Belarus vs Finland
Match recap
Belarus beat Finland 1–0 in their UEFA Nations League fixture. Shumanskiy and Volkov scored for Belarus. Belarus held 26% possession to 74% for Finland.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-1 Belarus win
Actual
1–0
Outcome probability
Belarus and Finland face off in a League C match where the home side looks set to build on a slender halftime lead. Both teams have shown competitive form, but Belarus aim to capitalise on their home advantage to clinch a close win.
Match factors
Belarus' Pechenin Provides Creative Edge from Defense
Pechenin's 3 assists in 4 games and set-piece role give Belarus a creative outlet from the back, challenging Finland's defense.
Finland's Walta Leads Scoring with 4 Goals
Walta's consistent scoring at 1 goal per game makes him Finland's main offensive threat.
Shumanskiy in Good Scoring Form at Home
Shumanskiy has scored 2 goals in last 4 games, both at home, boosting Belarus' attack.
Pohjanpalo's Away Scoring Threat for Finland
Pohjanpalo's 3 goals in 4 games, especially strong away, pose a challenge for Belarus' defense.
Belarus' Defensive Solidity Backed by Volkov and Lukashov
Volkov and Lukashov provide defensive stability with solid tackling and clean sheet contributions.
The context
In this League C round 4 fixture, Belarus currently sit third with no points from one game, while Finland top the table with three points from their opening match. Both teams have played four matches in this competition so far, each with two wins, one draw, and one loss. Finland boast a superior goal difference, having scored nine and conceded two, compared to Belarus's five goals for and two against.
Key insights
Kirill Pechenin
Belarus
Pechenin's 3 assists in 4 games and set-piece role give Belarus a creative outlet from the back, challenging Finland's defence.
UEFA Nations League 26/273 assists in 4 apps, 90 mins avg, 1.5 assists/90 at home last 5
Leo Walta
Finland
Walta's consistent scoring at 1 goal per game makes him Finland's main offensive threat.
UEFA Nations League 26/274 goals in 4 apps, 77 mins avg, 1 goal/90 last 5
Artem Shumanskiy
Belarus
Shumanskiy has scored 2 goals in last 4 games, both at home, boosting Belarus' attack.
UEFA Nations League 26/272 goals in 3 apps, 141 mins avg, 0.5 goals/90 last 5
Joel Pohjanpalo
Finland
Pohjanpalo's 3 goals in 4 games, especially strong away, pose a challenge for Belarus' defence.
UEFA Nations League 26/273 goals in 4 apps, 67.75 mins avg, 1.5 goals/90 away last 5
- Z
Z. Volkov
Belarus
Volkov provides defensive stability with solid tackling and clean sheet contributions.
Analysis
Belarus hold a slight edge in this encounter despite Finland's stronger overall stats and top position in the competition. Belarus have managed to keep their defensive shape well, supported by defenders Volkov and Lukashov, who provide stability at the back. Offensively, Artem Shumanskiy has been a key figure, scoring two goals in recent home games and already netting in this fixture. Finland's attack is spearheaded by Leo Walta, their top scorer with four goals in four games, and Joel Pohjanpalo, who is particularly effective away from home. However, Belarus's creative outlet from defence, Kirill Pechenin, with three assists in four games, could be the difference-maker by unlocking Finland's defence.
Key facts
- 1.Belarus have played 4 matches in this competition (W2 D1 L1, GF 5 / GA 2).
- 2.Finland have played 4 matches in this competition (W2 D1 L1, GF 9 / GA 2).
- 3.In 1 head-to-head meeting, Belarus have won 0, Finland have won 1, with 0 draws.
- 4.Belarus are ranked 3rd in this competition with 0 points from 1 game (W0 D0 L1).
- 5.Finland are ranked 1st in this competition with 3 points from 1 game (W1 D0 L0).
- 6.Finland have a significantly better goal difference (9 goals) than Belarus this season.
- 7.Finland (3.00 PPG) have a notable points-per-game advantage over Belarus (0.00 PPG).
- 8.Artem Shumanskiy is a key offensive threat for Belarus with 1 goal in this fixture.
