Bahia vs Santos
Match recap
Bahia and Santos drew 2–2 in their Serie A fixture. Juba and Willian José scored for Bahia; Rollheiser and Rollheiser replied for Santos. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.20 for Bahia versus 2.13 for Santos. Bahia sit 7th in the Serie A table while Santos are 8th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-1 Bahia win
Actual
2–2
Outcome probability
Bahia and Santos face off in what promises to be a competitive regular season match. Both sides have shown resilience, but Bahia's recent form and goal difference suggest they have the edge.
Match factors
Luciano Juba's offensive threat from defense
Luciano Juba is a rare high-scoring defender with 10 goals this season, providing Bahia an unusual attacking edge.
Gabriel Barbosa's prolific scoring form
Gabriel Barbosa leads Santos with 14 goals and has scored 4 in last 5 games, posing a major scoring threat.
Rodrigo Nestor's recent assist surge
Rodrigo Nestor has 2 assists in last 5 games, showing strong creative form for Bahia.
Neymar's dual threat as scorer and assister
Neymar contributes both goals (8) and assists (3), making him a key playmaker and finisher for Santos.
Full squad availability boosts attacking options
No confirmed injuries for either team, allowing full attacking lineups and tactical flexibility.
The context
Currently, Bahia sit 5th in the league with 49 points from 30 games, while Santos are 8th with 42 points. Bahia's superior goal difference by 7 goals highlights their stronger overall performance this season. Historically, Santos have won more head-to-head meetings, but recent form favours Bahia.
Key insights
Luciano Juba
Bahia
Luciano Juba is a rare high-scoring defender with 10 goals this season, providing Bahia an unusual attacking edge.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 26 appearances, 3 in last 5 games
- G
Gabriel Barbosa
Santos
Gabriel Barbosa leads Santos with 14 goals and has scored 4 in last 5 games, posing a major scoring threat.
Serie A 26/2714 goals in current season, 4 in last 5 games
Rodrigo Nestor
Bahia
Rodrigo Nestor has 2 assists in last 5 games, showing strong creative form for Bahia.
Serie A 26/273 assists in 23 appearances, 2 in last 5 games
- N
Neymar
Santos
Neymar contributes both goals (8) and assists (3), making him a key playmaker and finisher for Santos.
Serie A 26/278 goals and 3 assists this season
Analysis
Bahia's attacking threat is bolstered by defender Luciano Juba, who has an impressive 10 goals this season, making him a key player especially at home. Midfielder Rodrigo Nestor's recent assist form adds creativity to Bahia's play. Santos rely heavily on Gabriel Barbosa, their top scorer with 14 goals, and Neymar, who contributes both goals and assists. The match is expected to be closely contested, but Bahia's home advantage and stronger league standing give them a slight tactical edge.
Key facts
- 1.Bahia are 5th in the league with 49 points from 30 games (W13 D10 L7).
- 2.Santos are 8th with 42 points from 30 games (W11 D9 L10).
- 3.Bahia have a 7-goal superior goal difference compared to Santos this season.
- 4.In 20 head-to-head matches, Santos have won 10, Bahia 5, with 5 draws.
- 5.Head-to-head matches average 2.3 goals per game.
- 6.Luciano Juba is a top-scoring defender with 10 goals this season.
- 7.Gabriel Barbosa leads Santos with 14 goals this season.
- 8.Rodrigo Nestor has 2 assists in the last 5 games, showing good form.
Prediction
The prediction favours a Bahia win with a 2-1 scoreline. The halftime score is expected to be 1-1, reflecting a balanced start before Bahia pulls ahead. The match is likely to see around three cards, indicating a competitive but controlled game.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Bahia
Away — Santos
No standout top scorers flagged for Santos
The verdict
In summary, Bahia's combination of solid league form, key player contributions, and home advantage should see them narrowly overcome Santos. Expect a lively encounter with goals and tactical battles, but ultimately a home win to add to Bahia's points tally.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:57 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Pulga
Yellow Card
Penalty confirmed
Rollheiser
Penalty
Penalty confirmed
Rollheiser
Penalty
Xavier
Araújo
Diógenes
Yellow Card
Ramos
Yellow Card
Rollheiser
Thaciano
Caio Alexandre
Terceros
Yellow Card
Olivera
Juba
Rony
Gabriel Bontempo
Mayke
Yellow Card
Willian José
Assist: Pulga
João Schmidt
Escobar
Yellow Card
Pulga
Éverton Ribeiro
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 |  Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | +5 | 49 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 |  Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | +1 | 43 |
Match Statistics
Bahia
4-3-3Starting XI
- 3Gabriel XavierD
- 5N. AcevedoD
- 6Jean LucasM
- 8Caio AlexandreM
- 12Willian JoséF
- 15M. AraújoM
- 16Erick PulgaF
- 21S. RamosD
- 22Léo VieiraG
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 99C. OliveraF
Substitutes
- 2GilbertoD
- 4KanuD
- 7AdemirF
- 10Éverton RibeiroM
- 11Rodrigo NestorM
- 14ErickM
- 23M. SanabriaF
- 25IagoD
- 27EveraldoF
- 31Roman GomezD
- 57Çağatay YılmazM
Santos
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1DiógenesG
- 4Lucas VeríssimoD
- 5João SchmidtM
- 11RonyF
- 12MaykeD
- 16ThacianoM
- 26João Paulo AnaniasD
- 28C. OlivaM
- 31G. EscobarD
- 32B. RollheiserM
- 49Gabriel BontempoM
Substitutes
- 7Nikita SolodchenkoF
- 8T. RincónM
- 14Luan PeresD
- 19L. DíazF
- 21MoisésF
- 22Á. BarrealM
- 30M. TercerosM
- 38Rafael GonzagaD
- 47Mateus XavierF
- 79Joao LucioG
- 98A. FríasD
Bahia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luciano Juba(C) | D | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Willian Jose | F | 90 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Leo Vieira | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolás Acevedo | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | 2/2 |
| Caio Alexandre | M | 72 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Cristian Olivera | F | 73 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| Santiago Ramos Mingo | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Michel Araújo | M | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Erick Pulga | F | 89 | 6.5 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 2 | 3/3 |
| Gabriel Xavier | D | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jean Lucas | M | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Ademir | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Nestor | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kanu | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iago Borduchi | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauê Furquim | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Román Gómez | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateo Sanabria | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Everton Ribeiro | M | 45 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Gilberto | D | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Erick | M | 18 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Everaldo | F | 17 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Santos
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamín Rollheiser | M | 65 | 7.3 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2/6 |
| João Paulo Ananias | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Bontempo | M | 80 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Diogenes | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo Escobar | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Lucas Veríssimo(C) | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thaciano | M | 65 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Joao Schmidt | M | 89 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Christian Oliva | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| Mayke | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| Rony | F | 80 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Rafael Gonzaga | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robinho Júnior | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álvaro Barreal | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adonis Frías | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Pedro | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateus Xavier de Sousa | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Moisés | F | 10 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3/4 |
| Luan Peres | D | 10 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lautaro Díaz | F | 25 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Tomás Rincón | M | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguelito | M | 25 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Bahia vs Santos?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Bahia to win against Santos.
- What score did Fipster predict for Bahia vs Santos?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Bahia 2–1 Santos.
- What were the win probabilities for Bahia vs Santos?
- Fipster's model gave Bahia a 43% chance of winning, Santos a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 43% confidence — a low-confidence call.