Belarus vs San Marino
Belarus cruise to comfortable win over San Marino
Kontsevoy's brace and a solid team effort secure a 4-0 victory in the Nations League.
Belarus dominated San Marino with a 4-0 victory in the UEFA Nations League, powered by A. Kontsevoy's two goals and additional strikes from A. Shumanskiy and M. Ebong. The goals came mostly after the break, setting a clear tone of control and efficiency. Fipster's prediction of a Belarus win was spot on, though the margin of victory was more emphatic than expected.
Outcome probability
Belarus and San Marino face off in a League C match where both sides are desperate for points. Belarus have yet to find the net in this competition, while San Marino have conceded heavily. Expect a competitive game with Belarus just about having the edge.
Match factors
Belarus midfielders outperform league averages in passing and duels
A. Svirepa and A. Kovalev show passing accuracy and duel win rates well above league averages, aiding ball retention and transition.
No confirmed injuries for Belarus or San Marino
Both teams have full squads available, ensuring strongest lineups possible for Belarus' home advantage.
Belarus defense led by V. Kalinin shows strong tackling presence
Kalinin's 6 tackles in last match highlight defensive solidity, crucial against San Marino's attack.
Belarus predicted to break scoring drought at home
Despite recent failures to score, Belarus is expected to score 2 goals at home against a weak San Marino defense.
The context
In this League C round 3 fixture, Belarus sit third with no points from one game, having drawn once and lost once without scoring. San Marino are fourth, also pointless after two losses and a leaky defence conceding 10 goals. Both teams are looking to improve their fortunes in this tight league phase.
Key insights
- A
A. Svirepa
Belarus
Passing accuracy 78% above league average for midfielders, aiding ball retention and transition.
UEFA Nations League 26/27Passing accuracy 78% vs league average 68.7%
- V
V. Kalinin
Belarus
High defensive work rate with 6 tackles in last match, key to containing opposition attackers.
UEFA Nations League 26/276 tackles in last match
- A
A. Kovalev
Belarus
Passing accuracy 83% above league average, potential creative influence in midfield.
UEFA Nations League 26/27Passing accuracy 83%
- Z
Z. Volkov
Belarus
High passing volume indicating build-up role and reliable defensive presence.
UEFA Nations League 26/2759 passes in last match
Analysis
The probabilities for this match are finely balanced, with home and away wins nearly neck and neck. However, the most likely scoreline is a 2-1 win for Belarus, reflecting their slight advantage at home and a defence that, while tested, is more robust than San Marino's. Belarus midfielders like A. Svirepa and A. Kovalev boast passing accuracy and duel success rates well above league averages, aiding their control and transition play. Defensively, V. Kalinin's tackling prowess will be key to containing San Marino's attack. Both teams have full squads available, so expect a full-strength battle.
Key facts
- 1.Belarus have played 2 matches in this competition (W0 D1 L1, GF 0 / GA 2)
- 2.San Marino have played 2 matches in this competition (W0 D0 L2, GF 0 / GA 10)
- 3.Belarus are ranked 3rd in this competition with 0 points from 1 game
- 4.San Marino are ranked 4th in this competition with 0 points from 1 game
- 5.Belarus have a significantly better goal difference (5 goals) than San Marino this season
- 6.Belarus midfielders A. Svirepa and A. Kovalev have passing accuracy well above league average
- 7.Defender V. Kalinin made 6 tackles in the last match, highlighting defensive work rate
- 8.Both teams have full squads available with no confirmed injuries
Prediction
We predict Belarus will break their scoring drought with a 2-1 victory over San Marino. The home side's improved midfield performance and defensive solidity should be enough to edge out a narrow win in this closely matched League C fixture.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Belarus
Away — San Marino
No standout best passers flagged for San Marino
The verdict
Belarus have the tools to secure a vital win here, but San Marino will not go quietly. Expect a competitive match with moments of quality from Belarus' standout midfielders and a defence determined to keep the scoreline tight. A 2-1 result in favour of Belarus looks the most plausible outcome.