Prediction
The prediction favours a 2-1 home win for Belarus, consistent with the halftime 1-0 lead they hold. While the margin is expected to be narrow, Belarus's home form and key players' contributions suggest they will edge out Finland in this closely contested match.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Belarus
Away — Finland
The verdict
Expect a tight and competitive game with Belarus leveraging their home advantage and key performers to secure a 2-1 victory. Finland will pose a threat, but Belarus's defensive resilience and attacking creativity should see them through.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 09:07 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Shumanskiy
Volkov
Missed Penalty
Shumanskiy
Yellow Card
Barkovskiy
Yellow Card
Bocherov
Yellow Card
Bocherov
Shumanskiy
Svanbäck
Valakari
Barkovskiy
Lähteenmäki
Peltola
Mahuta
Källman
Yellow Card
Pechenin
Yellow Card
Selyava
Miettinen
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Switzerland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 |  Albania | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 3 |  Belarus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 4 |  Italy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Match Statistics
Belarus
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2K. PecheninD
- 4V. BocherovM
- 5V. KalininD
- 7A. ShumanskiyM
- 8A. SelyavaM
- 9M. EbongM
- 11G. BarkovskiyF
- 13K. GomanovD
- 19A. LukashovM
- 20Z. VolkovD
- 21F. LapoukhovG
Substitutes
- 1P. PavlyuchenkoG
- 3I. TikhomirovD
- 6A. SvirepaM
- 10V. GromykoM
- 12A. KudravetsG
- 14E. YablonskiyM
- 15D. GalyataM
- 16A. KovalevM
- 17V. LisakovichF
- 18E. MalashevichM
- 22A. KontsevoyM
- 23T. MelnichenkoF
Finland
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1L. HrádeckýG
- 2M. PeltolaM
- 5S. MiettinenD
- 8O. ValakariF
- 9A. SvanbäckF
- 10L. WaltaM
- 11A. MarhievM
- 13J. LähteenmäkiD
- 15M. TenhoD
- 17R. MahutaD
- 18T. KeskinenF
Substitutes
- 3A. StåhlD
- 4T. MiettinenD
- 6D. ArifiM
- 7S. VäänänenM
- 12V. SinisaloG
- 14O. JukkolaM
- 16A. SuhonenM
- 19B. KällmanF
- 20J. PohjanpaloF
- 21L. VäisänenD
- 22D. HåkansM
- 23L. BergströmG
Belarus
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Shumanskiy | M | 46 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Z. Volkov | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| K. Gomanov | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Kalinin | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Yablonskiy | M | 6 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Kovalev | M | 44 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| F. Lapoukhov | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Lukashov | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| A. Selyava | M | 84 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ebong | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/3 |
| V. Lisakovich | F | 44 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| T. Melnichenko | F | 28 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| K. Pechenin | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| V. Bocherov | M | 46 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Barkovskiy | F | 62 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Kudravets | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Malashevich | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Tikhomirov | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Gromyko | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Galyata | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Pavlyuchenko | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Kontsevoy | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Svirepa | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Finland
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Tenho | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| L. Hrádecký | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Peltola | M | 67 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Marhiev | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| S. Miettinen | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Lähteenmäki | D | 67 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 3/3 |
| L. Walta | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | — |
| S. Väänänen | M | 23 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. Pohjanpalo | F | 32 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| O. Jukkola | M | 32 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| D. Håkans | M | 16 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Valakari | F | 58 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| R. Mahuta | D | 74 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| B. Källman | F | 23 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Svanbäck | F | 58 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| T. Keskinen | F | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 0/1 |
| A. Suhonen | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Sinisalo | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Bergström | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Arifi | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Miettinen | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Ståhl | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Väisänen | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Belarus vs Finland?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Belarus to win against Finland.
- What score did Fipster predict for Belarus vs Finland?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Belarus 2–1 Finland.
- What were the win probabilities for Belarus vs Finland?
- Fipster's model gave Belarus a 38% chance of winning, Finland a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 38% confidence — a low-confidence call.