Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV
Match recap
Bayer Leverkusen and Hamburger SV drew 1–1 in their Bundesliga fixture. Quansah scored for Bayer Leverkusen; Fábio Vieira replied for Hamburger SV. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 3.27 for Bayer Leverkusen versus 1.79 for Hamburger SV. Bayer Leverkusen sit 6th in the Bundesliga table while Hamburger SV are 13th.
Analysis
As the Bundesliga season nears its climax, Bayer Leverkusen host Hamburger SV in what promises to be a closely contested fixture. Leverkusen's home advantage and recent scoring streak set the stage for an exciting encounter.
Leverkusen currently sit comfortably in 6th place with 58 points, boasting a superior goal difference and points per game compared to Hamburger SV, who are 11th with 37 points. Historically, Leverkusen have dominated this matchup, winning 10 of 18 meetings.
Leverkusen's attacking prowess at home is evident, scoring an average of 2.31 goals per game. Patrik Schick leads the charge with 15 goals in his last 10 matches and a strong home scoring record. Midfield maestros Aleix García and Alejandro Grimaldo provide creative support, combining for 15 assists this season. Defensively, the team remains solid with key players like Edmond Tapsoba and Jarell Quansah maintaining high performance levels.
Prediction
The forecast is a 2-1 victory for Bayer Leverkusen, with a halftime lead of 1-0. The match is expected to feature four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled game. Confidence in this prediction is high at 95%, supported by consistent form and statistical advantages.
Outcome probability
Match factors
Leverkusen's potent home attack
Leverkusen scores 2.31 goals per home game, with key attackers in strong form
Schick's scoring consistency
Schick has scored in 5 consecutive home games, boosting scoring probability
Leverkusen's scoring streak
Team has scored in last 5 home matches, indicating strong offensive momentum
García and Grimaldo's creative link
Both midfielders have high assist rates and strong connection with forwards
No key injuries for Leverkusen
Full squad availability supports stable lineup and tactical consistency
Key Takeaways
In summary, Bayer Leverkusen's home strength, combined with their attacking and defensive stability, makes them favourites to claim all three points against Hamburger SV. Expect a spirited contest but ultimately a home win to close the regular season.
- Bayer Leverkusen have won 10 of 18 meetings against Hamburger SV.
- Leverkusen rank 6th with 58 points; Hamburger SV 11th with 37 points.
- Leverkusen's goal difference (+35) significantly outpaces Hamburger SV.
- Leverkusen average 2.31 goals per home game this season.
- Patrik Schick has scored 15 goals in his last 10 matches.
- Aleix García leads Leverkusen with 8 assists this season.
- Leverkusen have scored in their last 5 home matches.
- Predicted total cards for the match is 4.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Bayer Leverkusen
Away — Hamburger SV
No standout top scorers flagged for Hamburger SV
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Torunarigha
Yellow Card
Fábio Vieira
Assist: Capaldo
Andrich
Tillman
Culbreath
Philippe
Arthur
Yellow Card
Emerson Stange
Fábio Vieira
Omari
Capaldo
Yellow Card
Quansah
Assist: García
García
Torunarigha
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 34 | 28 | 5 | 1 | +86 | 89 |
| 5 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | +13 | 61 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | +21 | 59 |
| 7 |  SC Freiburg | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 47 |
| 12 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 13 |  Hamburger SV | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | -14 | 38 |
| 14 |  1. FC Köln | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | -14 | 32 |
Match Statistics
Bayer Leverkusen
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1M. FlekkenG
- 4J. QuansahD
- 8R. AndrichD
- 10M. TillmanF
- 12E. TapsobaD
- 14P. SchickF
- 20Álex GrimaldoM
- 24Aleix GarcíaM
- 25E. PalaciosM
- 30I. MazaF
- 42M. CulbreathM
Substitutes
- 5L. BadéD
- 6E. FernándezM
- 7J. HofmannM
- 13ArthurD
- 15T. OermannD
- 17E. Ben SeghirF
- 19E. PokuF
- 21Lucas VázquezD
- 28J. BlaswichG
Hamburger SV
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 6A. Sambi LokongaM
- 12S. TangvikG
- 14R. PhilippeF
- 17W. OmariD
- 20Fábio VieiraF
- 21N. RembergM
- 23A. GrønbækM
- 24N. CapaldoM
- 25J. TorunarighaD
- 44L. VuškovićD
- 49Otto Emerson StangeF
Substitutes
- 1Daniel Heuer FernandesG
- 2W. MikelbrencisD
- 8Daniel ElfadliM
- 15Y. PoulsenF
- 16G. GocholeishviliD
- 18B. JattaM
- 28M. MuheimD
- 43S. NandjaD
- 45Fabio Amadu Uri BaldéF
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarell Quansah | D | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| Exequiel Palacios | M | 90 | 8.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Aleix García | M | 84 | 8.0 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 3 | — |
| Edmond Tapsoba | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Malik Tillman | F | 62 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Montrell Culbreath | M | 62 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Mark Flekken | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robert Andrich(C) | D | 62 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Alejandro Grimaldo | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Ibrahim Maza | F | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2/3 |
| Patrik Schick | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 4 | 3 | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Loïc Badé | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ernest Poku | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tim Oermann | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Janis Blaswich | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ezequiel Fernández | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eliesse Ben Seghir | F | 28 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3/3 |
| Arthur | D | 28 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Jonas Hofmann | M | 28 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Lucas Vázquez | D | 15 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
Hamburger SV
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sander Tangvik | G | 90 | 8.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fábio Vieira | F | 77 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0/2 |
| Nicolás Capaldo(C) | M | 90 | 7.5 | — | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1/1 |
| Warmed Omari | D | 77 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luka Vušković | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 2/3 |
| Albert Sambi Lokonga | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Nicolai Remberg | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Albert Grønbæk | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Rayan Philippe | F | 63 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Otto Stange | F | 77 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jordan Torunarigha | D | 89 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Giorgi Gocholeishvili | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Fernandes | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Elfadli | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bakery Jatta | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabio Baldé | F | 13 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Yussuf Poulsen | F | 13 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| William Mikelbrencis | D | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Shafiq Nandja | D | 13 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miro Muheim | D | 27 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |