Barcelona vs Alaves
Match recap
Barcelona beat Alaves 6–1 in their La Liga fixture. Raphinha, Fermín, Raphinha, Yamal, Yamal, and Gordon scored for Barcelona; Díaz replied for Alaves. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 3.24 for Barcelona versus 0.58 for Alaves. Barcelona sit 1st in the La Liga table while Alaves are 7th.
Outcome probability
Barcelona, known affectionately as the Blaugrana, look poised to extend their impressive run this season as they face Alaves in the 11th round of the regular season. With a commanding league position and a potent attack, the stage is set for a one-sided affair.
Match factors
Barcelona's defensive depth tested by multiple absences
Key defenders Eric García, Dani Olmo, and others are out, weakening defensive stability
Barcelona's strong recent scoring form
Barcelona has scored in all last 9 matches with an average of 4 goals per game
Alaves' Lucas Boyé is a consistent goal threat
Boyé has 5 goals in 9 games, outperforming league average attackers
Barcelona's midfield passing superiority
Rodri and Pedri show passing accuracy and volume well above league averages, controlling play
Alaves' defensive resilience led by Tenaglia
Tenaglia's tackling and interceptions are key to resisting Barcelona's attack
The context
Barcelona currently sit top of the league with 24 points from 8 games, boasting a goal difference of +27. Alaves, in contrast, are placed 7th with 11 points. Historically, Barcelona have dominated this fixture, winning 14 of their 18 encounters against Alaves, adding further weight to their favour in this match.
Key insights
Lucas Boyé
Alaves
Boyé is a consistent goal threat for Alaves, leading their scoring charts with 5 goals in 9 games despite the team's struggles.
La Liga 26/275 goals in 9 appearances
- R
Rodri
Barcelona
Rodri's exceptional passing accuracy and volume help Barcelona control the midfield and dictate the game's tempo.
La Liga 26/2795% passing accuracy with high passing volume
- N
Nahuel Tenaglia
Alaves
Tenaglia's tackling and interceptions are crucial for Alaves' defensive resilience against Barcelona's attack.
La Liga 26/2724 tackles this season
Analysis
Barcelona's recent form is nothing short of spectacular, having scored in every one of their last nine matches with an average of four goals per game. Their midfield, led by Rodri and Pedri, controls play with exceptional passing accuracy and volume, creating numerous chances. Despite some defensive absences, their attacking prowess is expected to overwhelm Alaves. On the other side, Alaves rely heavily on Lucas Boyé, their top scorer with 5 goals, but the gap in quality and form is evident. Alaves' defensive resilience, anchored by Nahuel Tenaglia, will be tested severely by Barcelona's relentless attack.
Key facts
- 1.Barcelona are top of the league with 24 points from 8 games.
- 2.Alaves sit 7th with 11 points from 8 games.
- 3.Barcelona have a goal difference of +27, significantly better than Alaves.
- 4.Barcelona have won 14 of 18 head-to-head matches against Alaves.
- 5.Barcelona have scored in all of their last 9 matches, averaging 4 goals per game.
- 6.Lucas Boyé is Alaves' top scorer with 5 goals in 9 appearances.
- 7.Rodri and Pedri lead Barcelona's midfield with high passing accuracy and volume.
- 8.Nahuel Tenaglia is a key defensive figure for Alaves with 24 tackles this season.
Prediction
We anticipate Barcelona to take an early lead, going into halftime 2-0 up. The Blaugrana should maintain their dominance in the second half, extending their advantage to a 4-0 victory. The match is also expected to see a moderate number of disciplinary actions, with around four cards likely to be shown.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Barcelona
No standout top scorers flagged for Barcelona
Away — Alaves
The verdict
In summary, Barcelona's superior form, tactical control, and historical edge make them overwhelming favourites to secure a comfortable win over Alaves. Fans can expect a commanding performance from the Blaugrana, with key players like Raphinha and Lamine Yamal likely to shine.
Prediction generated 25 Oct 2026, 22:01 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Raphinha
Assist: Fermín
Fermín
Assist: Yamal
Benavídez
Yellow Card
Pedri
Yellow Card
Raphinha
Assist: Fermín
Yamal
Assist: João Cancelo
Pérez
Yellow Card
Benavídez
Pedri
Suárez
Rebbach
João Cancelo
Yellow Card
Ibáñez
Yellow Card
João Cancelo
Raphinha
Goal confirmed
Yamal
Assist: Gabriel Jesus
Pérez
Yamal
Boyé
Gordon
Assist: Rodri
de Jong
Díaz
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 6 |  Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 |  Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
Match Statistics
Barcelona
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1Joan GarcíaG
- 2João CanceloD
- 4B. FarinasD
- 5Pau Cubarsí ParedesD
- 7FermínM
- 8PedriM
- 10Lamine YamalF
- 11RaphinhaF
- 14K. AdeyemiF
- 16RodriM
- 21F. de JongD
Substitutes
- 3Alejandro BaldeD
- 6GaviM
- 9Gabriel JesusF
- 13W. SzczęsnyG
- 17A. GordonF
- 18Gerard MartínD
- 22Marc BernalM
- 25D. LivakovićG
- 29H. AbdelkarimF
- 30E. TunkaraM
- 41A. CamposD
Alaves
4-5-1Starting XI
- 1SiveraG
- 3YusiD
- 4Denis SuárezM
- 6GuevaraM
- 7Angel PérezM
- 14N. TenagliaD
- 15L. BoyéF
- 16V. KoskiD
- 17JonnyD
- 21A. RebbachM
- 23C. BenavídezM
Substitutes
- 2N. ValentiniD
- 8Antonio BlancoM
- 9M. DíazF
- 10Carles AleñáM
- 11Toni MartínezF
- 12Hugo NovoaF
- 13A. GiménezG
- 19Pablo IbáñezM
- 20Aitor MañasF
- 22Miguel RodríguezF
- 24Selu DialloM
- 27X. OlaizD
Barcelona
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fermín | M | 90 | 9.5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1/2 |
| Lamine Yamal | F | 74 | 9.2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3/5 |
| Raphinha | F | 62 | 8.7 | 2 | — | 3 | 2 | — | — |
| Rodri | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Gordon | F | 16 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Pau Cubarsí Paredes | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| B. Farinas | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Jesus | F | 28 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Joan García | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. de Jong | D | 82 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Cancelo | D | 62 | 6.8 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Marc Bernal | M | 44 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alejandro Balde | D | 28 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedri | M | 46 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Adeyemi | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Gerard Martín | D | 8 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Campos | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Abdelkarim | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gavi | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Livaković | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| W. Szczęsny | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Tunkara | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Alaves
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Díaz | F | 16 | 7.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Guevara | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Denis Suárez | M | 55 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| Toni Martínez | F | 44 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Angel Pérez | M | 74 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| L. Boyé | F | 74 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Hugo Novoa | F | 16 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aitor Mañas | F | 35 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| Pablo Ibáñez | M | 35 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Sivera | G | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| V. Koski | D | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Benavídez | M | 46 | 5.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| N. Tenaglia | D | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Rebbach | M | 55 | 5.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Yusi | D | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonny | D | 90 | 5.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Antonio Blanco | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Giménez | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carles Aleñá | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Rodríguez | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Selu Diallo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Valentini | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| X. Olaiz | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Barcelona vs Alaves?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Barcelona to win against Alaves.
- What score did Fipster predict for Barcelona vs Alaves?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Barcelona 4–0 Alaves.
- What were the win probabilities for Barcelona vs Alaves?
- Fipster's model gave Barcelona a 95% chance of winning, Alaves a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.