France vs Belgium
Match recap
France beat Belgium 4–1 in their UEFA Nations League fixture. Doué, Cherki, Olise, and Olise scored for France; Lukebakio replied for Belgium. France held 66% possession to 34% for Belgium.
Outcome probability
The upcoming League A fixture between France and Belgium promises a tactical battle between two closely matched sides. Both teams have shown solid form in the competition so far, making this a potentially cagey affair.
Match factors
Mbappé's pace vs Belgium's defense
Mbappé's high scoring rate and pace pose a significant threat to Belgium's backline, which has conceded 1.5 goals per home game
Olise's recent scoring and assisting form
Olise has 2 goals and 1 assist in last 3 games, outperforming league midfielder averages and showing strong form
De Bruyne's creative influence for Belgium
De Bruyne's 1 assist in 2 games and high match ratings indicate he is key to Belgium's attacking chances
Koundé's defensive dominance
Koundé's 5 tackles and 63.6% duel win rate exceed league defender averages, bolstering France's defense
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so tactical and form factors will be decisive
The context
France and Belgium have each played three matches in this competition, with France unbeaten (two wins and a draw) and Belgium holding two wins and one loss. Belgium currently sit top of the standings with three points from one game, just ahead of France in second place. Historically, France have dominated their head-to-head meetings, winning all five encounters without a draw or loss.
Key insights
Kylian Mbappé
France
Mbappé's pace and scoring rate pose a significant threat to Belgium's defence, which concedes 1.5 goals per home game.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal in 1 appearance, 59 mins avg
M. Olise
France
Olise's recent form with 2 goals and 1 assist in last 3 games outperforms league midfielder averages, making him a key attacking threat.
UEFA Nations League 26/272 goals in last 3 games, 1 assist in 2 appearances, 91 mins total
K. De Bruyne
Belgium
De Bruyne's creative influence with 1 assist in 2 games and high match ratings makes him central to Belgium's attacking chances.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 assist in 2 appearances, 121 mins total
- J
J. Koundé
France
Koundé's defensive dominance with 5 tackles per game and 63.6% duel win rate strengthens France's backline.
UEFA Nations League 26/275 tackles per game, 63.6% duel win rate
Analysis
The probabilities suggest a draw is the most likely outcome, with a 34.5% chance, narrowly edging out an away win for Belgium. The 0-0 scoreline is the single most probable result, reflecting the tight defensive displays expected from both sides. France's defensive stalwarts like Jules Koundé and Dayot Upamecano have been key in maintaining solidity, while Belgium's creative spark comes from Kevin De Bruyne, who has been influential with assists and high match ratings. Kylian Mbappé's pace and scoring threat for France will test Belgium's defence, but the overall balance points to a stalemate.
Key facts
- 1.France have played 3 matches in this competition (W2 D1 L0, GF 3 / GA 1).
- 2.Belgium have played 3 matches in this competition (W2 D0 L1, GF 5 / GA 1).
- 3.France lead head-to-head meetings against Belgium with 5 wins from 5 matches.
- 4.France are ranked 2nd in this competition with 3 points from 1 game.
- 5.Belgium are ranked 1st in this competition with 3 points from 1 game.
- 6.The most probable match outcome is a draw with a 34.5% chance.
- 7.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 4, indicating moderate disciplinary action.
Prediction
We predict a 0-0 draw between France and Belgium, with a moderate number of cards expected (around four) as both teams contest possession and territory cautiously. The match is likely to be a tactical chess match rather than a goal-fest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — France
Away — Belgium
The verdict
In summary, this League A fixture looks set to be a tight, disciplined encounter with neither side able to break the deadlock. Fans can expect a competitive match where defensive organisation and midfield battles take centre stage.
Prediction generated 2 Oct 2026, 20:41 UTC · Fipster Model v1.162
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Lukebakio
Assist: Lavia
Lavia
Yellow Card
Dembélé
Akliouche
Koné
Lacroix
Yellow Card
Lukebakio
Lukaku
Barcola
Yellow Card
Seys
Yellow Card
Doué
Assist: da Cunha
Cherki
Assist: Olise
Diego Moreira
Lavia
Vanaken
Olise
Assist: Doué
Camavinga
Olise
Assist: Doué
Match Statistics
France
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1G. RestesG
- 5J. KoundéD
- 6E. CamavingaM
- 7O. DembéléF
- 8M. KonéM
- 12B. BarcolaF
- 13A. DioufD
- 15L. YoroD
- 17M. LacroixD
- 18M. AklioucheM
- 19E. LepaulF
Substitutes
- 2P. KaluluD
- 3A. TruffertD
- 9R. CherkiM
- 11M. OliseM
- 14A. RabiotM
- 16M. MaignanG
- 20D. DouéF
- 21L. da CunhaM
- 23J. ButezG
Belgium
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4B. MecheleD
- 6R. LaviaM
- 9R. LukakuF
- 12M. VandevoordtG
- 14D. LukebakioM
- 15N. NgoyD
- 18J. SeysD
- 19Diego MoreiraM
- 20H. VanakenM
- 21T. CastagneD
- 23N. RaskinM
Substitutes
- 1S. LammensG
- 2Z. DebastD
- 3A. TheateD
- 5M. De CuyperD
- 7M. GodtsF
- 8M. KeitaM
- 10L. TrossardF
- 11L. OpendaF
- 13M. PendersG
- 16K. SabbeD
- 17C. De KetelaereF
- 22M. Fernandez-PardoF
France
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Doué | F | 18 | 8.9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| M. Olise | M | 30 | 8.6 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0/2 |
| R. Cherki | M | 30 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1/2 |
| L. Yoro | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| O. Dembélé | F | 60 | 7.2 | — | — | 5 | — | 4 | 1/6 |
| L. da Cunha | M | 29 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| M. Akliouche | M | 60 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| M. Koné | M | 61 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | — |
| J. Koundé | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| G. Restes | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Camavinga | M | 88 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| B. Barcola | F | 72 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| A. Diouf | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Lacroix | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| E. Lepaul | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Rabiot | M | 2 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Kalulu | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Truffert | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Butez | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Maignan | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Belgium
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Lukebakio | M | 70 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4/5 |
| R. Lavia | M | 87 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| C. De Ketelaere | F | 20 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| M. Godts | F | 20 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 4/4 |
| M. Vandevoordt | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Trossard | F | 3 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Openda | F | 3 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diego Moreira | M | 87 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| N. Raskin | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| N. Ngoy | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| R. Lukaku | F | 70 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| B. Mechele | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Castagne | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Keita | M | 3 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Vanaken | M | 87 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. Seys | D | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. De Cuyper | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Lammens | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Theate | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Sabbe | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Z. Debast | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Penders | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Fernandez-Pardo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win France vs Belgium?
- Fipster's AI model predicted a draw between France and Belgium.
- What score did Fipster predict for France vs Belgium?
- Fipster predicted a final score of France 0–0 Belgium.
- What were the win probabilities for France vs Belgium?
- Fipster's model gave France a 33% chance of winning, Belgium a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.