Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart
Stuttgart stuns Leverkusen with four-goal blitz
Demirović's brace and early strikes set the tone for a surprise away win.
VfB Stuttgart turned the Bundesliga fixture on its head with a commanding 4-2 victory at Bayer Leverkusen. Early goals from E. Demirović and J. Leweling gave Stuttgart a strong foothold, and Demirović's second-half strike sealed the deal despite Leverkusen's efforts from P. Schick and I. Maza. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a Leverkusen clean sheet and home win, proving the visitors' firepower was too much on the day.
Outcome probability
Bayer Leverkusen, also known as the Werkself, face off against VfB Stuttgart in a Bundesliga regular season fixture. With Leverkusen sitting comfortably in 4th place and Stuttgart struggling near the bottom, this match promises a clear favourite.
Match factors
Leverkusen's midfield creativity vs Stuttgart's defense
Aleix García's high passing accuracy and key passes provide Leverkusen a creative edge to unlock Stuttgart's defense
Leverkusen's home scoring form
Leverkusen averages 2.7 goals per home game with multiple players contributing goals and assists
P. Schick's recent goal involvement
Schick has scored and assisted in recent home matches, showing strong form and finishing ability
Stuttgart missing key attackers
Stuttgart's top attackers like Christian Kofane are confirmed out, weakening their offensive threat
Stuttgart's defensive stalwart Mittelstädt to challenge Leverkusen
Mittelstädt's high tackle and interception rates make him crucial to disrupting Leverkusen's attack
The context
Leverkusen have the upper hand historically, winning 11 of their 20 encounters with Stuttgart. Currently, Leverkusen boast a +7 goal difference and 13 points from 6 games, while Stuttgart languish with a -3 goal difference and just 6 points from 7 games. The Werkself's home scoring form is impressive, averaging 2.7 goals per game, which adds weight to their advantage.
Key insights
- A
Aleix García
Bayer Leverkusen
Aleix García's exceptional passing accuracy and creativity provide Leverkusen with a key advantage to unlock Stuttgart's defence.
Bundesliga 26/2792% passing accuracy, 0.29 assists per game
- P
Patrik Schick
Bayer Leverkusen
Patrik Schick's recent goal involvement and strong finishing make him a crucial threat in Leverkusen's attack.
Bundesliga 26/27Multiple goals and assists in recent home matches
Ermedin Demirović
VfB Stuttgart
Despite Stuttgart's struggles, Demirović remains their leading scorer and main offensive threat.
Bundesliga 26/273 goals in 7 appearances, 0.43 goals per game
- M
Maximilian Mittelstädt
VfB Stuttgart
Mittelstädt's defensive work rate and tackling are vital for Stuttgart to try and contain Leverkusen's attack.
Bundesliga 26/272.5 tackles per game, 70.5% duel win rate
Analysis
Leverkusen's midfield creativity, led by Aleix García with a 92% passing accuracy, provides a significant tactical edge. Forward Patrik Schick has been in fine form, contributing multiple goals and assists recently at home. Stuttgart's defence will rely heavily on Maximilian Mittelstädt, a top tackler with a 70.5% duel win rate, but the absence of key attackers like Christian Kofane weakens their offensive threat. Stuttgart's leading scorer Ermedin Demirović, with 3 goals this season, faces a tough challenge against a well-organised Leverkusen side.
Key facts
- 1.Bayer Leverkusen have won 11 of 20 matches against VfB Stuttgart.
- 2.Average goals in head-to-head matches is 3.3, with Leverkusen scoring 39 goals.
- 3.Leverkusen rank 4th with 13 points; Stuttgart rank 15th with 6 points.
- 4.Leverkusen have a +7 goal difference; Stuttgart have -3.
- 5.Leverkusen average 2.7 goals per home game this season.
- 6.Stuttgart's top scorer Ermedin Demirović has 3 goals this season.
- 7.Leverkusen's Aleix García has a 92% passing accuracy this season.
- 8.Maximilian Mittelstädt averages 2.5 tackles per game for Stuttgart.
