Bahia vs Internacional
Bahia edge Internacional in five-goal thriller
Erick Pulga's hat-trick powers Bahia to a narrow home victory.
Bahia overturned an early deficit to claim a 3-2 win over Internacional in a Serie A clash. Despite Alan Patrick's opener for Internacional, Erick Pulga stole the show with a first-half hat-trick, including a goal deep into stoppage time before the break. Vitinho's strike after the interval wasn't enough to rescue Internacional, as Bahia held on for the win. Fipster's prediction of a home win was spot on, though the scoreline was far more dramatic than the anticipated 2-0.
Outcome probability
Bahia and Internacional face off in a regular season encounter where the home side looks poised to extend their advantage in the league standings. With Bahia sitting comfortably higher and boasting a better goal difference, the stage is set for a disciplined and effective performance.
Match factors
Éverton Ribeiro's absence weakens Bahia's creativity
Éverton Ribeiro, Bahia's top assister with 4 assists this season, is confirmed out, reducing playmaking options
Luciano Juba's goal threat from defense
Luciano Juba leads Bahia with 7 goals, exceptional for a defender and a key scoring outlet
Bahia's strong home defensive record supports predicted clean sheet
Bahia concedes only 0.9 goals per home game, aiding their predicted 2-0 win
Jean Lucas's recent assist form boosts Bahia's attack
Jean Lucas has 1 assist in last 5 games and consistent minutes, enhancing creative midfield
Johan Carbonero's consistent scoring for Internacional
Carbonero has 6 goals this season, leading Internacional's attack despite team's struggles
The context
This match is part of the 2026 regular season, round 25. Bahia currently rank 6th with 34 points from 23 games, while Internacional are 16th with 25 points from 24 games. Historically, Internacional have had the upper hand in head-to-head meetings, but recent form and league position favour Bahia.
Key insights
Luciano Juba
Bahia
Top scoring defender with 7 goals, a key threat especially on set pieces and crucial to Bahia’s attack.
Serie A 26/277 goals in 20 appearances, avg 0.35 goals/game
Jean Lucas
Bahia
Creative midfielder with 3 assists this season, including a recent assist, boosting Bahia’s attacking options despite Ribeiro’s absence.
Serie A 26/273 assists in 22 appearances, 0.14 avg assists/game
J. Carbonero
Internacional
Leading Internacional’s attack with 6 goals this season, though the team’s struggles limit his impact.
Serie A 26/276 goals in 22 appearances, 0.27 avg goals/game
David Duarte
Bahia
Defender contributing both defensively and offensively with 3 goals and 1 assist, important in home matches.
Serie A 26/273 goals and 1 assist in 17 appearances
Analysis
Bahia's defensive solidity at home, conceding less than one goal per game, complements their offensive threat led by defender Luciano Juba, who tops their scoring charts with 7 goals. The absence of Bahia's key playmaker Éverton Ribeiro may reduce creativity, but Jean Lucas's recent assist form helps fill that gap. Internacional's attack, spearheaded by Johan Carbonero, faces a tough challenge against a well-organised Bahia defence. The predicted 2-0 scoreline aligns with the statistical probabilities and current form, suggesting a clean sheet for Bahia.
Key facts
- 1.Bahia rank 6th with 34 points from 23 games (W8 D10 L5).
- 2.Internacional rank 16th with 25 points from 24 games (W5 D10 L9).
- 3.Bahia have a significantly better goal difference (+8) than Internacional.
- 4.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Bahia have won 4, Internacional 12, with 4 draws.
- 5.Head-to-head matches average 2.3 total goals (17 for Bahia, 29 for Internacional).
- 6.Bahia concede only 0.9 goals per home game this season.
- 7.Luciano Juba is Bahia's top scorer with 7 goals this season.
- 8.Jean Lucas has provided 3 assists this season, including recent form.
