Bahia vs Mirassol
Match recap
Bahia beat Mirassol 1–0 in their Serie A fixture. Juba scored for Bahia; Reinaldo replied for Mirassol. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 3.23 for Bahia versus 1.10 for Mirassol. Bahia sit 7th in the Serie A table while Mirassol are 14th.
Outcome probability
Bahia and Mirassol face off in the 30th round of the regular season, with Bahia looking to extend their advantage in the league standings. Both teams have shown attacking intent in previous encounters, promising an engaging contest.
Match factors
Luciano Juba's scoring threat from defense
Luciano Juba is a prolific scoring defender with 9 goals this season, posing a unique threat on set pieces and open play.
Mirassol's Igor Formiga excels in assists
Igor Formiga leads Mirassol with 5 assists, showing strong recent form and set-piece delivery, enhancing their attacking options.
Bahia's Erick and Rodrigo Nestor in good form
Erick and Rodrigo Nestor have contributed multiple goals and assists recently, boosting Bahia's midfield creativity and scoring.
Bahia missing key goalkeeper Léo Vieira
Léo Vieira is confirmed out due to knee injury, potentially weakening Bahia's defensive stability.
Mirassol's Eduardo is a key offensive catalyst
Eduardo leads Mirassol's scoring with 6 goals, especially strong at home, critical for their attacking threat.
The context
Bahia currently sit 6th in the league with 46 points from 28 games, while Mirassol are 15th with 33 points from 29 matches. The goal difference also favours Bahia (+8 compared to Mirassol's -9), highlighting their stronger overall performance this season.
Key insights
Luciano Juba
Bahia
Luciano Juba is a prolific scoring defender with 9 goals this season, posing a unique threat on set pieces and open play.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 25 appearances, 0.36 avg per game
Igor Formiga
Mirassol
Igor Formiga leads Mirassol with 5 assists, showing strong recent form and set-piece delivery, enhancing their attacking options.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 25 appearances, 0.2 avg per game
Erick
Bahia
Erick has contributed 4 goals this season, scoring in recent matches, boosting Bahia's midfield creativity and scoring.
Serie A 26/274 goals in 22 appearances, 0.18 avg per game
Eduardo
Mirassol
Eduardo leads Mirassol's scoring with 6 goals, especially strong at home, critical for their attacking threat.
Serie A 26/276 goals in 20 appearances, 0.3 avg per game
Analysis
The head-to-head meetings between these sides have been lively affairs, averaging 3.7 goals per game. Bahia's top-scoring defender Luciano Juba, with 9 goals this season, poses a significant threat, especially on set pieces. Midfielders Erick and Rodrigo Nestor add creativity and goal contributions, enhancing Bahia's attacking options. Mirassol's Eduardo leads their scoring with 6 goals and is a key offensive outlet, supported by Igor Formiga's 5 assists, who excels in delivering quality balls from wide areas and set plays. However, Bahia's superior points per game and goal difference suggest they have the edge.
Key facts
- 1.Bahia rank 6th with 46 points from 28 games, Mirassol 15th with 33 points from 29 games.
- 2.Bahia have a +8 goal difference; Mirassol have -9, favouring Bahia's scoring potential.
- 3.Head-to-head matches average 3.7 total goals, indicating an open game.
- 4.Luciano Juba is the top-scoring defender with 9 goals this season for Bahia.
- 5.Mirassol's Eduardo leads their scoring with 6 goals this season.
- 6.Igor Formiga leads Mirassol with 5 assists, key in set-piece delivery.
- 7.Bahia have a points-per-game average of 1.64 compared to Mirassol's 1.14.
Prediction
We expect Bahia to take an early lead, reflected in a predicted 2-0 halftime score. Mirassol may pull one back in the second half, but Bahia should secure a 3-1 victory by fulltime, continuing their strong league form and capitalising on their attacking strengths.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Bahia
Away — Mirassol
The verdict
This match looks set to showcase Bahia's attacking prowess and Mirassol's resilience. While Mirassol have key players capable of causing trouble, Bahia's overall quality and form should see them comfortably through to a 3-1 win.
Prediction generated 9 Oct 2026, 02:26 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Goal cancelled
Penalty confirmed
Chico
Yellow Card
Walter
Yellow Card
Juba
Penalty
Chico
Silva
Alesson
Caio Alexandre
Marcos Victor
Jean Lucas
Yellow Card
Santos
Olivera
Rodrigo Nestor
Denilson
Carlos Eduardo
Yellow Card
Véliz
Neto Moura
Yellow Card
Penalty confirmed
Reinaldo
Missed Penalty
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 |  Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | +5 | 49 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
| 13 |  Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | -8 | 36 |
| 15 |  Vasco DA Gama | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | -7 | 35 |
Match Statistics
Bahia
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1RonaldoG
- 3Marco MorenoD
- 6Jean LucasM
- 8Caio AlexandreM
- 9A. VélizF
- 11Rodrigo NestorM
- 16Erick PulgaF
- 33David DuarteD
- 44Marcos VictorD
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 99C. OliveraF
Substitutes
- 4KanuD
- 7AdemirF
- 10Éverton RibeiroM
- 12Willian JoséF
- 14ErickM
- 15M. AraújoM
- 17G. HerreraG
- 18Lautaro LópezM
- 23M. SanabriaF
- 27EveraldoF
- 31Roman GomezD
- 66Zé GuilhermeD
Mirassol
4-3-3Starting XI
- 2Lucas OliveiraD
- 3Willian MachadoD
- 6ReinaldoD
- 10ChicoM
- 19Gustavo SilvaF
- 22WalterG
- 25Neto MouraM
- 27DenilsonM
- 30Bruno SantosF
- 32Igor FormigaD
- 77AlessonF
Substitutes
- 7ShaylonM
- 9André LuísF
- 12Victor LuísD
- 17FernandinhoF
- 20Daniel BorgesD
- 33EduardoM
- 44GabrielD
- 80WallissonM
- 90ThomazellaG
- 95EdsonF
- 96Carlos EduardoF
- 99Zé RobertoF
Bahia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Duarte | D | 90 | 8.0 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Luciano Juba | D | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Marcos Victor | D | 59 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/3 |
| Marco Moreno | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Roman Gomez | D | 31 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Caio Alexandre | M | 59 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Nestor | M | 73 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 3 | 0/2 |
| Ronaldo | G | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Éverton Ribeiro | M | 17 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Erick | M | 31 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick Pulga | F | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 2/4 |
| Willian José | F | 3 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Olivera | F | 72 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | — |
| A. Véliz | F | 87 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | — | 2 | — |
| Ademir | F | 18 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Jean Lucas | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| G. Herrera | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lautaro López | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zé Guilherme | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Sanabria | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Araújo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Everaldo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kanu | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Mirassol
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Formiga | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/4 |
| Willian Machado | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Denilson | M | 73 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Eduardo | M | 44 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Shaylon | M | 44 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Neto Moura | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| André Luís | F | 23 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Chico | M | 46 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Reinaldo | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Walter | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Oliveira | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Edson | F | 44 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Alesson | F | 46 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Gustavo Silva | F | 46 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Eduardo | F | 17 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Bruno Santos | F | 67 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Daniel Borges | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fernandinho | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thomazella | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wallisson | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zé Roberto | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Luís | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Bahia vs Mirassol?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Bahia to win against Mirassol.
- What score did Fipster predict for Bahia vs Mirassol?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Bahia 3–1 Mirassol.
- What were the win probabilities for Bahia vs Mirassol?
- Fipster's model gave Bahia a 85% chance of winning, Mirassol a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.