Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund
Match recap
Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund drew 2–2 in their Bundesliga fixture. Laimer, Kane, and Upamecano scored for Bayern München; Guirassy and Fábio Silva replied for Borussia Dortmund. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 3.95 for Bayern München versus 0.65 for Borussia Dortmund. Bayern München sit 1st in the Bundesliga table while Borussia Dortmund are 2nd.
Outcome probability
The upcoming clash between Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund promises a tactical battle with Bayern expected to edge ahead. Both teams have shown attacking intent in their recent encounters, but Bayern's strong form at home gives them the upper hand.
Match factors
Bayern's creative midfield weakened by Kimmich absence
Kimmich is out, reducing Bayern's passing and assist potential significantly
Dortmund's defensive solidity with high clean sheet rate
Dortmund has kept clean sheets in 71% of recent games, aiding their defensive resilience
Dortmund's midfielders Nmecha and Svensson pose dual threat
Nmecha's scoring and Svensson's defensive work rate create balance in midfield
Bayern's strong home scoring streak supports predicted win
Bayern scored in last 5 home games with an average of 6 goals per home game
The context
This fixture is part of the regular season's eighth round, where Bayern München currently sit second in the league with 14 points and a superior goal difference of 17. Historically, Bayern have dominated this matchup, winning 14 of the last 20 meetings against Dortmund, with an average of over four goals per game in their head-to-head clashes.
Key insights
Felix Nmecha
Borussia Dortmund
Nmecha’s scoring rate is above average for midfielders, making him a key attacking threat for Dortmund.
Bundesliga 26/272 goals in 6 appearances, 0.33 goals/game
Serhou Guirassy
Borussia Dortmund
Guirassy is Dortmund’s top scorer and assister, contributing significantly to their attack.
Bundesliga 26/272 goals and 2 assists in 6 appearances
- J
Joshua Kimmich
Bayern München
Kimmich’s doubtful status reduces Bayern’s creativity and assist potential in midfield.
Bundesliga 26/272 assists this season
Analysis
Bayern München's home scoring streak is impressive, netting an average of six goals in their last five home games. Despite the absence of key playmaker Joshua Kimmich, Bayern's attacking midfielders and forwards are expected to step up. Dortmund, meanwhile, boast a solid defensive record with clean sheets in 71% of recent matches, and midfielders like Felix Nmecha and Daniel Svensson provide a balanced threat. However, Bayern's ability to take an early lead and control the game is likely to be decisive.
Key facts
- 1.Bayern München have won 14 of 20 matches against Borussia Dortmund.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 4.1 total goals, indicating attacking play.
- 3.Bayern München rank 2nd in the league with 14 points and a goal difference of 17.
- 4.Bayern have scored in their last 5 home games, averaging 6 goals per game.
- 5.Dortmund have kept clean sheets in 71% of recent matches.
- 6.Joshua Kimmich is doubtful, impacting Bayern's creativity.
- 7.Felix Nmecha has scored 2 goals in 6 appearances for Dortmund.
- 8.Serhou Guirassy leads Dortmund with 2 goals and 2 assists this season.
Prediction
The prediction is a 2-0 victory for Bayern München, with a halftime score of 1-0. Bayern are expected to score early and maintain their advantage, keeping Dortmund at bay. The match is also anticipated to see around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Bayern München
No standout top scorers flagged for Bayern München
Away — Borussia Dortmund
The verdict
In summary, Bayern München's strong home form and historical edge over Borussia Dortmund make them favourites to secure a 2-0 win. Dortmund's defensive resilience will be tested, but Bayern's attacking prowess should prevail in this league stage fixture.
Prediction generated 25 Oct 2026, 18:27 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Bellingham
Yellow Card
Saibari
Gnabry
Goal cancelled
Laimer
Stanišić
Yellow Card
Kane
Missed Penalty
Guirassy
Assist: Chukwuemeka
Upamecano
Assist: Kane
Chukwuemeka
Beier
Laimer
Yellow Card
Nmecha
Olise
Bellingham
Kouakou Joane Gadou
Fábio Silva
Assist: Karetsas
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +19 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +8 | 16 |
Match Statistics
Bayern München
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2D. UpamecanoD
- 3Kim Min-JaeD
- 6J. KimmichM
- 7S. GnabryM
- 9H. KaneF
- 17M. OliseM
- 19A. DaviesD
- 27K. LaimerD
- 34I. SaibariM
- 40J. UrbigG
- 45A. PavlovićM
Substitutes
- 4J. TahD
- 8T. BischofM
- 11N. BrownD
- 21H. ItoD
- 23S. BoeyD
- 26S. UlreichG
- 42L. KarlM
- 44J. StanišićD
- 46T. BinderF
Borussia Dortmund
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1G. KobelG
- 3W. AntonD
- 4N. SchlotterbeckD
- 7J. BellinghamM
- 8F. NmechaM
- 9S. GuirassyF
- 14M. BeierM
- 17C. ChukwuemekaM
- 22Kouakou Joane GadouD
- 24D. SvenssonM
- 25J. VeermanM
Substitutes
- 5R. BensebaïniD
- 18E. NwaneriM
- 19K. KaretsasM
- 20M. SabitzerM
- 21Fábio SilvaF
- 26J. RyersonD
- 33A. MeyerG
- 39F. ManéD
- 40S. InacioF
Bayern München
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Upamecano | D | 90 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| K. Laimer | D | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0/1 |
| A. Davies | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 5/11 |
| A. Pavlović | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kim Min-Jae | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Kane | F | 90 | 6.8 | — | 1 | 6 | — | 1 | — |
| J. Urbig | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Kimmich | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 3 | — |
| J. Stanišić | D | 59 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| M. Olise | M | 84 | 6.4 | — | — | 5 | — | 4 | 0/2 |
| L. Karl | M | 6 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Gnabry | M | 31 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| N. Brown | D | 61 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| I. Saibari | M | 29 | 5.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| J. Tah | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Ito | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Binder | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Bischof | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Ulreich | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Boey | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Borussia Dortmund
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fábio Silva | F | 14 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | — |
| S. Guirassy | F | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| N. Schlotterbeck | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| C. Chukwuemeka | M | 67 | 6.7 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 2 | — |
| Kouakou Joane Gadou | D | 87 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| S. Inacio | F | 3 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Nmecha | M | 76 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| J. Veerman | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Kobel | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Bellingham | M | 87 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | 1/2 |
| W. Anton | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Beier | M | 67 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/3 |
| M. Sabitzer | M | 23 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| D. Svensson | M | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| K. Karetsas | M | 23 | 5.8 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Ryerson | D | 3 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Bensebaïni | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Nwaneri | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Mané | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Meyer | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Bayern München to win against Borussia Dortmund.
- What score did Fipster predict for Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Bayern München 2–0 Borussia Dortmund.
- What were the win probabilities for Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
- Fipster's model gave Bayern München a 79% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 10% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 79% confidence — a high-confidence call.