Bahia vs Fluminense
Match recap
Bahia and Fluminense drew 1–1 in their Serie A fixture. Olivera scored for Bahia; John Kennedy replied for Fluminense. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.20 for Bahia versus 2.02 for Fluminense. Bahia sit 7th in the Serie A table while Fluminense are 5th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-1 Bahia win
Actual
1–1
Outcome probability
Bahia and Fluminense face off in what promises to be an entertaining encounter. While Fluminense have shown consistency in scoring, Bahia's home form and attacking prowess suggest they will take control and secure a strong victory.
Match factors
Luciano Juba's scoring threat from defense
Juba's 9 goals this season make him a unique scoring threat from defense, especially at home
Bahia's strong home scoring form
Bahia averages 1.57 goals per home game, above league average, supporting predicted 4 goals
Fluminense's consistent scoring streak
Fluminense has scored in last 5 games, showing offensive consistency despite predicted loss
Fluminense missing key striker John Kennedy
Kennedy is out injured, reducing Fluminense's attacking options and scoring potential
Éverton Ribeiro's creative influence
Ribeiro leads Bahia in assists and is key to unlocking Fluminense's defense
The context
This fixture is part of the regular season's second round in the league. Bahia currently sit 6th with a solid home scoring record, while Fluminense are 3rd with a better overall goal difference. Past meetings have been fairly balanced, but recent form and home advantage tilt the scales.
Key insights
Luciano Juba
Bahia
Juba's 9 goals this season make him a unique scoring threat from defence, especially at home where he thrives on set-pieces.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 25 appearances this season
Éverton Ribeiro
Bahia
Ribeiro's 4 assists highlight his creative influence, crucial for unlocking Fluminense's defence.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 19 appearances this season
Analysis
Bahia's attacking threat is led by Luciano Juba, whose nine goals this season make him a standout performer, especially at home. Éverton Ribeiro's creativity in midfield further enhances their offensive options. Fluminense, despite their consistent scoring streak, face a challenge with the absence of key striker John Kennedy, which diminishes their attacking firepower. The predicted halftime score of 2-0 aligns with the expected fulltime result of 4-1, reflecting Bahia's dominance from the outset.
Key facts
- 1.Bahia rank 6th in the league with 46 points from 29 games (W12 D10 L7).
- 2.Fluminense are 3rd with 51 points from 29 games (W14 D9 L6).
- 3.Bahia average 1.57 goals per home game, above the league average.
- 4.Luciano Juba has scored 9 goals this season, a remarkable tally for a defender.
- 5.Éverton Ribeiro leads Bahia with 4 assists this season, key to their creativity.
- 6.Fluminense's John Kennedy is out injured, reducing their attacking options.
- 7.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Bahia have won 6, Fluminense 8, with 6 draws.
Prediction
Expect Bahia to start strongly and maintain pressure, leading to a 2-0 halftime advantage. Their superior home form and attacking depth should see them extend the lead comfortably, finishing the match 4-1. Fluminense may find the net once but will struggle to contain Bahia's offensive threats.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Bahia
Away — Fluminense
No standout top scorers flagged for Fluminense
The verdict
In summary, Bahia's combination of home advantage, key players in form, and Fluminense's injury setbacks point to a decisive home win. Fans can anticipate an entertaining match with plenty of goals, but ultimately Bahia will have the last laugh.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:27 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
John Kennedy
Assist: Nonato
Nonato
Yellow Card
Nonato
Acevedo
Jean Lucas
Pulga
Jemmes
Yellow Card
Ademir
Olivera
Willian José
Acosta
Serna
Card upgrade
Dell
Red Card
Renê
Martinelli
Lima
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 |  Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | +5 | 49 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
Match Statistics
Bahia
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1RonaldoG
- 2GilbertoD
- 6Jean LucasM
- 7AdemirF
- 10Éverton RibeiroM
- 12Willian JoséF
- 16Erick PulgaF
- 21S. RamosD
- 26N. AcevedoM
- 33David DuarteD
- 46Luciano JubaD
Substitutes
- 3Gabriel XavierD
- 4KanuD
- 5RezendeM
- 11Rodrigo NestorM
- 14ErickM
- 19Caio AlexandreM
- 23M. SanabriaF
- 25IagoD
- 31Roman GomezD
- 34João PauloG
- 89DellF
- 99C. OliveraF
Fluminense
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1FábioG
- 2Samuel XavierD
- 3JemmesD
- 6RenêD
- 8MartinelliM
- 16NonatoM
- 17A. CanobbioM
- 22J. FreytesD
- 32L. AcostaM
- 90K. SernaM
- 99John KennedyF
Substitutes
- 4IgnacioD
- 5F. BernalM
- 10PH GansoM
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 23GugaD
- 30S. MorenoF
- 45LimaM
- 94OtávioM
- 98Vitor EudesG
Bahia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Duarte | D | 100 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Luciano Juba | D | 100 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Ademir | F | 69 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Everton Ribeiro(C) | M | 100 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/3 |
| Gilberto | D | 100 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Willian José | F | 80 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Santiago Ramos Mingo | D | 100 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Nicolás Acevedo | M | 62 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Jean Lucas | M | 62 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/3 |
| Ronaldo | G | 100 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick Pulga | F | 62 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Iago Borduchi | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Nestor | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Paulo | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kanu | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rezende | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Xavier | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Román Gómez | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cristian Olivera | F | 38 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Mateo Sanabria | F | 31 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| Erick | M | 38 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caio Alexandre | M | 38 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dell | F | 8 | 5.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
Fluminense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonato | M | 60 | 8.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | — |
| John Kennedy | F | 100 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2/4 |
| Renê | D | 89 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/4 |
| Samuel Xavier(C) | D | 100 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Matheus Martinelli | M | 89 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Fábio | G | 100 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jemmes | D | 100 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Juan Freytes | D | 100 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Luciano Acosta | M | 79 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Kevin Serna | M | 79 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 4/5 |
| Agustín Canobbio | M | 100 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2/5 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Otávio | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Rabello | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guga | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ignácio | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Eudes | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Reis | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wesley Natã | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Arana | D | 11 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Facundo Bernal | M | 40 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ganso | M | 21 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Lima | M | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Santiago Moreno | F | 21 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Bahia vs Fluminense?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Bahia to win against Fluminense.
- What score did Fipster predict for Bahia vs Fluminense?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Bahia 4–1 Fluminense.
- What were the win probabilities for Bahia vs Fluminense?
- Fipster's model gave Bahia a 95% chance of winning, Fluminense a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.