Prediction generated 29 Sep 2026, 20:41 UTC · Fipster Model v1.162
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Nanni
Yellow Card
Golinucci
Yellow Card
Simanenka
Golinucci
Kontsevoy
Assist: Pechenin
Begunov
Yellow Card
Begunov
Gromyko
Giacopetti
Yellow Card
Shumanskiy
Assist: Pechenin
Giocondi
Lazzari
Ebong
Assist: Pechenin
Ebong
Capicchioni
Yellow Card
Melnichenko
Benvenuti
Pasolini
Yellow Card
Capicchioni
Barkovskiy
Yellow Card
Kalinin
Yellow Card
Kontsevoy
Assist: Shumanskiy
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Switzerland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 |  Albania | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 3 |  Belarus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 4 |  Italy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Match Statistics
Belarus
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1P. PavlyuchenkoG
- 2K. PecheninD
- 6R. BegunovD
- 8T. SimanenkaM
- 9M. EbongM
- 10V. GromykoM
- 13K. GomanovD
- 14E. YablonskiyM
- 20Z. VolkovD
- 22A. KontsevoyM
- 23T. MelnichenkoF
Substitutes
- 3I. TikhomirovD
- 4V. BocherovM
- 5V. KalininD
- 7A. ShumanskiyF
- 11G. BarkovskiyF
- 12A. KudravetsG
- 15D. GalyataM
- 16A. KovalevM
- 17V. LisakovichF
- 18E. MalashevichM
- 19A. LukashovD
- 21F. LapoukhovG
San Marino
4-4-2Starting XI
- 2G. BenvenutiD
- 3S. GiocondiD
- 5M. CevoliD
- 8L. CapicchioniM
- 9N. NanniF
- 11N. GiacopettiF
- 15M. PasoliniD
- 17A. GolinucciM
- 21L. LazzariM
Substitutes
- 6D. RossiD
- 7Nicholas ProttiF
- 12A. TosiD
- 19S. PancottiF
- 22M. MularoniM
- 23M. De AngelisG
Belarus
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Pechenin | D | 89 | 9.4 | — | 3 | — | — | 4 | 1/4 |
| A. Kontsevoy | M | 89 | 9.0 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1/2 |
| M. Ebong | M | 69 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| Z. Volkov | D | 89 | 8.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| P. Pavlyuchenko | G | 89 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Shumanskiy | F | 34 | 7.7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| K. Gomanov | D | 89 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Gromyko | M | 55 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| T. Simanenka | M | 46 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| R. Begunov | D | 55 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| V. Kalinin | D | 34 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| V. Bocherov | M | 20 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| V. Lisakovich | F | 43 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/4 |
| E. Yablonskiy | M | 89 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| G. Barkovskiy | F | 15 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| T. Melnichenko | F | 74 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| A. Kovalev | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Kudravets | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Malashevich | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Lapoukhov | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Tikhomirov | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Lukashov | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Galyata | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
San Marino
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Lazzari | M | 67 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| S. Pancotti | F | 22 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Giocondi | D | 67 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| L. Capicchioni | M | 83 | 6.2 | — | — | 4 | 1 | — | 5/5 |
| N. Nanni | F | 89 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| M. Mularoni | M | 43 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Tosi | D | 22 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Pasolini | D | 89 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Golinucci | M | 46 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| N. Giacopetti | F | 89 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/4 |
| M. Cevoli | D | 89 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Benvenuti | D | 75 | 5.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Nicholas Protti | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. De Angelis | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Rossi | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Belarus vs San Marino?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Belarus to win against San Marino.
- What score did Fipster predict for Belarus vs San Marino?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Belarus 2–1 San Marino.
- What were the win probabilities for Belarus vs San Marino?
- Fipster's model gave Belarus a 95% chance of winning, San Marino a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.