Bahia vs Palmeiras
Match recap
Palmeiras beat Bahia 2–1 in their Serie A fixture. Duarte scored for Bahia; Arias and Ramos replied for Palmeiras. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.21 for Bahia versus 0.29 for Palmeiras. Bahia sit 7th in the Serie A table while Palmeiras are 1st.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-0 Bahia win
Actual
1–2
Outcome probability
Bahia and Palmeiras face off in what promises to be a closely contested match. Both teams have shown quality this season, but the prediction leans towards a narrow home win for Bahia.
Match factors
Luciano Juba's attacking threat from defense
Juba's 10 goals this season make him a unique scoring threat from defense, challenging Palmeiras' backline
Palmeiras' superior assist creators
Andreas Pereira leads with 10 assists, providing Palmeiras a creative edge over Bahia's midfield
Palmeiras' defensive solidity
Palmeiras concedes fewer goals on average and has key defensive stalwarts like Gustavo Gómez
J. López's consistent scoring against Bahia
López scored in recent matches vs Bahia, showing ability to exploit their defense
The context
Bahia currently sit 5th in their league with 49 points from 30 games, while Palmeiras are 2nd with 63 points. Historically, Palmeiras have had the upper hand in their 20 meetings, but recent form and home advantage could tilt the scales.
Key insights
Luciano Juba
Bahia
Juba's 10 goals this season make him a unique scoring threat from defence, challenging Palmeiras' backline.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 26 apps, 3 goals last 5 games
Andreas Pereira
Palmeiras
Andreas Pereira leads with 10 assists, providing Palmeiras a creative edge over Bahia's midfield.
Serie A 26/2710 assists in 29 apps
Analysis
Bahia's standout defender Luciano Juba has been a surprising attacking force with 10 goals this season, including 3 in the last 5 games, making him a key threat. Palmeiras boast creative midfielders like Andreas Pereira, who leads with 10 assists, but Bahia's defensive resilience and home advantage might just keep Palmeiras at bay. The predicted 1-0 halftime and fulltime scoreline reflects a tight match where defensive discipline will be crucial.
Key facts
- 1.Bahia are 5th in the league with 49 points from 30 games (W13 D10 L7).
- 2.Palmeiras are 2nd in the league with 63 points from 30 games (W18 D9 L3).
- 3.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Palmeiras have won 10, Bahia 3, with 7 draws.
- 4.Luciano Juba is Bahia's top scorer with 10 goals this season, including 3 in the last 5 games.
- 5.Andreas Pereira leads Palmeiras with 10 assists this season.
- 6.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 4.
- 7.The modal fulltime scoreline for a home win is 1-0.
Prediction
The forecast is for Bahia to secure a 1-0 victory, with the game likely decided by a single moment of quality or defensive lapse. Expect a total of around four cards, indicating a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Bahia
Away — Palmeiras
The verdict
While Palmeiras have the pedigree and creative spark, Bahia's home form and unique attacking contributions from defence give them the edge. This one looks finely balanced but ultimately tilts in favour of the home side.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 23:58 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Xavier
Yellow Card
Juba
Yellow Card
Arias
Assist: López
Arias
Yellow Card
Giay
Yellow Card
Duarte
Assist: Éverton Ribeiro
López
Arias
Maurício
Allan
Olivera
Everaldo
Caio Alexandre
Éverton Ribeiro
Arthur
Khellven
Yellow Card
Pulga
Ramos (OG)
Luighi Hanri
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 |  Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | +5 | 49 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
Match Statistics
Bahia
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 5N. AcevedoD
- 6Jean LucasM
- 8Caio AlexandreM
- 10Éverton RibeiroF
- 16Erick PulgaF
- 21S. RamosD
- 22Léo VieiraG
- 27EveraldoF
- 33David DuarteD
- 46Luciano JubaM
- 99C. OliveraM
Substitutes
- 2GilbertoD
- 3Gabriel XavierD
- 7AdemirF
- 11Rodrigo NestorM
- 12Willian JoséF
- 14ErickM
- 15M. AraújoM
- 25IagoD
- 31Roman GomezD
- 34João PauloG
- 43Luiz GustavoD
- 89DellF
Palmeiras
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 4A. GiayD
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 11J. AriasM
- 15G. GómezD
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 18MaurícioM
- 26MuriloD
- 40AllanM
- 42J. LópezF
- 56ArthurD
Substitutes
- 3Bruno FuchsD
- 7Felipe AndersonM
- 12KhellvenD
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 19R. SosaF
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 31Luighi HanriF
- 32E. MartínezM
- 43BenedettiD
- 48LarsonM
- 50Luis FelipeM
Bahia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Duarte | D | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | — |
| Everton Ribeiro(C) | F | 74 | 7.9 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1/3 |
| Erick Pulga | F | 85 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caio Alexandre | M | 69 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Cristian Olivera | M | 69 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Jean Lucas | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Léo Vieira | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Santiago Ramos Mingo | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Nicolás Acevedo | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Everaldo | F | 69 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | — | 2 | — |
| Luciano Juba | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Rodrigo Nestor | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Paulo | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Xavier | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Román Gómez | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luiz Gustavo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gilberto | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iago Borduchi | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ademir | F | 21 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Willian José | F | 21 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick | M | 21 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dell | F | 12 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Michel Araújo | M | 16 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
Palmeiras
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhon Arias | M | 60 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Andreas Pereira | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Murilo | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Miguel | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marlon Freitas | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Agustín Giay | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| Arthur Gabriel | D | 81 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Gustavo Gómez(C) | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mauricio | M | 60 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Allan | M | 64 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| José López | F | 60 | 6.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Larson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Pacheco | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Benedetti | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcelo Lomba | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Riquelme Fillipi | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emiliano Martínez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Fuchs | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ramón Sosa | F | 30 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/4 |
| Lucas Evangelista | M | 30 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Felipe Anderson | M | 26 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Khellven | D | 9 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luighi Hanri | F | 30 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Bahia vs Palmeiras?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Bahia to win against Palmeiras.
- What score did Fipster predict for Bahia vs Palmeiras?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Bahia 1–0 Palmeiras.
- What were the win probabilities for Bahia vs Palmeiras?
- Fipster's model gave Bahia a 36% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 36% confidence — a low-confidence call.