Bahia vs Vitoria
Match recap
Bahia and Vitoria drew 1–1 in their Serie A fixture. Jean Lucas scored for Bahia; Ramon replied for Vitoria. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.97 for Bahia versus 0.43 for Vitoria. Bahia sit 7th in the Serie A table while Vitoria are 14th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-1 Bahia win
Actual
1–1
Outcome probability
Bahia and Vitoria face off in the fifth round of the regular season, with Bahia looking to extend their strong league position and Vitoria aiming to climb the table. Both teams have shown moments of promise, but the scales tip heavily in favour of Bahia given their recent performances and squad strengths.
Match factors
Bahia's attacking defenders pose scoring threat
Luciano Juba leads Bahia with 9 goals, unusual for a defender, adding extra attacking dimension.
Vitoria's top scorer Rene in hot form
Rene has 9 goals this season with 4 in last 5 games, making him a key threat despite away disadvantage.
Bahia's offensive midfielders showing recent scoring uptick
Erick and Jean Lucas have scored multiple goals in last 5 games, boosting Bahia's goal potential.
Vitoria missing key midfielder Gabriel Baralhas
Gabriel Baralhas is out with broken leg, weakening Vitoria's midfield creativity and defensive cover.
Bahia's creative midfielders likely to supply assists
Éverton Ribeiro and Jean Lucas have solid assist records and key passes, enhancing scoring chances.
The context
In their 20 previous encounters, Bahia have edged ahead with 8 wins compared to Vitoria's 4, while 8 matches ended in draws. Currently, Bahia sit 6th in the league with 46 points from 29 games, boasting a healthy goal difference of +17. Vitoria find themselves 12th with 36 points, reflecting a more inconsistent campaign.
Key insights
Luciano Juba
Bahia
Luciano Juba leads Bahia with 9 goals this season, adding an unusual attacking threat from defence.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 25 appearances, 0.36 avg per game
Rene
Vitoria
Rene is Vitoria's main attacking threat with 9 goals, including 4 in the last 5 games, showing excellent form.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 23 appearances, 0.39 avg per game
- E
Erick
Bahia
Midfielder Erick has contributed 4 goals this season, with a recent scoring uptick boosting Bahia's attack.
Serie A 26/274 goals in 22 appearances, 0.18 avg per game
Éverton Ribeiro
Bahia
Creative midfielder Éverton Ribeiro provides key assists and playmaking, enhancing Bahia's goal chances.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 19 appearances, 0.21 avg per game
Analysis
Bahia's attacking threat is amplified by the remarkable scoring form of defender Luciano Juba, who has netted 9 goals this season, an impressive tally for a defender. Midfielders like Erick and Jean Lucas have also contributed crucial goals and assists, adding depth to Bahia's offensive options. Vitoria's main danger comes from striker Rene, who has 9 goals and is in fine form, but the absence of key midfielder Gabriel Baralhas due to injury weakens their midfield creativity and defensive cover. The predicted 2-0 halftime lead for Bahia aligns with their strong home form and attacking momentum, setting the stage for a dominant second half.
Key facts
- 1.Bahia have won 8 of 20 head-to-head matches against Vitoria, who have won 4.
- 2.Bahia are 6th in the league with 46 points from 29 games (W12 D10 L7).
- 3.Vitoria are 12th with 36 points from 29 games (W10 D6 L13).
- 4.Bahia have a superior goal difference of +17 compared to Vitoria.
- 5.Luciano Juba is Bahia's top scorer with 9 goals this season, an unusual feat for a defender.
- 6.Vitoria's top scorer Rene has 9 goals, including 4 in the last 5 games.
- 7.Gabriel Baralhas is out injured for Vitoria, impacting their midfield strength.
Prediction
Expect Bahia to assert their dominance early, taking a 2-0 lead into halftime and cruising to a 4-1 victory by full time. The match is likely to feature a handful of cards, with four being the most probable count, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Bahia
Away — Vitoria
The verdict
Bahia's blend of attacking defenders and creative midfielders, combined with Vitoria's injury setbacks, points to a comfortable home win. Fans can anticipate an entertaining match with Bahia firmly in control throughout.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:31 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Lucas Arcanjo
Yellow Card
Goal cancelled
Ramos
Yellow Card
Jean Lucas
Assist: Willian José
Ramon
Kayzer
Marinho
Pulga
Willian José
Edu
Matheuzinho
Erick
Olivera
Rodrigo Nestor
Ramon
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 |  Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | +5 | 49 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
Match Statistics
Bahia
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1RonaldoG
- 3Gabriel XavierD
- 5N. AcevedoD
- 6Jean LucasM
- 11Rodrigo NestorM
- 12Willian JoséF
- 14ErickM
- 16Erick PulgaF
- 21S. RamosD
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 99C. OliveraF
Substitutes
- 7AdemirF
- 15M. AraújoM
- 23M. SanabriaF
- 25IagoD
- 27EveraldoF
- 31Roman GomezD
- 34João PauloG
- 43Luiz GustavoD
- 44Marcos VictorD
- 63David MartinsM
- 67Wendel SilvaM
- 89DellF
Vitoria
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 6E. MartínezM
- 7MarinhoF
- 10MatheuzinhoF
- 13RamonD
- 25CacáD
- 43EduD
- 44Gabriel BaralhasM
- 45NathanD
- 79Renato KayzerF
- 95CaíqueM
Substitutes
- 4CamutangaD
- 8RonaldM
- 11OsvaldoF
- 17Aitor CantalapiedraF
- 22Gabriel VasconcelosG
- 23FabrícioF
- 26EdenilsonM
- 28AndersonM
- 31R. LópezF
- 33ErickF
- 83JamersonD
- 98MateusinhoD
Bahia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Lucas | M | 90 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 1/2 |
| Erick Pulga | F | 61 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Erick | M | 74 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Gabriel Xavier | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cristian Olivera | F | 74 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Nicolás Acevedo | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Willian José(C) | F | 62 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | — |
| Rodrigo Nestor | M | 89 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 3/4 |
| Ronaldo | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Santiago Ramos Mingo | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luciano Juba | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Iago Borduchi | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Victor | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Paulo | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wendel Passos | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luiz Gustavo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Román Gómez | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dell | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Everaldo | F | 28 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateo Sanabria | F | 29 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| David Martins | M | 9 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Michel Araújo | M | 16 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Ademir | F | 16 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
Vitoria
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramon | D | 89 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| Cacá | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Lucas Arcanjo | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheuzinho | F | 71 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 4/6 |
| Edu | D | 71 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Caique Gonçalves | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marinho | F | 61 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Baralhas(C) | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Nathan Mendes | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Renato Kayzer | F | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Emmanuel Martínez | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Jamerson | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Edenilson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateusinho | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ronald | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Vasconcelos | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renzo López | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Osvaldo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Anderson Pato | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aitor Cantalapiedra | F | 19 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Camutanga | D | 19 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Erick | F | 29 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabrício Santos | F | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Bahia vs Vitoria?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Bahia to win against Vitoria.
- What score did Fipster predict for Bahia vs Vitoria?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Bahia 4–1 Vitoria.
- What were the win probabilities for Bahia vs Vitoria?
- Fipster's model gave Bahia a 95% chance of winning, Vitoria a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.