca.
- What score did Fipster predict for Benfica vs Alverca?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Benfica 3–2 Alverca.
- What were the win probabilities for Benfica vs Alverca?
- Fipster's model gave Benfica a 84% chance of winning, Alverca a 8% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 84% confidence — a high-confidence call.