Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama
Match recap
Bahia and Vasco DA Gama drew 0–0 in their Serie A fixture. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.53 for Bahia versus 0.65 for Vasco DA Gama. Bahia sit 7th in the Serie A table while Vasco DA Gama are 13th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-0 Bahia win
Actual
0–0
Outcome probability
Bahia and Vasco DA Gama face off in a regular season clash where the home side's strong league position and goal difference suggest a comfortable win. Expect Bahia to assert their attacking threat early and maintain control throughout.
Match factors
Luciano Juba's attacking threat from defense
Luciano Juba is a prolific scoring defender with 10 goals this season, providing Bahia a unique attacking edge from the back.
Rodrigo Nestor's creative influence
Rodrigo Nestor leads Bahia's assists with 3 this season and has 2 assists in last 5 games, boosting their goal creation chances.
Bahia's strong home scoring form
Bahia averages 1.53 goals per home game and has scored in 4 of last 5 home matches, supporting the predicted 3-0 win.
Vasco's reliance on Andrés Gómez for goals
Andrés Gómez is Vasco's top scorer with 5 goals and a key attacking midfielder, but overall team scoring is lower than Bahia's.
Bahia's defensive solidity at home
Bahia concedes only 0.93 goals per home game, indicating a strong defense likely to keep a clean sheet against Vasco.
The context
Bahia currently sit 5th in the league with 49 points from 30 games, boasting a healthy goal difference of +14. Vasco DA Gama, by contrast, are 14th with 35 points from 29 games and a less impressive goal difference. This gulf in form and league standing sets the stage for a tough outing for Vasco.
Key insights
Luciano Juba
Bahia
Luciano Juba is a prolific scoring defender with 10 goals this season, providing Bahia a unique attacking edge from the back.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 26 apps, 0.38 avg per game
Rodrigo Nestor
Bahia
Rodrigo Nestor leads Bahia's assists with 3 this season and has 2 assists in last 5 games, boosting their goal creation chances.
Serie A 26/273 assists in 23 apps, 0.13 avg per game
A. Gómez
Vasco DA Gama
Andrés Gómez is Vasco's top scorer with 5 goals and a key attacking midfielder, but overall team scoring is lower than Bahia's.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 25 apps, 0.2 avg per game
Analysis
Bahia's attacking edge is highlighted by defender Luciano Juba, who has netted 10 goals this season, an impressive tally for a defender. Midfielder Rodrigo Nestor's creative influence, with 3 assists and recent form, further boosts Bahia's goal threat. Vasco rely heavily on Andrés Gómez, their top scorer with 5 goals, but overall their scoring record lags behind. Defensively, Bahia concede less than one goal per home game, suggesting a clean sheet is on the cards.
Key facts
- 1.Bahia are ranked 5th with 49 points from 30 games.
- 2.Vasco DA Gama are 14th with 35 points from 29 games.
- 3.Bahia have a goal difference of +14, significantly better than Vasco's.
- 4.Luciano Juba is Bahia's top scorer with 10 goals this season.
- 5.Rodrigo Nestor leads Bahia's assists with 3 this season.
- 6.Vasco's top scorer Andrés Gómez has 5 goals this season.
- 7.Bahia concede only 0.93 goals per home game on average.
- 8.Predicted total cards in the match is 4.
Prediction
The prediction favours a Bahia home win with a 3-0 scoreline. A halftime lead of 1-0 is expected, building into a dominant second half performance. The match is also likely to see around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Bahia
Away — Vasco DA Gama
The verdict
In summary, Bahia's superior form, goal-scoring from defence, and solid home defence make them strong favourites to claim a comprehensive victory over Vasco DA Gama. Expect a confident performance that secures all three points comfortably.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 10:06 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Goal Disallowed - offside
Cuiabano
Yellow Card
Thiago Mendes
Yellow Card
Ademir
Cuesta
Juba
Brenner
Jean Lucas
Willian José
Adson
David
Ademir
Yellow Card
Jair
Rodrigo Nestor
Goal Disallowed - offside
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 |  Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | +5 | 49 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
Match Statistics
Bahia
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1RonaldoG
- 5N. AcevedoM
- 6Jean LucasM
- 7AdemirM
- 9A. VélizF
- 11Rodrigo NestorM
- 12Willian JoséF
- 21S. RamosD
- 31Roman GomezD
- 33David DuarteD
- 46Luciano JubaD
Substitutes
- 3Marco MorenoD
- 4KanuD
- 8Caio AlexandreM
- 15M. AraújoM
- 17G. HerreraG
- 23M. SanabriaF
- 27EveraldoF
- 44Marcos VictorD
- 57Çağatay YılmazM
- 63David MartinsM
- 66Zé GuilhermeD
- 99C. OliveraF
Vasco DA Gama
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Léo JardimG
- 3Tchê TchêM
- 7DavidM
- 8JairM
- 20BrennerF
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 28AdsonM
- 30Robert RenanD
- 46C. CuestaD
- 66CuiabanoD
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
Substitutes
- 2J. RodríguezD
- 4A. SaldiviaD
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 10J. RojasF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 18M. HinestrozaF
- 37PabloG
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 64WalaceD
- 77C. SpinelliF
- 83Ramon RiqueM
- 88Cauan BarrosM
Bahia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Román Gómez | D | 94 | 7.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| David Duarte | D | 94 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Santiago Ramos Mingo | D | 94 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Rodrigo Nestor | M | 86 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0/1 |
| Ronaldo | G | 94 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Willian José | F | 64 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolás Acevedo(C) | M | 94 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Jean Lucas | M | 64 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Alejo Véliz | F | 94 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Ademir | M | 43 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/4 |
| Luciano Juba | D | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| David Martins | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cristian Olivera | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marco Moreno | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Victor | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guido Herrera | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kanu | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Everaldo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateo Sanabria | F | 8 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Caio Alexandre | M | 30 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| José Guilherme | D | 49 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Kauê Furquim | M | 51 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Michel Araújo | M | 30 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
Vasco DA Gama
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Renan | D | 94 | 8.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Cuiabano | D | 94 | 7.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Jair | M | 86 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adson | M | 72 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Paulo Henrique | D | 94 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| Tchê Tchê | M | 94 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Carlos Cuesta | D | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Léo Jardim | G | 94 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Mendes(C) | M | 94 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Brenner | F | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| David | M | 74 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Daniel Fuzato | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Piton | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Walace | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Johan Rojas | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Freitas | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Puma Rodríguez | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marino Hinestroza | F | 49 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Alan Saldivia | D | 49 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cauan Barros | M | 8 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ramon Rique | M | 20 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Claudio Spinelli | F | 22 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Bahia to win against Vasco DA Gama.
- What score did Fipster predict for Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Bahia 3–0 Vasco DA Gama.
- What were the win probabilities for Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fipster's model gave Bahia a 95% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.