Prediction
Expect Bahia to take an early lead, reflected in the predicted 1-0 halftime score, and maintain control to secure a 2-0 victory by full time. The match is likely to see moderate disciplinary action, with around four cards expected.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Bahia
Away — Internacional
The verdict
In summary, Bahia's superior league standing, goal difference, and home defensive record make them favourites to win this encounter. While Internacional will look to disrupt, the balance of form and key player contributions point towards a comfortable home win.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Alan Patrick
Assist: Maia
Yellow Card
Pulga
Assist: Acevedo
Bernabéi
Yellow Card
Olivera
Yellow Card
Pulga
Assist: Véliz
Erick
Vitinho
Assist: Alan Patrick
Maripán
Yellow Card
Olivera
Erick
Bernabéi
Maia
Roman Gomez
Yellow Card
Araújo
Yellow Card
Roman Gomez
Alan Patrick
Bahia
Rodrigo Nestor
Pulga
Vitinho
Duarte
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | +26 | 56 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | +8 | 43 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 17 |  Vasco DA Gama | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -12 | 28 |
| 18 |  Internacional | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | -5 | 28 |
| 19 |  Remo | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | -13 | 23 |
Match Statistics
Bahia
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1RonaldoG
- 5N. AcevedoM
- 9A. VélizF
- 11Rodrigo NestorM
- 14ErickM
- 16Erick PulgaF
- 21S. RamosD
- 31Roman GomezD
- 33David DuarteD
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 99C. OliveraF
Substitutes
- 3Marco MorenoD
- 4KanuD
- 7AdemirF
- 8Caio AlexandreM
- 12Willian JoséF
- 15M. AraújoM
- 17G. HerreraG
- 27EveraldoF
- 44Marcos VictorD
- 57Çağatay YılmazM
- 66Zé GuilhermeD
- 77Ruan PabloF
Internacional
5-3-2Starting XI
- 3G. MaripánD
- 4F. TorresD
- 6Matheus BahiaD
- 8Bruno HenriqueM
- 10Alan PatrickF
- 16RonaldoM
- 23Matheus CunhaG
- 26A. BernabéiD
- 28VitinhoF
- 29Thiago MaiaM
- 35B. AguirreD
Substitutes
- 5R. VillagraM
- 7J. CarboneroF
- 9AlerrandroF
- 12AnthoniG
- 17N. EliassonM
- 18JuninhoD
- 19A. SanabriaF
- 30CalebeM
- 44Victor JoaoF
- 46Pedro KauãD
- 52Gabriel ViniciusM
- 53L. F. de Morais FranciscoD
Bahia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erick Pulga | F | 50 | 8.9 | 2 | — | 3 | 3 | — | 3/4 |
| Cristian Olivera | F | 50 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| Alejo Véliz | F | 50 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Luciano Juba | D | 50 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Rodrigo Nestor | M | 50 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Erick | M | 50 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Nicolás Acevedo(C) | M | 50 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| David Duarte | D | 50 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Ronaldo | G | 50 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Santiago Ramos Mingo | D | 50 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Román Gómez | D | 50 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Guido Herrera | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kanu | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Everaldo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Willian José | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Michel Araújo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marco Moreno | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caio Alexandre | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Victor | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| José Guilherme | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ruan Pablo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauê Furquim | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ademir | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Internacional
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Patrick(C) | F | 50 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Thiago Maia | M | 50 | 6.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Matheus Bahia | D | 50 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Ronaldo | M | 50 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Henrique | M | 50 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Guillermo Maripán | D | 50 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Vitinho | F | 50 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Félix Torres | D | 50 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Matheus Cunha | G | 50 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Braian Aguirre | D | 50 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Alexandro Bernabei | D | 50 | 5.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Antonio Sanabria | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Villagra | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alerrandro | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jose Juninho | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Johan Carbonero | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Niclas Eliasson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Calebe Gonçalves | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Anthoni | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Kauã | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Victor Alves de Morais Francisco | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luiz Felipe | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Vinicius | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |