Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg
Leverkusen edge Freiburg in tight tussle
A late strike from Patrik Schick seals a narrow win for the home side.
Bayer Leverkusen secured a 2-1 victory over SC Freiburg in a closely contested Bundesliga clash. Freiburg took an early lead through D. Scherhant at 14 minutes, but I. Maza quickly levelled for Leverkusen five minutes later. The match was ultimately decided after the break when P. Schick found the net at 76 minutes. While Fipster predicted a more comfortable 3-0 win for Leverkusen, the call for a home victory was spot on.
Outcome probability
Bayer Leverkusen, also known as the Werkself, face SC Freiburg in the sixth round of the regular season. Both teams have shown solid form, but Leverkusen's home performances and attacking prowess give them the edge in this encounter.
Match factors
Leverkusen's wide defenders create strong assist threat
Miguel Gutiérrez leads with 3 assists and high passing accuracy, providing quality service to attackers
Patrik Schick's prolific scoring form boosts Leverkusen's attack
Schick has scored 5 goals in last 5 games, well above league average for attackers
Leverkusen's consistent scoring streak at home
Team has scored in all recent home games, averaging 3 goals per home match
Freiburg missing key defenders weakens their defense
Two defenders confirmed out, reducing defensive stability against Leverkusen's attack
The context
Leverkusen currently sit fourth in the league with 10 points from five games, while Freiburg are just above them in third with 10 points from four games. Historically, Leverkusen have the upper hand in their head-to-head meetings, having won nine of the 20 encounters against Freiburg's four wins, with seven draws.
Key insights
Miguel Gutiérrez
Bayer Leverkusen
Leverkusen's wide defender leads with 3 assists and high passing accuracy, creating quality chances from wide areas.
Bundesliga 26/273 assists this season, 1.5 assists/game at home
Patrik Schick
Bayer Leverkusen
Schick’s prolific scoring form with 5 goals in last 5 games boosts Leverkusen’s attacking threat.
Bundesliga 26/275 goals in last 5 games, 4 this season in 4 appearances
Analysis
The Werkself boast a strong home record and have consistently scored in recent home matches, averaging three goals per game. Their attack is spearheaded by Patrik Schick, who has netted five goals in his last five games. Defensively, Freiburg are weakened by the absence of key defenders, which could be exploited by Leverkusen's wide defenders, particularly Miguel Gutiérrez, who leads the team with three assists this season. The statistical edge and tactical setup favour a comfortable home win.
Key facts
- 1.Bayer Leverkusen have won 9 of 20 matches against SC Freiburg, who have won 4, with 7 draws.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 3.0 goals, with Leverkusen scoring 37 and Freiburg 23 in total.
- 3.Leverkusen are 4th in the league with 10 points from 5 games; Freiburg are 3rd with 10 points from 4 games.
- 4.Leverkusen have scored in all recent home games, averaging 3 goals per home match.
- 5.Patrik Schick has scored 5 goals in his last 5 games, leading Leverkusen's attack.
- 6.Miguel Gutiérrez leads Leverkusen with 3 assists this season, excelling at home.
- 7.Freiburg are missing two key defenders, weakening their defensive stability.
Prediction
We expect Bayer Leverkusen to take an early lead, going into halftime 1-0. They should continue to press in the second half, ultimately securing a 3-0 victory. The match is also likely to see around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled game.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Bayer Leverkusen
Away — SC Freiburg
No standout top scorers flagged for SC Freiburg
The verdict
With their attacking firepower and home advantage, Bayer Leverkusen look set to claim a convincing win over SC Freiburg. Patrik Schick and Miguel Gutiérrez will be key players to watch as the Werkself aim to extend their strong home form.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:07 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Scherhant
Assist: Treu
Maza
Assist: Schick
Treu
Yellow Card
Moreira
Treu
Goto
Diaby
Schick
Assist: Maza
Beste
Engelhardt
Maza
Scherhant
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +19 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +8 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | +11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
Match Statistics
Bayer Leverkusen
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1M. FlekkenG
- 2F. MedinaD
- 3Miguel GutiérrezD
- 4J. QuansahD
- 6E. FernándezM
- 9Afonso MoreiraM
- 12E. TapsobaD
- 14P. SchickF
- 19M. DiabyM
- 24Aleix GarcíaM
- 30I. MazaM
Substitutes
- 5L. BadéD
- 7J. HofmannM
- 8R. AndrichM
- 10M. TillmanM
- 15T. OermannD
- 17Lucas VázquezD
- 22V. BonifaceF
- 23N. TellaF
- 28J. BlaswichG
SC Freiburg
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1M. BackhausG
- 3P. LienhartD
- 7D. ScherhantM
- 8M. EggesteinM
- 16Y. EngelhardtM
- 19J. BesteM
- 28M. GinterD
- 29P. TreuD
- 31I. MatanovićF
- 33J. MakengoD
- 42K. GotoM
Substitutes
- 6P. OsterhageM
- 9L. HölerF
- 17L. KüblerD
- 20R. YamamotoM
- 21F. MüllerG
- 22Cyriaque Kalou IriéF
- 30C. GünterD
- 32V. GrifoM
- 37M. RosenfelderD
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Schick | F | 90 | 8.7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0/2 |
| I. Maza | M | 84 | 8.5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1/3 |
| M. Flekken | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Tapsoba | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aleix García | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Fernández | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| N. Tella | F | 31 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Miguel Gutiérrez | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| F. Medina | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| J. Quansah | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Afonso Moreira | M | 59 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| M. Diaby | M | 73 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| M. Tillman | M | 17 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Hofmann | M | 6 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Andrich | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Badé | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Oermann | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Vázquez | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Blaswich | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Boniface | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
SC Freiburg
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Scherhant | M | 89 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| P. Lienhart | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Makengo | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| M. Backhaus | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Treu | D | 64 | 6.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Ginter | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Cyriaque Kalou Irié | F | 13 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 2/3 |
| M. Eggestein | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| J. Beste | M | 77 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| L. Höler | F | 25 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Kübler | D | 26 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Osterhage | M | 13 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| I. Matanović | F | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 3 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Y. Engelhardt | M | 77 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| V. Grifo | M | 1 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Goto | M | 65 | 5.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| R. Yamamoto | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Rosenfelder | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Günter | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Müller | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Bayer Leverkusen to win against SC Freiburg.
- What score did Fipster predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Bayer Leverkusen 3–0 SC Freiburg.
- What were the win probabilities for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
- Fipster's model gave Bayer Leverkusen a 95% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.