Prediction
Expect Bayer Leverkusen to take control early, leading 2-0 at halftime and extending their dominance to a 4-0 fulltime victory. The match is likely to see around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter. Leverkusen's superior form, goal difference, and home advantage make this a straightforward call.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Bayer Leverkusen
No standout top scorers flagged for Bayer Leverkusen
Away — VfB Stuttgart
The verdict
In summary, the Werkself are poised to deliver a commanding performance against Stuttgart. Their attacking depth and midfield creativity should dismantle Stuttgart's defence, securing a comfortable win and reinforcing their strong league position.
Prediction generated 25 Oct 2026, 16:32 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Demirović
Fernández
Yellow Card
Yellow Card
Leweling
Schick
Assist: García
García
Yellow Card
Jaquez
Yellow Card
Medina
Yellow Card
Chabot
Yellow Card
El Khannouss
Assist: Führich
Maza
Yellow Card
Karazor
Yellow Card
Vázquez
Demirović
Yellow Card
Führich
Demirović
Assist: Undav
Jaquez
Undav
Moreira
Fernández
Maza
Assist: Gutiérrez
García
Leweling
El Khannouss
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +19 | 18 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 10 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
Match Statistics
Bayer Leverkusen
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1M. FlekkenG
- 2F. MedinaD
- 3Miguel GutiérrezD
- 4J. QuansahD
- 6E. FernándezM
- 9Afonso MoreiraM
- 12E. TapsobaD
- 14P. SchickF
- 17Lucas VázquezM
- 24Aleix GarcíaM
- 30I. MazaM
Substitutes
- 7J. HofmannM
- 8R. AndrichM
- 10M. TillmanM
- 15T. OermannD
- 22V. BonifaceF
- 28J. BlaswichG
- 42M. CulbreathM
VfB Stuttgart
3-4-1-2Starting XI
- 3R. HendriksD
- 9E. DemirovićF
- 10C. FührichM
- 11B. El KhannoussM
- 14L. JaquezD
- 16A. KarazorM
- 18J. LewelingM
- 21G. PrömelM
- 24J. ChabotD
- 26D. UndavF
- 41D. SeimenG
Substitutes
- 1F. BredlowG
- 2A. Al DakhilD
- 7M. MittelstädtD
- 8Tiago TomásF
- 17D. PejčinovićF
- 22L. AssignonD
- 28N. NarteyM
- 29Finn JeltschD
- 47Y. SpaltD
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Schick | F | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 6 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Aleix García | M | 83 | 7.5 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| I. Maza | M | 90 | 7.4 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3/6 |
| Miguel Gutiérrez | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| V. Boniface | F | 7 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| J. Hofmann | M | 28 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Afonso Moreira | M | 75 | 6.3 | — | — | 6 | 3 | 1 | — |
| E. Tapsoba | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Quansah | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| F. Medina | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| R. Andrich | M | 14 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| E. Fernández | M | 76 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| M. Tillman | M | 15 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Flekken | G | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Vázquez | M | 62 | 5.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| M. Culbreath | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Oermann | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Blaswich | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Demirović | F | 90 | 8.8 | 2 | — | 3 | 3 | — | 2/3 |
| B. El Khannouss | M | 85 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| D. Undav | F | 72 | 7.6 | — | 1 | 3 | — | 5 | — |
| J. Leweling | M | 85 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | 3/3 |
| C. Führich | M | 65 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 4 | 3/5 |
| D. Seimen | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Pejčinović | F | 5 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Jaquez | D | 65 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| A. Karazor | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. Mittelstädt | D | 25 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Finn Jeltsch | D | 25 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Prömel | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| N. Nartey | M | 18 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| A. Al Dakhil | D | 5 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Hendriks | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Chabot | D | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Tiago Tomás | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Assignon | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Bredlow | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Spalt | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Bayer Leverkusen to win against VfB Stuttgart.
- What score did Fipster predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Bayer Leverkusen 4–0 VfB Stuttgart.
- What were the win probabilities for Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
- Fipster's model gave Bayer Leverkusen a 95% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.